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USC hosts #3 Utah on Saturday night
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/23/2015  at  8:01:00 PM
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UTAH UTES (6-0)
at USC TROJANS (3-3)

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: USC -3.5, Total: 61

No. 3 Utah tries to remain unbeaten when it travels to slumping USC on Saturday night.

The Utes improved to 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) with a 34-18 victory over Arizona State last week where they held their opponent to 15 rushing yards on 28 carries. That same night, the Trojans fell 41-31 at Notre Dame, giving them three losses (SU and ATS) in their past four games and dropped the school to 3-3 (SU and ATS) for the season. That was the first game for interim head coach Clay Helton who was promoted from offensive coordinator to replace Steve Sarkisian. These schools are meeting for the fifth time as Pac-12 foes with USC going 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in the previous four. But that one Utah win came last season when it scored a touchdown with eight seconds left to pull out a 24-21 victory. Plenty of betting trends point towards another win for the Utes on Saturday, including their 6-0 ATS record versus good offenses (5.9+ yards per play) in the past two seasons and 6-0 ATS mark on the road coming off an SU win in this same timeframe. But the Trojans don't usually lose twice in a row, going 9-1 ATS after an SU loss in the past three seasons with that one defeat coming last week. Both schools are riddled with injuries for this contest, as Utah lost three players to season-ending injuries last week -- DB Jordan Fogal (knee) and TEs Evan Moeai (leg) and Siale Fakailoatonga (knee) -- while WR Tim Patrick (undisclosed) and LB Jared Norris (knee) are both questionable for Saturday. Southern Cal lost WR Issac Whitney (collarbone) indefinitely last game and has five other injuries with OL Chad Wheeler (concussion) and DT Claude Pelon (knee) both doubtful and WRs Steven Mitchell (ankle), Jalen Greene (undisclosed) and Darreus Rogers (hamstring) all questionable for Saturday.

Can USC hand Utah its first loss of the season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are coming off a huge week in Best Bets where they were a collective 63% ATS (19-11). StatFox Gary was 5-1 ATS to improve to 54% ATS (21-18-1) for the season, and StatFox Brian was also 5-1 ATS on Best Bets for the week.

Utah's offense has been solid this season with 36.5 PPG on 396 total YPG, but those numbers spike to 53.5 PPG and 455 total YPG in two road games. The Utes do a great job of controlling the clock with a 33:59 average time of possession and are incredibly balanced with 204 passing YPG (7.0 YPA) and 192 rushing YPG (4.6 YPC). Senior QB Travis Wilson doesn't have eye-popping numbers with 980 passing yards (7.2 YPA), 7 TD and 3 INT, and wasn't great versus USC last year either (194 pass yds, 27 rush yds). But he still threw the game-winning touchdown in the final seconds versus the Trojans, and this season has a 68% completion rate, 203 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and 3 TD. The leader in this category is senior RB Devontae Booker who has 783 yards (4.9 YPC) and eight touchdowns on the ground plus 23 catches for 208 yards through the air. Last week versus Arizona State Booker topped 115 yards with 2 TD for the third time in four games. He also ran for 102 yards (3.9 YPC) and a touchdown in the win over USC in the 2014 victory. The Utah defense has held opponents to 19.5 PPG and 370 total YPG this season, and has been especially tough in stopping the run (113 YPG, 3.7 YPC). But opponents have thrown for 256 YPG (6.6 YPA) on the Utes, and the Trojans racked up 440 passing yards last week. But turnovers are always a key, and Utah has done a phenomenal job in creating mistakes with at least two takeaways in all six games, totaling 19 forced turnovers for the season.

USC did not turn the football over in any of its first three games of 2015, but has seven giveaways in the past three weeks. Despite the miscues, the school still averages 38.3 PPG on 511 total YPG (7.5 yards per play) of offense this season. Throwing the football is the Trojans' preferred method of moving the pigskin, but they are also a strong running team with 174 YPG on 5.3 YPC. Senior QB Cody Kessler started the season with 15 TD and 1 INT in four games, but has thrown just 2 TD with 4 INT over the past two weeks. Despite the slump, he's still completing 69% of his passes for 9.2 YPA this season. Kessler also played well at Utah last year with 24-of-32 completions for 264 yards (8.3 YPA), 2 TD and 1 INT. One of those touchdowns went to WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, who caught six passes for 77 yards. The sophomore receiver continues to have a stellar season with 39 receptions for 758 yards and 7 TD, and has topped 80 receiving yards in all six games this season, including 139 at Notre Dame last week. When the Trojans hand the ball off, they have three capable ball carriers in RBs Ronald Jones II (380 rush yds, 8.6 YPC, 3 TD), Tre Madden (356 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 4 TD) and Justin Davis (227 rush yds, 6.5 YPC, 2 TD). Defensively, the Trojans have allowed only 21.3 PPG despite being on the field for an average of 33:51 and surrendering 403 total YPG. Both the run-stop unit (167 YPG on 4.2 YPC) and passing defense (235 YPG, 6.8 YPC) have been respectable in 2015, but Southern Cal has forced zero or one turnover in four of six games this year.


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