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Cards look to avoid elimination in Game 4 Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/13/2015  at  11:06:00 AM
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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (102-63)

at CHICAGO CUBS (100-63)

First pitch: Monday, 4:35 p.m. ET
NL Division Series – Game 4
Line: St. Louis +105, Chicago -115, Total: 7.5

The Cubs will be looking to close out the series when they host the Cardinals in Game 4 on Tuesday.

St. Louis was the best team in baseball during the regular season, but the team now finds itself on the ropes heading into Tuesday’s meeting with Chicago. The Cardinals are one game away from elimination and will need to defeat a Cubs team that simply hasn’t been losing very much recently. Chicago has won 11 of its past 12 games dating back to the regular season and is playing with a ton of confidence. The Cardinals, however, will be sending the better of the two starting pitchers to the mound in this one. RHP John Lackey (14-10, 2.68 ERA, 180 K) will be toeing the rubber for St. Louis and he’s going up against RHP Jason Hammel (10-7, 3.74 ERA, 172 K), who has not yet pitched this postseason. The Cardinals will still feel confident heading into this one, as the team is 84-51 versus NL teams with an on base percentage of .325 or worse. They are also 10-4 against the money line when playing against a winning team with Lackey on the mound. The Cubs, meanwhile, are 29-11 against the money line versus poor baserunning teams that average 0.5 or less stolen bases per game during the second half of the season. C Yadier Molina (Thumb) is questionable for St. Louis in this game and SS Addison Russell (Hamstring) is questionable for Chicago.

The Cardinals got a tough matchup with this dangerous Cubs team and John Lackey will do everything in his power to send this series to a Game 5 in St. Louis. Lackey was absolutely brilliant in Game 1 of this series, allowing no earned runs in 7.1 innings of work. Lackey threw just 86 pitches in that game and struck out five batters. He should be relatively well rested for this one after keeping his pitch count under 90 on Friday. One player that could be an x-factor for the Cards on Tuesday is SS Jhonny Peralta (.275, 17 HR, 71 RBI). Peralta has been very good against Hammel in his career, going 9-for-23 with two homers, two doubles and eight RBI against the pitcher. Anything he can add offensively would be a major bonus for this team in this game. OFs Jason Heyward (.293, 13 HR, 60 RBI) and Stephen Piscotty (.305, 7 HR, 39 RBI) will also need to come through for their team once again. They combined to go 4-for-8 and each had a homer and two RBI against the Cubs on Monday. Both are being counted on to provide offense and they can’t disappear with the season on the line on Tuesday.

Jason Hammel will be making his fourth career playoff start on Tuesday, but it is his first of the year. In his most recent start against the Cardinals, Hammel allowed three earned runs in six innings of work. It was not a bad outing for the pitcher, but he will likely need to be better with Lackey starting for St. Louis. If the Cubs are going to win then 3B Kris Bryant (.275, 26 HR, 99 RBI), 1B Anthony Rizzo (.278, 31 HR, 101 RBI) and SS Starlin Castro (.265, 11 HR, 69 RBI) will need to step it up at the plate against Lackey. The three of them are a combined 6-for-33 with no homers and just two RBI against the starter in their careers, but they are also the guys that have been consistently producing for Chicago in this series. Castro specifically is 4-for-8 with a homer over the past two games and has provided a major spark to a team that really was beginning to doubt him midway through the season. OF Kyle Schwarber (.246, 16 HR, 43 RBI) is no guarantee to play in this game, but if he does then he will also be counted on to provide a spark. He has homered twice since the start of the playoffs and is an excellent source of power for Chicago.


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