StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

#15 Stanford hosts #18 UCLA Thursday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/14/2015  at  7:38:00 AM
  Print This Article    

UCLA BRUINS (2-3)
at STANFORD CARDINAL (3-2)

Stanford Stadium - Stanford, CA
Kickoff: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -7, Total: 54.5

No. 15 Stanford tries to remain unbeaten in Pac-12 play when it hosts No. 18 UCLA on Thursday night.

The Bruins (2-2-1 ATS) are still stewing from their lone loss in 2015 that came in the last game on Oct. 3, a 38-23 home defeat to 13-point underdog Arizona State. The Cardinal (4-1 ATS) won their fourth straight game (SU and ATS) on that Oct. 3 date when they destroyed Arizona 55-17 by racking up 570 total yards of offense. Stanford has completely owned this series with seven straight wins (6-1 ATS) over UCLA, with the average win margin being a hefty 17.9 PPG. The Cardinal rolled to a 31-10 win in Los Angeles last season with a dominant 37:49 time of possession. Those expecting the Bruins to win in Stanford for the first time since 2007 can point to the fact that road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 42-11 ATS (79%) since 1992 in conference games off an upset loss as a double-digit home favorite, or that the school is 6-0 ATS after a bye week in the past three seasons. But the Cardinal are 10-1 ATS after a turnover-free game under head coach David Shaw and home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after a win by 35+ points facing an opponent after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored are 50-18 ATS (74%) since 1992. On the injury front, both schools are pretty healthy after the bye, but UCLA recently lost WR Mossi Johnson (knee) for the season, P Adam Searl (legal) indefinitely and has two questionable players in LB Jayon Brown (back) and OL Poasi Moala (hand). Stanford has three defenders all listed as questionable for Thursday -- DL Nate Lohn (undisclosed) and LBs Kevin Anderson (ankle) and Noor Davis (leg).

Can Stanford retain its dominance over UCLA on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

UCLA's potent offense (34.8 PPG, 454 total YPG) has been even more impressive in two road games this season with 46.5 PPG on 512 total YPG. A big part of this discrepancy has been time of possession, as the Bruins average only 25:57 for the season, but 31:11 away from home. Both the ground game (199 YPG, 5.1 YPC) and air attack (255 YPG, 7.1 YPA) have been effective in 2015, and freshman QB Josh Rosen (1,244 pass yds., 7.4 YPA, 9 TD, 5 INT) continues to improve. After throwing 4 INT in his first three games, he has tossed 4 TD with only one pick in his two Pac-12 games, averaging 8.3 YPA. Rosen has also done a nice job staying upright with only five sacks absorbed all year. Only two Bruins have triple-digit receiving yards this season, WRs Jordan Payton (25 rec, 392 yds. 3 TD) and Thomas Duarte (18 rec, 274 yds, 4 TD). The senior Payton is averaging a career-high 15.7 yards per catch, but was held to 12.2 with six receptions for 73 yards the last time out. But in that same game, the junior Duarte torched Arizona State for a season-high 101 yards on six grabs (16.8 avg) and 2 TD. Duarte also produced a game-high 63 receiving yards and 1 TD in the loss to Stanford last year. Junior RB Paul Perkins has comprised most of the ground game with 577 yards on 5.8 YPC with 7 TD. Although he has been slowed by conference opponents, gaining only 3.5 YPC, he does have four scores in those two contests. Perkins had a strong game against the Cardinal last season with 116 yards on 17 totes (6.8 YPC). The UCLA defense has held teams to 22.0 PPG and 382 total YPG, and has been very effective in slowing down opposing quarterbacks (185 YPG, 5.2 YPA). But Stanford is a great running team and the Bruins are surrendering 197 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC. UCLA has forced eight turnovers in five games, including at least one takeaway in all five contests, but the Cardinal have not turned the ball over in three of their past four games.

Stanford's offense is averaging a strong 35.0 PPG on 453 total YPG (6.7 yards per play), but those numbers have jumped considerably in the past three contests with 46.0 PPG on 511 total YPG (7.5 yards per play). For the season, the team has been nicely balanced with 210 rushing YPG on 5.0 YPC with 243 passing YPG on a hefty 9.6 YPA. Senior QB Kevin Hogan has been on a roll with 2+ TD passes in four straight games. He was nearly perfect versus Arizona in the last game when he completed 17-of-19 passes for 217 yards (11.4 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT. His numbers just as impressive at UCLA last year when he connected on 16-of-19 throws for 234 yards (12.3 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT. Hogan has been so successful this season because he has spread the wealth with five Cardinal receivers surpassing 150 yards already. Senior WR Michael Rector leads the team with 233 receiving yards and 3 TD while sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey has a team-high 15 catches. But it has been McCaffrey's running ability that has made him so special this year, rolling up three straight games of 115+ rushing yards in conference play where he has 477 yards on 6.5 YPC. In the rout in L.A. last season, McCaffrey produced 85 total yards on just 12 touches. The Cardinal have also gotten big performances out of senior RB Barry Sanders the past two weeks with 173 yards on only 11 carries (15.7 YPC) and three touchdowns from 65, 65 and 11 yards out. The Stanford defense has been stingy all season in limiting teams to 19.0 PPG and 328 total YPG. In two home games, the numbers are a miniscule 12.0 PPG and 248 total YPG allowed. With the offense holding the ball for more than 35 minutes per game this year, the defense doesn't have to be on the field long. The unit has been especially strong in stopping the run (128 YPG on 3.5 YPC), with pedestrian pass defense numbers (200 YPG on 54% completions and 6.2 YPA). If the Cardinal could force more turnovers (just three takeaways over five games), these numbers would be even lower.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: