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Packers host rival Bears on Thursday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 11/24/2015  at  5:08:00 PM
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CHICAGO BEARS (4-6)
at GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-3)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -9, Total: 47

The latest chapter in the NFL’s oldest rivalry will play out on Thanksgiving night when the Bears and Packers square off at Lambeau Field.

Chicago (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS) saw its two-game win streak end at the hands of the Broncos on Sunday in a 17-15 affair, though the team did cover for the sixth time in seven games after starting the season 0-3 ATS. The Packers (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) got back in the SU and ATS win columns following three-game losing skids in both categories with a 30-13 road victory over the Vikings, re-claiming first place in the NFC North by virtue of the head-to-head win. The long-time foes will square off for the 192nd time, with Chicago holding the narrowest of advantages, 93-92-6. The Packers won their encounter 31-23 back in Week 1 despite allowing a season-high 189 rushing yards (also the Bears’ offensive season high). Betting trends for the game favor the Packers, who are 35-13 SU and 31-16-1 ATS against the Bears since 1992, including 4-1 SU & ATS since the start of the 2013 season. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS following a road win since the start of last season, and 9-2 ATS following any road game in this same timeframe. Also, head coach Mike McCarthy is 40-19 ATS against NFC North opponents as head coach of the Packers, including 8-1 ATS in home games against bad teams (25% to 40% win pct.) in the second half of the season. Chicago, which is 9-0 ATS since 1992 off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, comes in dealing with injuries to key offensive players, including RB Matt Forte (knee), WR Alshon Jeffrey (groin), WR Eddie Royal (knee) and RB Ka’Deem Carey (concussion), all of whom are questionable, as is S Antrel Rolle (ankle). Green Bay comes in with a near clean sheet, with the exception of WR Ty Montgomery (ankle), who is listed as questionable.

Will the Packers coast to an easy victory on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the four experts have a profitable 54% ATS collective record (84-71-7) in NFL Best Bets. StatFox Gary is leading the way at 60% ATS (21-14-2) this season, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (22-19-3). In terms of NFL Totals, Gary continues his strong season with a perfect 3-0 mark in Week 11 to improve to 59% (16-11) for the year.

Chicago's offense hasn't been great this season with only 21.4 PPG but has gained a respectable 352 total YPG. The team is nearly 50/50 in play selection with the Bears throwing 34 times per game for 240 YPG on 7.0 YPA while running for 112 YPG on 3.9 YPC. But Chicago's ground attack stalled last week with a season-low 86 rushing yards while allowing a season-high 170 rushing yards to the Broncos. While Veteran QB Jay Cutler has had his moments this season with 257 passing YPG, 13 TD and 8 INT, he is just 1-12 SU (2-11 ATS) against the Packers in his career with 15 touchdowns and 23 picks. The Bears defense has produced mixed results so far this season, allowing only 217.2 YPG through the air (4th in NFL), but surrendering 123.7 YPG on the ground (25th in NFL). On a per-carry basis, Chicago is allowing 4.6 YPC (T-28th in NFL), which good news for Green Bay’s run game.

Packers ball carriers are currently averaging a pedestrian 110 rushing YPG (16th in NFL) on 4.2 YPC (12th in league), but racked up 124 yards last Sunday, which marked the first triple-digit rushing output since 133 yards versus San Diego on Oct. 18. Star QB Aaron Rodgers has failed to re-capture his MVP-winning form from last year, entering Thanksgiving averaging 232.3 passing YPG (22nd in the league), and on pace to set a new career low for passing YPA, which currently stands at 7.15 (20th in the league), more than one yard per attempt less than his 2014 and 2013 performances. But Green Bay is 13-3 SU and ATS against the Bears with Aaron Rodgers, who has thrown for 243 YPG, 34 TD and only 10 INT in these 16 meetings. The Packers have a bend-but-don't-break defense that gives up gobs of yardage (369 total YPG), but limits opponents to 19.8 PPG. The run-stop unit is allowing 114 YPG on 4.3 YPA while the passing defense gives up 255 YPG on 7.0 YPA.


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