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Banged up Eagles face Lions on Thursday
By: Phil Burton - StatFox
Published: 11/24/2015  at  2:07:00 PM
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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-6)
at DETROIT LIONS (3-7)

Kickoff: Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET
Line: Even, Total: 45.5

The Eagles swoop into the Motor City Thursday hoping to feast on the Lions in a Thanksgiving matchup.

Philadelphia (4-6 SU and ATS) is still in the hunt for a playoff spot in the chaotic NFC East, where it remains one game out of first place despite having lost three out of its past four games. Meanwhile, Detroit (3-7 SU and ATS) has enjoyed relative success since its Week 9 bye, upsetting the Packers and knocking off the Raiders to earn its only pair of regulation wins on the season. The Eagles have had the upper hand over the Lions in recent history, beating them 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS since 1992. Their last meeting occurred in 2013, in a game that saw Philly rally from a 14-6, fourth-quarter deficit to win 34-20. Both teams enjoy favorable trends to cover the spread in this week's game. The Eagles are 9-1 ATS coming off a blowout loss (21+ points) since 1992, while road teams are 71-32 in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the past 10 seasons after being beaten by the spread by 21+ points total in their past three games. Meanwhile, underdogs like Detroit are 169-107 ATS since 1983 in games involving two average offensive teams (18-23 PPG) after allowing 14 points or fewer in their previous game, and the Lions' opponent is 3-13 ATS in road games versus poor teams (outscored by 6+ PPG on the season) in the second half of the season since 1992. Philadelphia is likely to once again start QB Mark Sanchez in place of top QB Sam Bradford (concussion), who is doubtful to play Thursday. The team may be missing a few other offensive pieces as well, as RB Ryan Mathews (concussion) and TE Zach Ertz (concussion) are both listed as questionable. The Lions are relatively healthy at this point in the season, though DT Gabe Wright (ankle) is questionable to play on Thursday.

Can the Lions run their win streak to three games on Thanksgiving? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the four experts have a profitable 54% ATS collective record (84-71-7) in NFL Best Bets. StatFox Gary is leading the way at 60% ATS (21-14-2) this season, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (22-19-3). In terms of NFL Totals, Gary continues his strong season with a perfect 3-0 mark in Week 11 to improve to 59% (16-11) for the year.

Philadelphia has been pedestrian on both sides of the ball this season, a stat reflected in its middle-of-the-road 4-6 record. The team's offense has scored an average of 22.9 PPG (15th in NFL), while totaling 347.4 YPG (8th in league) and coughing up 20 turnovers (5th-worst in league). QB Mark Sanchez began hot in his first start of the season last week, connecting with WR Josh Huff for a 39-yard TD in the first four minutes. He quickly came back down to earth though, ending the day 26-of-41 for 261 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. Sanchez is 1-0 in his career against Detroit, throwing for 323 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT with the Jets. RB DeMarco Murray, the team's leading rusher, ran 13 times for 64 yards, adding four catches for 27 yards and also lost a fumble. The Eagles will be hoping for the return of RB Ryan Mathews, who has gained 5.7 yards per carry compared to Murray's 3.7, and has scored in four of his past five games. Philadelphia's defense has allowed as many points as its offense scores, 22.9 PPG (16th in the NFL), though the squad has struggled recently, surrendering 30.7 PPG in the past three games. Tampa Bay was able to dominate the defense last week, scoring 45 points and allowing QB Jameis Winston to throw five touchdowns and RB Doug Martin to gain 235 yards on the ground. To the Eagles' credit, they have excelled at creating turnovers with 21 (3rd in league), and have limited opposing runners to score just three touchdowns all season (2nd in NFL).

Detroit has similarly been balanced on both sides of the ball this season -- unfortunately, the team is toward the bottom of the league in both instances. The Lions' offense is the fourth-lowest scoring bunch in the league, averaging 18.5 PPG and 336.5 YPG (25th in NFL), while turning the ball over the second-most of any team, a cringe-worthy 21 times. The team has had to lean heavily on QB Matthew Stafford, who has thrown the football 412 times (4th-most in league), scoring 16 TD (15th in league) but also giving up 13 interceptions (29th in NFL) along the way. Stafford is 1-1 in his career against the Eagles, averaging an underwhelming 45.7% completion rate, 229.5 YPG, and managing just one touchdown in two games. WR Calvin Johnson has looked more human than his nickname "Megatron" this season, leading the team in receptions and yards, but scoring just three times and averaging the lowest yards per reception of his career at 14.0 yards per catch. Meanwhile, Detroit's running corps is the worst in the league. RBs Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell and Theo Riddick are averaging the fewest combined rushing attempts (20.7) and yards per game (71.1), scoring just three times (28th in NFL) and averaging a paltry 3.4 yards per attempt (30th in NFL). The Lions' defense hasn't fared much better, giving opponents 27.4 PPG (4th-worst in league) and proving particularly susceptible to the run, giving up a league-worst 15 touchdowns on the ground.


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