The Volunteers are just 3-3 SU (3-2-1 ATS) this season, but all three of their defeats have come by a touchdown or less, losing by seven points to Oklahoma, one point at Florida and by four points versus Arkansas. They are also riding high after their best win of the season, a 38-31 victory versus 2-point favorite Georgia. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide have crushed four straight opponents by an average of 23.3 PPG, including a 41-23 victory at previously unbeaten Texas A&M last week. They are now 6-1 SU (3-4 ATS), but are also a winless 0-4 ATS in Tuscaloosa. These two SEC schools have met every season since 1944 and Alabama has ripped off eight straight wins in this series by an average margin of 23.5 PPG, with seven of those victories coming by at least two touchdowns. But Tennessee did get the ATS win in last season's 34-20 result at home, and could do it again considering home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with an excellent rushing defense (2.75 or less YPC allowed) are 24-53 ATS since 1992 after allowing 40 or less rushing yards. The Vols are also 16-3 ATS on the road in this same timeframe after two straight games of forcing one turnover or less. But the Tide are 36-21 ATS after a win streak of 3+ games under Nick Saban, who is 65-40 ATS after a win by 17+ points in his collegiate coaching career. While both teams are encouraged about running backs being upgraded to probable (Jalen Hurd flu, Kenyan Drake leg injury) Tennessee has a lot more injury concerns remaining, as the team lost DT Shy Tuttle (fibula) for the season last week and OL Jason Robertson (undisclosed), DE Kyle Phillips (shoulder), LB Quart'e Sapp (foot) and DB Darrell Miller (undisclosed) are all questionable for Saturday. For Alabama, backup QB Blake Barnett (undisclosed) is doubtful and OL Ryan Kelly (concussion) is questionable for this matchup.
Can Alabama beat Tennessee handily for a ninth straight season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are coming off a huge week in Best Bets where they were a collective 63% ATS (19-11). StatFox Gary was 5-1 ATS to improve to 54% ATS (21-18-1) for the season, and StatFox Brian was also 5-1 ATS on Best Bets for the week.
Tennessee's offense has put up an impressive 37.2 PPG on 435 total YPG, and those numbers have jumped to 43.0 PPG and 512 total YPG in two road games. Balance has been a key, as the Vols have rushed for 222 YPG on 4.6 YPC and passed for 213 YPG on 7.0 YPA. Junior dual-threat QB Joshua Dobbs has provided big numbers in both these areas with 368 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and 5 TD with 1,101 passing yards (6.5 YPA), 8 TD and only 2 INT. He also has a team-long, 58-yard touchdown reception this year. Dobbs is coming off a monster performance against Georgia where he passed for a season-high 312 yards and 3 TD and ran for 118 yards (6.6 YPC) and two touchdowns. Dobbs also kept his team in the game versus Alabama last year with 192 yards and 2 TD through the air and another 75 yards (3.9 YPC) on the ground. Dobbs does a nice job of pass distribution, as seven different players have 100+ receiving yards this year with the only player above 200 being sophomore TE Ethan Wolf (213 rec yds, 2 TD). But for the Vols to keep the score close, they will have to sustain drives with workhorse RB Jalen Hurd, who has 126 carries for 572 yards (4.5 YPC) and 7 TD this year. But it's not easy to run through the Tide front seven, and Hurd was held to 59 yards on 16 carries (3.7 YPC) against them last year. The Tennessee defense has not been great in any facet this season, allowing 25.7 PPG on 419 total YPG, broken down between 170 rushing YPG (4.6 YPC) and 248 passing YPG (7.0 YPA). The Vols also need to create more mistakes with only two forced turnovers in the past three games combined.
Alabama committed five turnovers in its only loss of the season to Ole Miss, but has just eight giveaways in its other six games combined. This ball protection has helped the team control the football for an average of 33:02 per game and led to 35.6 PPG and 430 total YPG this year. The Crimson Tide have rushed for a solid 199 YPG on 4.8 YPC, and have thrown for 231 YPG on 6.9 YPA. Senior QB Jake Coker has increased his completion percentage in each of his team's four straight wins, going from 47% in the loss to Ole Miss to 55%, 69%, 73% and 76% last week when he completed 19-of-25 passes at Texas A&M for 138 yards. But the best player on the field in College Station last Saturday was junior RB Derrick Henry who rushed for 236 yards on 32 carries (7.4 YPC) and 2 TD. Henry also had a solid game in Knoxville last year with 78 yards on 16 attempts (4.9 YPC) and a touchdown. The Crimson Tide defense has been outstanding all season with 16.7 PPG allowed on 272 total YPG (4.1 yards per play). The run defense has been stellar with 79 YPG allowed on a mere 2.4 YPC. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 201 YPG, but have done so on 5.3 YPA and a 51% completion rate. Alabama has also forced 16 turnovers this season including four takeaways in three of the past six contests. But Tennessee isn’t turnover-prone at all, totaling five giveaways in six games this season.
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