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Packers host lowly Lions on Sunday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 11/14/2015  at  12:40:00 PM
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DETROIT LIONS (1-7)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -11.5, Total: 47.5

A struggling Lions team looking for any sign of encouragement and a Packers team looking to turn around their own recent struggles will square off in Lambeau Field on Sunday, marking the 172nd matchup all-time between the NFC North rivals.

It has been a long time since Detroit left Wisconsin with a victory, as Green Bay has a jaw-dropping 24 straight home wins in this series starting from 1992. The Lions (1-7 SU and ATS) have struggled all season long, losing four games by at least 10 points, and two by more than 25 points. Preceding last week's bye, QB Matthew Stafford threw for a season-low 195 yards while the defense allowed a season-high 206 rushing yards in a 45-10 home blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 8. Green Bay (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS), which started 5-0 SU and ATS, has now lost two in a row SU and three straight ATS following a 37-29 loss to the undefeated Panthers on Sunday. QB Aaron Rodgers bounced back from a poor performance against the Broncos two weeks ago with 331 passing yards and four touchdowns, but threw an interception on 4th-and-goal with less than four minutes to play, while the Packers defense was unable to stop Cam Newton, who accounted for four touchdowns (one rushing) and 354 total yards. Over the past two seasons, the home team has dominated all four games between these two teams, with the Lions winning both games at Ford Field by an average of 20 points, and Green Bay winning both games at Lambeau Field by an average of 12.5 PPG. In terms of betting trends, Detroit is 19-6 ATS on the road following a loss by 14+ points since 1992, but more trends favor the Packers, who are 17-4 ATS after a two-game road trip under head coach Mike McCarthy, and the Lions are 0-12 ATS versus teams who commit 1 or less turnovers per game in the second half of the season since 1992. Both teams are dealing with injuries to some key starters, especially in the secondary. For Detroit, WR Calvin Johnson (ankle) and CB Rashean Mathis (unspecified illness) are both probable and CB Darius Slay (concussion) is questionable. For Green Bay, starting RB Eddie Lacy (groin) and CBs Casey Hayward (concussion), Sam Shields (shoulder) & Quinten Rollins (neck) are all questionable.

Can the Lions keep the score close or will they lose their 25th straight trip to Lambeau Field in lopsided fashion? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the four experts have a strong 55% ATS collective record (71-59-3) in NFL Best Bets. StatFox Gary is leading the way at 60% ATS (18-12-1) this season, while StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (19-15-1). In terms of NFL Totals, Gary (55%, 12-10) remains profitable this season.

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has had little to celebrate in his career against the Packers, going 2-7 (SU and ATS), including 0-4 (SU and ATS) at Lambeau Field. Despite the winless mark, Stafford has thrown for 316 YPG, 10 TD and 3 INT in his four trips to Green Bay. The Lions enter this divisional showdown averaging 268 passing YPG (8th in NFL), but have managed only 69.6 rushing YPG (last in NFL), breaking the 85-yard mark in a game just once this season. Road games have been even worse for this offense that has averaged 53.3 rushing YPG in such contests, forcing their defense to stay on the field an average of 33:54 per game. One big key for Detroit in this game will be keeping the turnover battle close; as the club enters the game with a minus-9 TO differential (tied for last in league), and the Packers enter with a +6 TO differential, which is tied for fourth-best in the league.

With Eddie Lacy’s playing status yet to be determined, the Packers could look to James Starks to help carry the load against the Lions, allowing 133.8 YPG on the ground (30th in NFL). This might not be a bad thing, as Lacy gained just 10 yards on five carries in last week's loss, while Starks racked up 122 total yards (39 rushing, 83 receiving). However, the depleted Detroit secondary could help Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game, which is currently averaging just 225 YPG (T-24th in NFL). Aaron Rodgers is 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) in his career against the Lions, and he has thrown for 246 YPG, 22 TD and 5 INT in these dozen games. The Packers’ three straight ATS losses have each come in games where they allowed more than 255 passing yards, an amount the Lions have surpassed four times this season. For the year, Green Bay is giving up 20.9 PPG on 382 total YPG, but in the past three games, those numbers have risen to 28.7 PPG on 492 total YPG.


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