Kelly/Shorts Stadium - Mount Pleasant, MI
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Toledo -4, Total: 52.5

A huge showdown in the MAC will take place on Tuesday night when No. 24 Toledo visits Central Michigan.

Both schools are 4-1 in conference play and trail Western Michigan (5-0) for the top spot in the MAC West Division, meaning the loser of Tuesday's game has virtually no chance to win the conference. The Rockets (6-1-1 ATS) saw their undefeated season come to an end last week with a 32-27 home loss to 7-point underdog Northern Illinois, but the Chippewas (8-1 ATS) are riding a three-game win streak since falling by 2 points at Western Michigan on Oct. 10. Toledo has dominated this series all decade with five straight wins (SU and ATS) all by double-digits which included a 42-28 victory last year and a 38-17 romp at Central Michigan in 2013. The Rockets are also 28-14 ATS (67%) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992 while their Tuesday opponent is just 7-18 ATS (28%) versus good rushing teams (4.75+ YPC) in this same timeframe. But the Chippewas have even more favorable betting trends in this matchup, such as their 13-4 ATS (77%) mark after an ATS win in the past three seasons and the fact that road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off an upset loss as a favorite against an opponent off a road win are just 11-35 ATS (24%) since 1992. But while Toledo has no new injuries of significance, CMU will be short-handed on defense with DL Joe Ostman (ankle) out and DB Stefon Armstead listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury.

Which school will stay in the hunt for the MAC Championship on Tuesday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Toledo's offense has been quite powerful this season with 35.7 PPG and 466 total YPG, and those numbers jump to 40.6 PPG and 524 total YPG in conference play. The team is incredibly balanced with similar totals in both rushing yards (223 YPG on 5.3 YPC) and passing yards (243 YPG on 6.8 YPA). Senior QB Phillip Ely (6.7 YPA, 16 TD, 9 INT) has done a great job of avoiding big losses, as he has taken only two sacks in 279 dropbacks this season. But after four straight games of multiple TD throws, Ely had a horrible outing last week when he completed only 15-of-33 passes for 136 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. But the Rockets have a great receiving corps to help Ely bounce back, with three reliable pass catchers in WRs Cody Thompson (491 rec yds, 4 TD), Corey Jones (411 rec yds, 4 TD) and Alonzo Russell (396 rec yds, 4 TD). Both Russell (120 rec yds, 2 TD) and Jones (106 rec yds) surpassed the century mark in last year's win over Central Michigan, and RB Terry Swanson also played a big role in that victory with 97 yards on 11 carries (8.8 YPC) and a touchdown. The sophomore currently leads the Rockets with 723 rushing yards on an impressive 7.5 YPC and 5 TD, and Swanson has rushed for at least 97 yards in five straight games, including 133 on 8.3 YPC last week. The Toledo defense has been outstanding this year in holding opponents to 18.2 PPG and 371 total YPG on 4.9 yards per play. The run-stop unit has been very stingy in allowing only 125 YPG on 3.4 YPC, but the passing defense has given up too many big plays with 246 YPG on 6.3 YPA. The Rockets have also helped themselves out with 12 takeaways in the past six games, and they have also forced 12 turnovers during their five-game series win streak versus the Chippewas.

Central Michigan's offense has been solid with 26.3 PPG on 392 total YPG, but most of that has been through the air (296 passing YPG, 7.9 YPA). Junior QB Cooper Rush has completed 69% of his throws for 2,626 yards (7.8 YPA), 20 TD and 8 INT this season, and has never thrown more than one interception in any game. He tossed at least two touchdowns in all five October games with nine total TD (8 pass, 1 rush) during the three-game win streak. Rush also shined bright at Toledo last season when he completed 24-of-31 throws for 291 yards (9.4 YPA), 2 TD and 1 INT. Four different receivers have topped 450 yards this season, led by senior WR Jesse Kroll (566 rec yds, 4 TD), who caught both of Rush's touchdown throws in last year's loss to the Rockets. All of these pass catchers have been able to keep the chains moving and cover up a major deficiency in the team's ground game. CMU has run for only 95 YPG on 2.9 YPC this year (39 yards on 24 carries last week at Akron), but it does have eight rushing touchdowns spread out among five different players. The Chippewas remain fierce on defense with 21.7 PPG allowed on 318 total YPG. Both the rushing defense (136 YPG, 3.9 YPC) and passing defense (182 YPG, 6.4 YPA) are solid, and the unit has also helped itself out with 11 takeaways over the past five weeks.