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High-powered Packers host Chargers Sunday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 10/17/2015  at  4:32:00 PM
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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (2-3)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -10.5, Total: 50.5

The Packers, riding an improving defense complementing star QB Aaron Rodgers, will have that defense put to the test by the right arm of Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

San Diego (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) comes into Sunday’s matchup on the heels of a heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Steelers and Le’Veon Bell, whose 1-yard touchdown run as time expired on Monday night gave Pittsburgh a 24-20 win. The Chargers put up at least 350 yards for the fifth straight time to begin the season, but were unable to hold leads on three separate occasions. Green Bay (5-0 SU and ATS) kept its early season defensive success going last Sunday, forcing four turnovers in a 24-10 home win against the Rams, as their points allowed fell to 16.2 PPG, good for third-best in the league. A potential X-factor for Sunday's game will be which team’s defense better establishes its ability to stop the run. Green Bay was 28th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (130 YPG) and San Diego was 29th (132 YPG) through the end of Week 5. Bettors can be confident to wager on either side on Sunday, as the Chargers are 25-12 ATS on the road versus good passing teams (7+ YPA) since 1992, but the Packers are 14-4 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons, including 9-2 ATS at home. They are also 8-0 ATS at home in the first half of the season since 2013, outscoring these visitors by a hefty 15.9 PPG. Injuries of note for the Chargers include LB Manti Te’o (ankle), WR Stevie Johnson (hamstring), and OLs Chris Watt (concussion), King Dunlap (concussion), Orlando Franklin (ankle) and D.J. Fluker (ankle), all of whom saw limited or no practice time Wednesday and Thursday. Injuries of note for the Packers include and WRs James Jones (hamstring) and Davante Adams (ankle), Bryan Bulaga, S Morgan Burnett (calf), DT B.J. Raji (groin) and G T.J. Lang (knee), all of whom were limited in or did not practice Wednesday and Thursday. LB Nick Perry has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury.

Can the Packers win and cover the monster spread on Sunday? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the experts have a collective 55% ATS record (40-33-1) in NFL Best Bets, led by StatFox Dave's huge 65% ATS mark (13-7). StatFox Gary has a 56% ATS record (10-8) in NFL Best Bets and 55% ATS (6-5) in Totals, while StatFox Scott is sizzling in NFL Totals this season at 71% (12-5).

The Chargers offense has fallen almost entirely on the shoulders of QB Philip Rivers, who led the league in completions and passing yards, even without the services of suspended TE Antonio Gates for the first four weeks of the season. His 365 yards against the Steelers last week was his third performance of 350+ yards this season. One big reason for Rivers’ Gates-less success is WR Keenan Allen, who hadn’t recorded more than 77 catches in either of his first two full seasons in the league, but has 39 receptions, good for third in the NFL. While the air attack has been strong in 2015, the Chargers need to improve their ground game that has topped 95 yards just once all season. First-round draft pick RB Melvin Gordon has rushed for 270 yards on just 3.8 YPC and does not have a rushing touchdown all season. Although the run-stop unit has deservedly earned the most scorn on the San Diego defense, the secondary hasn't been great either in allowing 219 passing YPG on 7.4 YPA and 63% completions. These numbers are not likely to improve against the reigning league MVP on Sunday.

Despite two interceptions from star QB Aaron Rodgers, whose home interception-less streak ended after 587 passing attempts and 49 touchdowns, the Packers still improved to 33-2 SU in their past 35 home games when they topped the Rams last week. Green Bay's offense is averaging 27.4 PPG on 363 total YPG this year thanks largely to Rodgers who has thrown for 247 YPG on 71% completions with 13 TD and only 2 INT. For his career, Rodgers is 47-24 ATS as the favorite, including 29-11 as the home favorite. The Packers have been a strong running team this season too with 126 YPG on 4.2 YPC, but are coming off a season-low 86 yards on 27 carries versus the Rams. Green Bay's resurgent defense has recorded eight interceptions (T-2nd in NFL) and 20 sacks (2nd in league), while ranking seventh in YPG allowed (316 YPG). This is also a very opportunistic unit with four takeaways last week to increase the season total to nine forced turnovers.


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