StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Ohio hosts lowly Kent State on Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/10/2015  at  7:15:00 AM
  Print This Article    

KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES (3-6)
at OHIO BOBCATS (5-4)

Peden Stadium - Athens, OH
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio -7

Conference foes desperately needing wins will clash on Tuesday when Kent State visits Ohio.

The Golden Flashes (3-6 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) are really struggling on offense. They have not topped 20 points in five straight games and are getting outscored 66 to 17 during a current two-game losing skid, including an 18-17 home loss to underdog Buffalo last week. The Bobcats (5-4 SU and ATS) have dropped three in a row all by at least 24 points, including a 62-24 defeat at Bowling Green last Wednesday. The road team has had great success in this MAC series recently with a 6-3 SU mark (7-2 ATS) in the past nine meetings with Kent State posting a perfect 7-0 ATS record (5-2 SU) in Athens since 2001. But Ohio won last year's meeting on the road by a 17-14 score, which could have been much greater if the team didn't lose four fumbles. There are good reasons to wager on both sides on Tuesday, as the Flashes fall in the category of road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points going 176-110 ATS (62%) in conference games after an upset loss as a favorite, but the Bobcats are 10-2 ATS at home versus good rushing defenses (120 or fewer YPG) since 1992. The injury list is much more slanted towards Ohio, as Kent State has only RBs Nick Holley (hip, questionable) and Myles Washington (out), while the Bobcats list 15 players as questionable for Thursday, including QB Derrius Vick (ankle), RB Papi White (knee), TE Connor Brown (illness), DE Trent Smart (foot) and LBs Jovon Johnson (ankle) and Blair Brown (undisclosed). The good news is that star LB Quentin Poling (knee) could be back on the field for this matchup.

Which MAC school will end its losing skid on Tuesday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Kent State has scored a mere 15.9 PPG on 297 total YPG (4.2 yards per play) this season, and these numbers are even more pathetic on the road -- 8.0 PPG, 243 total YPG (3.5 yards per play). The ground game isn't terrible with 150 YPG on 3.7 YPC, but the air attack is simply dreadful with 147 YPG on 52% completions and 5.0 YPA. Neither of the team's two quarterbacks have enjoyed success this season with junior QB Colin Reardon completing 46% of his throws for 791 yards (5.1 YPA), 6 TD and 4 INT, while freshman QB George Bollas has a strong 61% completion rate, but also has a weak 532 yards (4.9 YPA), 2 TD and 4 INT. Reardon did play very well versus Ohio last season though, completing 30-of-41 passes for 264 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. While the team has six players with double-digit catches this season, no KSU receiver has even 300 yards this season. The Flashes would like to run the football more, but RB Trayion Durham is having a difficult time finding holes with only 346 yards on 3.4 YPC and 2 TD. Durham entered the season with 2,712 rushing yards on 4.2 YPC and 24 TD in his collegiate career, but he did not play in the home loss to the Bobcats last year and watched his KSU teammates produce a horrendous 31 yards on 22 carries that day. The Golden Flashes defense has kept this team in games, holding opponents to 26.6 PPG and 330 total YPG. The run-defense has been superb in limiting teams to 118 YPG on 3.1 YPC, while the passing game has given up 213 total YPG, but only 6.3 YPA and a 53% completion rate. The one knock on the unit is its lack of big plays over the past four weeks where Kent State has just three takeaways. This is a big drop from the 13 takeaways it had in the previous four contests, which is good news for a Bobcats offense that has turned the ball over six times in the past two weeks.

Ohio has the better offense in this matchup with 25.3 PPG on 404 total YPG, but those numbers fall to 20.6 PPG and 395 total YPG in conference action. While the ground game has underachieved this season, it sure looked great last week when it ran for 299 yards on 56 carries (5.3 YPC) at Bowling Green. Nobody gained 60 yards on the ground, but four different ball carriers had at least 50 rushing yards (RBs Maleek Irons and Daz'mond Patterson, and QBs Derrius Vick and JD Sprague). This balance was also evident in the win at Kent State last year where Patterson's 61 yards (3.6 YPC) topped the list of five players rushing for more than 20 yards in the team's 175 yards on 44 carries (4.0 YPC). Senior QB Derrius Vick (193 pass YPG, 7.4 YPA, 9 TD, 6 INT) played pretty well last week against Bowling Green before he was injured (11-of-15, 82 yds), and QB JD Sprague was decent in relief with 162 yards on 10-of-24 throws (6.8 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. The team would really like Vick to return, as he completed 18-of-24 passes for 262 yards (10.9 YPA), 2 TD and 0 INT in the win at Kent State last year. The injury-riddled Ohio defense had allowed only 94 points (15.7 PPG) in its first six games, but has surrendered 152 points (50.7 PPG) in the past three contests. The run-stop unit has really been gashed during the losing skid for 258 rushing YPG on 7.2 YPC. The passing defense hasn't been great this season either, allowing 217 YPG on 62% completions and 6.6 YPA. But the success of this unit is largely based on creating mistakes. In their five wins this season, the Bobcats have forced 14 turnovers, but in four defeats, they have only one takeaway combined.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: