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#22 Ole Miss hosts #15 LSU on Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/20/2015  at  4:06:00 PM
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LSU TIGERS (7-2)
at OLE MISS REBELS (7-3)

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - Oxford, MS
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -6.5, Total: 56

No. 15 LSU and No. 22 Ole Miss will renew their SEC West rivalry on Saturday afternoon in Oxford, MS.

The Tigers (4-5 ATS) have lost two straight games to fall out of conference title contention and are 0-3 ATS on the road this season. The Rebels (5-4 ATS) are coming off a bye week following their heart-breaking 53-52 overtime home loss to Arkansas, but can still win their division with two victories and an Alabama loss to Auburn next week. These teams have played three straight close games where the home team has prevailed each time by six points or less. Ole Miss won the last meeting in Oxford two years ago by a 27-24 score as a 9.5-point home underdog, and LSU was a 4.5-point home 'dog to the No. 3 Rebels last year when it pulled out a 10-7 win. The betting trends are pretty even for both sides in this matchup, as the Tigers are 9-0 ATS on the road after being outrushed by 125+ yards in its previous game since 1992, but also 0-7 ATS on the road following a home game since 2013. Ole Miss is 18-9 ATS at home under head coach Hugh Freeze, but favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning record coming off an extremely close conference loss (3 points or less) are just 20-50 ATS when facing another winning team since 1992. Although the Rebels are more well-rested coming off a bye week, they have a longer injury list with LB Denzel Nkemdiche (undisclosed) doubtful and four others defensive players questionable in DE Fadol Brown (foot), DT Herbert Moore (knee), LB Tayler Polk (undisclosed) and CB Kalio Moore (undisclosed). For the Tigers, only TE DeSean Smith (undisclosed) is doubtful while OL Jerald Hawkins (ankle) has been upgraded to probable.

Which SEC team will come out on top in this rivalry game? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season.

LSU has posted strong offensive numbers of 33.6 PPG on 420 total YPG (6.7 yards per play) this season. The offense is much more reliant on the ground game with 42 rushing attempts per contest (254 YPG, 6.0 YPC) and only 20 passing attempts per game (166 YPG, 8.1 YPA). Superstar RB Leonard Fournette (FBS-high 1,643 rush yds, 17 TD) was near the top of everybody's Heisman list after rushing for at least 150 yards in each of the first seven games, but he has been limited to a meager 61 rushing YPG on 3.2 YPC over the past two defeats. Fournette did run well against Ole Miss last year though with 113 yards on 23 carries (4.9 YPC). If he can't gain yards against a talented Rebels front seven, sophomore QB Brandon Harris may have to throw 35 times like he did last week when he completed 21 passes for 271 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Tigers have a very talented defense that allows only 24.3 PPG and 343 total YPG (5.2 yards per play). But because the run-stop unit has surrendered 549 rushing yards and 6 TD over the past two games, the season numbers have jumped to 134 YPG allowed on 4.1 YPC. The passing defense has been decent with 209 YPG allowed on 6.3 YPA, but the entire unit must be ready for a challenge after the Rebels racked up 52 points and 590 total yards in its last game.

Ole Miss scores a hefty 40.7 PPG on 527 total YPG this season, and those numbers are even beefier at home (50.5 PPG, 578 total YPG). This offense doesn't like to huddle up, and the fast pace has led to a subpar 26:15 average time of possession. The Rebels are known more for their passing game, but have an evenly balanced offensive attack with 178 rushing YPG (5.0 YPC) and 349 passing YPG (8.9 YPA). Over the past three weeks, they have averaged more than 203 rushing YPG. The passing game continues to thrive with QB Chad Kelly (3,224 pass yds, 8.9 YPA, 23 TD, 12 INT) frequently targeting top WR Laquon Treadwell (68 rec, 1,002 yds, 7 TD). The junior pass catcher has gone over 100 receiving yards in five straight weeks, scoring at least one touchdown in every one of those games. Ole Miss has a wealth of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and that has translated to opponents scoring only 23.0 PPG on 374 total YPG, including a mere 16.5 PPG in Oxford. Opposing rushers are gaining 126 YPG on a paltry 3.2 YPC while opposing quarterbacks are having more success with a 60% completion rate, 248 passing YPG and 6.3 YPA. Turnovers have not come very easily in the past seven games with just seven total takeaways in this span.


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