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#24 Ole Miss hosts #15 Texas A&M Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 10/23/2015  at  3:03:00 PM
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TEXAS A&M AGGIES (5-1)
at OLE MISS REBELS (5-2)

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - Oxford, MS
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -5, Total: 64.5

A key SEC matchup will take place Saturday night in Oxford, MS when No. 15 Texas A&M visits No. 24 Ole Miss in the only game of the week pitting top-25 schools against each other.

The Aggies (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) are looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season last week when QB Kyle Allen tossed three pick-sixes in a 41-23 loss to Alabama. The Rebels (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) are also trying to get back on the winning track after allowing 491 yards in a 37-24 loss at Memphis. These schools are meeting for the fourth straight year since Texas A&M joined the Southeastern Conference, and the road team has prevailed in the previous three contests. Last year it was Ole Miss jumping out to a 21-0 halftime lead in College Station and holding on for a 35-20 victory. Most betting trends expect the Rebels to win again this season, as they are 8-0 ATS in October home games under head coach Hugh Freeze and their Saturday opponent is 3-16 ATS on the road where the total is 63+ points since 1992. Bettors hoping the road team streak continues in this series have to expect the Aggies to score at least 28 points, because when that happens, they are 101-50 ATS since 1992, and their opponent is 26-70 ATS when allowing 28+ points in this same timeframe. Injuries are a much bigger concern for Ole Miss in this matchup than Texas A&M, which lost LB Otaro Alaka (shoulder) for the season last week and has only RB James White (ankle) on the questionable list. The Rebels have seven questionable players in star DL Robert Nkemdiche (concussion), RB Jaylen Walton (ankle), WR Damore'ea Stringfellow (undisclosed), CB Kalio Moore (undisclosed), DE C.J. Johnson (knee), LB Tayler Polk (undisclosed) and P Will Gleeson (undisclosed), and C Robert Conyers suffered a season-ending knee injury last week.

Can Alabama hand Texas A&M its first loss of the season on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Texas A&M has a potent offense that is averaging 36.5 PPG on 453 total YPG (6.2 yards per play) this season. But even though a respectable 162 YPG (4.3 YPC) have come on the ground, the team has averaged only 97 rushing YPG (3.2 YPC) in three SEC contests including a dreadful 32 yards on 25 carries last week versus Alabama. Senior RB Tra Carson has been painfully inconsistent all season with rushing yard totals of 96, 59, 137, 28, 110, and 46 last week. He was also atrocious versus the Rebels last season with 11 carries for 29 yards (2.6 YPC). If Carson cannot find room to run, more pressure will be put on the arm of sophomore QB Kyle Allen who had all three of his interceptions returned for touchdowns last week. Despite that performance, Allen still has 1,537 passing yards (8.6 YPA) on 61% completions with 14 TD and 5 INT for the season. He will continue to lean heavily on WRs Christian Kirk (609 rec yds, 4 TD) and Josh Reynolds (439 rec yds, 3 TD), who had a big game versus Ole Miss last year with six catches for 74 yards and a touchdown. On defense, the Aggies have been decent in limiting their 2015 opponents to 24.3 PPG on 378 total YPG, especially considering the unit has been on the field for an average of 32:44. This has led to 195 rushing YPG allowed on 4.8 YPC, and 183 passing YPG allowed on 6.1 YPA and 62% completions. Texas A&M has forced at least one turnover in all six contests, including five takeaways over three SEC games. Considering the Rebels have 11 giveaways in their past four games, turnovers could make the difference on Saturday.

Ole Miss began the season with 192 points (64.0 PPG) and 567 total YPG in the first three games, but have dropped to 113 points (28.3 PPG) on 486 total YPG in the past four contests. The Rebels gained 480 yards last week at Memphis, but scored only 24 points. Junior QB Chad Kelly threw for 372 of those yards and 2 TD, but he also tossed two picks. For the season, Kelly has 2,234 passing yards (319 YPC, 9.5 YPA), 16 TD and 7 INT, but six of those interceptions have come in the past four games. The team doesn't rely on just one pair of hands, as three receivers have surpassed 400 yards this season in junior WR Laquon Treadwell (654 rec yds, 13.3 avg, 4 TD), senior WR Cody Core (426 rec yds, 18.5 avg, 3 TD) and junior WR Quincy Adeboyejo (403 rec yds, 20.2 avg, 6 TD). The trio combined for eight catches, 135 yards and 1 TD in last year's win in College Station. This season, Treadwell has at least 135 receiving yards in three of the past four games, including a season-high 144 last week. The Rebels defense has not lived up to big expectations (22.1 PPG allowed, 359 total YPG allowed), especially in SEC play where they have surrendered 30.3 PPG and 393 total YPG over three games. Ole Miss has been much more effective in stopping the run (130 YPG, 3.2 YPC) than it has in defending the pass (229 YPG, 5.9 YPA, 63% completions) this season. The Rebels also need to create more miscues. Since forcing five Alabama turnovers on Sept. 19, the Rebels have only three takeaways in the past four games combined.


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