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#3 Ohio State hosts #9 Michigan State Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/21/2015  at  8:30:00 AM
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MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (9-1)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (10-0)

Ohio Stadium - Columbus, OH
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -13.5, Total: 52.5

Reigning national champion No. 3 Ohio State hopes to stay undefeated Saturday in a showdown against visiting Big Ten rival No. 9 Michigan State.

The Spartans (9-1 SU and 3-7 ATS) bounced back from their sole loss of the season (Nov. 7 at Nebraska) to dispatch Maryland 24-7 last weekend, but lost star QB Connor Cook to injury in the second half. The Buckeyes (10-0 SU, 4-6 ATS), meanwhile, saw the return of their star QB J.T. Barrett from a suspension last weekend as they easily knocked off Illinois 28-3 to improve to a perfect 30-0 against Big Ten opponents in the regular season under head coach Urban Meyer. The team has gotten the better of the Spartans in recent history with advantages of 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS since 1992, and in their meeting last year, 14th-ranked Ohio State upset 8th-ranked Michigan State in a 49-37 shootout. Neither team has been a profitable bet against the spread this season, but both have strong trends running in their favor to cover the spread this week. The Spartans are 13-2 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the past three seasons, and 10-1 ATS after having won five or six out of their previous seven games over the same time period. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are 18-5 ATS at home after outrushing an opponent by 200+ yards in the prior game since 1992, and 6-0 ATS in the past two seasons versus good teams (10+ PPG margin). Michigan State will be closely watching QB Connor Cook, who was sidelined with a shoulder injury in last week’s victory over Maryland and is listed as probable for Saturday. Additionally, DL Joel Heath (leg) is questionable for the Spartans. Ohio State has two defensive additions to its injury report this week, as DB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and LB Chris Worley (undisclosed) are both questionable to play.

Can Michigan State keep the score close against an unbeaten Ohio State squad? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

Under the leadership of Senior QB Connor Cook, Michigan State’s offense has put 32.9 PPG (42nd in nation) and averaged a respectable 406 total YPG (61st in FBS). Cook averages 31 passing attempts per game for 17.4 completions and 247.2 passing YPG, while throwing for 21 TD and just 4 INT. In the event Cook’s shoulder injury forces him to the sidelines again on Saturday, he’ll be spelled by backup QB Tyler O’Connor, who has thrown just 11 times for six completions, 44 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The team would also want Cook to play in the game considering how well he played versus OSU last year when he threw for 358 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT. WR Aaron Burbridge has been Cook’s No. 1 option through the air this season, catching 64 passes for 1,011 yards and six touchdowns. RB Gerald Holmes has emerged as the late-season preferred option on the ground, running an average of 20 times for 100 YPG and a touchdown in each of his past two games. The Spartans’ defense has been relatively solid on the season, allowing opponents 22.3 PPG (37th in nation) and 364 total YPG (46th in FBS). The team is especially effective against the run on the road, giving up just 100 rushing YPG on a meager 3.2 YPC.

Ohio State has managed to stay undefeated despite a quarterback competition that has only recently been settled, all while scoring an average of 36.4 PPG (28th in nation) and generating 453 YPG (33rd in FBS). Sophomore QB J.T. Barrett has established himself as the starter over junior QB Cardale Jones, leading the team to victory over Illinois after serving a one-game suspension for operating a motor vehicle under the influence. Barrett has proven to be the more athletic option, complementing his eight passing touchdowns with an equal number of running scores. Last season in East Lansing, he lit up the Spartans for 386 total yards and five touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing). Amid the instability of the QB position, junior RB Ezekiel Elliott has been the heart of the team’s offense and the third-best rusher in the nation. Elliott averages 22 rushes per game for 142.5 YPG and has contributed 16 TD. Last season against the Spartans, he ran for 154 yards on 23 carries (6.7 YPC) and a pair of touchdowns. The Buckeyes’ defense has been elite this season, holding opponents to a meager 13.8 PPG (2nd in nation) and 298 YPG (9th in FBS). The team’s performance has peaked over the past several weeks, allowing just 8.0 PPG in their past three games.


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