Divisional rivals New York (4-1 SU and ATS) and New England (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) meet in Foxboro this Sunday in a battle for first place in the AFC East between the league’s best defense (NYJ) and offense (NE). The Jets, under new head coach Todd Bowles, have already matched last season’s win total, handily dispatching the Redskins 34-20 at home last week. The undefeated Patriots have scored 28+ points in all five wins, including knocking off their 2014 AFC Championship foe the Colts by a 34-27 score in Indianapolis on Sunday night. New England holds a 30-18 SU advantage over its opponent since 1992, though New York is 24-22-2 ATS over the same period. In the past two seasons, the Jets are 4-0 ATS against the Pats, despite being just 1-3 in SU matchups. Though New England won both regular-season games against New York last year, it did so by just three combined points. Several compelling trends favor New England this week. The team is 8-1 ATS against excellent offensive teams (averaging 375+ YPG) and 7-0 ATS after playing a game where 60+ total points were scored over the past two seasons. The Jets may be missing a few players Sunday, as WR Chris Owusu (knee), S Jaiquawn Jarrett (knee), and DB Marcus Williams (hamstring) are all listed as questionable. The notoriously tight-lipped Patriots will be monitoring the health of several of their players this week, as RB LeGarrette Blount (undisclosed), C Ryan Wendall (illness), LB Dont’a Hightower (ribs), DL Trey Flowers (shoulder), and OT Marcus Cannon (toe) are questionable to play, while CB Tarell Brown (foot) has been added to the IR for the season.
Can the Patriots remain unbeaten and cover a monster spread against the Jets? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the experts have a collective 60% ATS record (52-35-2) in NFL Best Bets, including an 86% ATS success rate (12-2-1) in Week 6. StatFox Dave is leading the charge at 71% ATS (17-7) this season, while StatFox Brian is 59% ATS (13-9-1) and StatFox Gary is 55% ATS (11-9-1). StatFox Scott continues to thrive in NFL Totals this season at 65% (13-7).
New York’s offense has been surprisingly effective this season, after languishing at the bottom of the league the past three years. The Jets are averaging 25.8 PPG against their opponents (7th out of 32) and a league-leading 146 rushing YPG on the strength of RB Chris Ivory, who is on pace for the best season of his six-year career with 460 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and four touchdowns. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been hitting his targets 62.6% of the time, connecting most frequently with veteran WR Brandon Marshall (37 catches, 511 yards, 4 TD), an off-season acquisition from the Bears. He'll try to help Fitzpatrick overcome his career struggles against the Patriots, where he's posted a 1-6 SU record (3-3 ATS) and tossed 17 interceptions, with most of the games occurring during his tenure with the Bills. Gang Green also boasts the league’s best defense, leading all teams in points allowed (15.0 PPG), yards allowed (269 YPG), and turnovers generated (15). The team has been particularly solid on the road, limiting opponents to 10.5 PPG and a scant 25:24 average time of possession.
With QB Tom Brady at the helm, New England’s offense is playing like a team possessed, handily dispatching each of its opponents in the first five weeks. Surrounded by an arsenal of offensive weapons both familiar (WR Julian Edelman, TE Rob Gronkowski, and WR Danny Amendola) and new (RB Dion Lewis and TE Scott Chandler), Brady’s offense has averaged a league-best 36.6 PPG, with Brady completing 70.6% of his passes for 1,699 yards, 14 TD and only one interception. Brady has feasted on New York during his career, leading his team to a 19-6 SU record (13-11 ATS), though his opponents have been able to hold him and his team to a (relatively) low 25 PPG (6.1 PPG lower than Brady’s career average). If the Patriots have any relative weaknesses, it’s their defense, which has allowed 356 YPG (17th out of 32) and nine touchdowns through the air (21st out of 32). Even so, the team has notched 19 sacks and hasn’t allowed an opposing rusher to reach the end zone since Week 2.
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