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Virginia Tech visits Georgia Tech Thursday night
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/12/2015  at  7:52:00 AM
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VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (4-5)
at GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (3-6)

Bobby Dodd Stadium - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia Tech -3, Total: 53.5

ACC foes trying to keep bowl hopes alive will clash on Thursday night when Virginia Tech visits Georgia Tech.

The Hokies (4-5 ATS) need to win two of their final three games to reach a bowl and they are coming off arguably their best game of the season when they won 26-10 at Boston College on Halloween before last week's bye. The Yellow Jackets (3-6 ATS) have just one win in the past seven games, which was a miracle FG block in the closing seconds to beat Florida State. Their loss at 4.5-point underdog Virginia in the last game means they have to win out to reach a bowl. These schools have met every year since Virginia Tech joined the ACC in 2004, and the Hokies have enjoyed a commanding 8-3 SU advantage (5-6 ATS) including 4-1 (SU and ATS) when visiting Georgia Tech. But the Yellow Jackets had a comeback win last year in Blacksburg as they forced three turnovers in a 27-24 victory. There are good reasons for bettor optimism on both sides of the ball, as Virginia Tech is 29-14 ATS on the road after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in its previous game, and home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after posting a 1-2 ATS mark are just 64-113 ATS (36%) after the first month of the season. However, Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson is 14-4 ATS after a close loss (6 points or less) and its Thursday opponent is 0-6 ATS on the road after a game that finished Under the total since 2013. Both teams should be well rested after a bye week, but the injury list is heavily slanted towards the Yellow Jackets. They won't have DB A.J. Gray (undisclosed) or DL Jabari Hunt-Days (suspension), and DBs Step Durham and Demond Smith are both questionable with undisclosed injuries. With Hokies DT Corey Marshall (hamstring) upgraded to probable, their roster has no new injuries to contend with.

Which team will pick up the crucial victory on Thursday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts were a combined 54% ATS in Best Bets last week (14-12-1) led by StatFox Dave's impressive 80% clip (4-1).

Virginia Tech is scoring a solid 30.6 PPG on 373 total YPG this season, but those numbers dip to 26.0 PPG and 309 YPG against conference foes. The ground game is gaining 162 YPG on just 3.8 YPC, but the air attack has been much more consistent with 212 YPG on 7.2 YPA. The return of QB Michael Brewer (671 pass yds, 7.8 YPA, 7 TD, 2 INT), who broke his collarbone in the season opener, has given the entire offense more confidence. The senior completed 71% of his throws (15-of-21) for 180 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in the last game at Boston College, but needs to be more careful with the football on Thursday than he was last year against the Yellow Jackets when he threw for 297 yards (7.6 YPA), 0 TD and 3 INT. His big receiver that night was WR Isaiah Ford, who gained 114 yards on eight receptions, and Ford has been the top target this year too with 615 receiving yards and 7 TD. But the most important player in this game could be freshman RB Travon McMillian (665 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 3 TD) who has rushed for at least 96 yards in four straight contests, totaling 442 yards on 89 carries (5.0 YPC). On defense, the Hokies have limited teams to 24.3 PPG and 345 total YPG this season thanks to an exceptional passing defense allowing only 179 passing YPG on 49% completions. The run-stop unit is average, giving up 166 YPG on 4.4 YPC this year, but has held two of the past three opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground. Virginia Tech was able to force four turnovers last game, which was more than it had in the four previous games combined (2 TO). With the Yellow Jackets committing two turnovers in five of the past six contests, expect the Hokies to go hard after the football.

Georgia Tech's offense is scoring 33.6 PPG on 403 total YPG (6.2 yards per play), and those numbers jump to 43.0 PPG and 470 total YPG (7.4 yards per play) at home. This team loves to run the football out of the triple-option, choosing to rush on 74% of its plays where it is producing 268 YPG on 5.5 YPC. Redshirt freshman A-Back Clinton Lynch is coming off a huge performance last game when he scored three touchdowns all from 22+ yards out (2 TD catches, 1 TD run). The team's leading rusher is another freshman, RB Marcus Marshall, who has gained a whopping 8.2 yards per carry, but has just one game with more than 12 carries. Marshall was held to 23 yards on eight attempts (2.9) last game at Virginia. Junior QB Justin Thomas is having a rough year throwing the football with a dismal 44% completion rate, but still has 7.8 YPA, 12 TD and 6 INT. But after rushing for 1,086 yards on 5.7 YPC last season, Thomas has only 421 rushing yards on 3.6 YPC this year. However, Thomas was the biggest reason his team won in Blacksburg last year as he compiled 290 total yards (165 rushing, 125 passing) and 2 TD (1 rush, 1 pass). The Georgia Tech defense is allowing 26.1 PPG on 365 total YPG this year, but those numbers balloon to 31.5 PPG on 385 total YPG in conference play. The run-stop unit has not been effective, allowing 172 YPG on 4.8 YPC, but the passing defense has limited teams to 193 YPG on 6.7 YPA. It would help if the team forced more turnovers, as the unit has only two takeaways in the past three games combined.


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