Centennial Bank Stadium - Jonesboro, AR
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Arkansas State -6.5

A clash between two Sun Belt schools undefeated in conference play will occur Tuesday night in Jonesboro, AR when Louisiana-Lafayette visits Arkansas State.

Both schools have scored exactly 49 points in in all conference games this season, as the Ragin' Cajuns blew out Texas State 49-27 on Oct. 10, and the Red Wolves knocked off 22-point underdog Idaho 49-35 on Oct. 13 before winning by a similar 49-31 score at South Alabama last Tuesday. UL-Lafayette is now 3-2 ATS for the season (1-1 ATS on road) and Arkansas State is 3-3 ATS this year (2-1 ATS at home). These Sun Belt foes are meeting for the 12th consecutive year with the home team prevailing in eight of those dozen matchups. While half of these 12 contests have been decided by single-digits, the past three meetings have all been lopsided. The Red Wolves won 50-27 on the road in 2012, and the Ragin' Cajuns prevailed 23-7 on the road in 2013 and 55-40 at home last season in a shootout that featured 1,116 total yards of offense (672 rushing yards). Nearly all of the top betting trends expect UL-Lafayette to win again, at least ATS. The school is 14-4 ATS on the road in the second half of the season under head coach Mark Hudspeth, and college football underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after a double-digit conference win facing an opponent coming off a game where both teams scored 31+ points are 42-14 ATS since 1992. Although Arkansas State is a dreadful 7-25 ATS versus good rushing teams (4.75 YPC) since 1992, the school is also 10-5 ATS at home in the past three seasons, including 9-5 ATS as a home favorite. The Ragin' Cajuns are coming off a bye, but they still have five players questionable with injuries in RB Montrel Carter (shin), K Carlos Alvarez (hip) and DBs Christian Goodlett (shoulder), T.J. Worthy (hamstring) and Troy McCollum (ankle). With starting QB Fredi Knighten (groin) having returned last week, the Red Wolves are only concerned with OL Daniel Keith, who is questionable with an ankle injury.

Which school will remain atop the Sun Belt standings on Tuesday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are coming off a huge week in Best Bets where they were a collective 63% ATS (19-11). StatFox Gary was 5-1 ATS to improve to 54% ATS (21-18-1) for the season, and StatFox Brian was also 5-1 ATS on Best Bets for the week.

Louisiana-Lafayette's offense has been strong with 30.8 PPG and 434 total YPG (6.2 yards per play), but those numbers are significantly worse on the road (23.5 PPG, 405 total YPG, 5.3 yards per play). Mistakes have been a major key for this team, which has zero giveaways in two wins and 11 turnovers in three losses. Junior QB Jalen Nixon is coming off his best game of the season versus Texas State when he completed 22-of-29 passes for 238 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT. He has also done a great job running the football in the past two games with 99 yards on 16 carries (6.2 YPC) and 2 TD. But the big reason this team is averaging a strong 231 rushing YPG is the feet of senior RB Elijah McGuire (585 rush yds, 6.0 YPC, 7 TD). McGuire ran for 170 yards on 6.1 YPC and 1 TD against Texas State and totaled 154 yards on 18 touches in the most recent road game at Louisiana Tech on Oct. 3. McGuire was clearly the star of the rout versus Arkansas State last year when he carried the ball 19 times for 265 yards (13.9 YPC) and four touchdowns from 74, 54, 43 and 13 yards out. Defensively, UL-Lafayette has had problems stopping opponents all year with 32.4 PPG allowed on 408 total YPG (6.0 yards per play). This includes surrendering 41.5 PPG on the road and 35.0 PPG in the past three contests. A subpar run-stop unit (189 YPG, 4.8 YPC) and generous secondary (220 pass YPG, 7.6 YPA) are both to blame for the large number of points allowed so far. Another reason for the deficiency is a lack of turnovers, as the Cajuns have only four takeaways through five games. They need to have that number rise quickly, especially playing a turnover-prone opponent with 16 giveaways in six games in 2015.

Arkansas State's offense has been strong this season with 33.5 PPG on 386 total YPG, and these numbers are even more impressive in three home games (46.3 PPG, 454 total YPG). The team has displayed great balance all season with 198 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC and 188 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA. Senior RB Michael Gordon had only six carries last week, but opened October with a monster performance against Idaho where he ran for 221 yards on 26 carries (8.5 YPC) and three touchdowns. Gordon was also outstanding in last year's loss to Louisiana-Lafayette with 134 rushing yards on 15 carries (8.9 YPC) and a touchdown. Senior QB Fredi Knighten was also huge in that 2014 meeting with 405 total yards (344 passing, 61 rushing) and 4 touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing). After missing three games with a groin injury, Knighten showed no rust in last week's win at South Alabama when he completed 10-of-17 passes for 117 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Another senior, WR JD McKissic, also did some damage in Lafayette last year (7 rec, 99 yds), but didn't do much last week with a season-low two catches for 27 yards. Defensively, this unit has surrendered 32.0 PPG on 376 total YPG, but these numbers have been much better in three home games (23.0 PPG and 322 total YPG). The biggest deficiency has been stopping opposing quarterbacks who have thrown for 229 YPG. But after giving up 140+ rushing yards in each of the first five games, the run defense was outstanding last week in holding South Alabama to 29 yards on 32 carries. The Red Wolves also forced another five turnovers in last week's win, giving them 15 takeaways over the past five games.