Bright House Networks Stadium - Orlando, FL
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: TBD

UCF tries to avoid a winless 2015 season when it hosts bowl-bound South Florida on Thanksgiving night.

The Bulls have been a great bet all season at 8-2 ATS and are 6-1 (SU and ATS) in their past seven contests, including three straight victories. As a home underdog last Friday, they rolled up 561 total yards and pounded Cincinnati 65-27. The 0-11 Knights are just 2-9 ATS, and have lost all seven conference games by at least two touchdowns. Last Thursday they surrendered 605 total yards and were pummeled 44-7 at home to East Carolina. UCF also lost starting QB Justin Holman to an injured ankle, and he is listed as questionable for this in-state rivalry game. When these teams met last season at South Florida, the Knights pitched a 16-0 shutout by holding their opponent to five rushing yards on 22 carries, and also won in 2013 at home by a narrow 23-20 margin. The Bulls won the only previous four meetings before that, which were all played from 2005 to 2008. Most of the betting trends side with South Florida, including college football road favorites with a winning record going 66-24 ATS (73%) after beating the spread by 49+ total points in their previous seven games. But UCF benefits from the fact that good teams such as its Thursday opponent (60% to 80% win pct.) coming off a blowout upset win by 21+ points as an underdog are just 12-37 ATS (24%) versus losing teams since 1992. The only significant injury for the Bulls appears to be DL Deadrin Senat (knee, questionable), while in addition to Holman, the Knights could also be without WR Tristan Payton (undisclosed, questionable).

Can the Knights finally win a football game this season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts combined for a 61% ATS (22-14) success rate last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 73% ATS mark (8-3). StatFox Brian was 71% ATS (5-2) last week, while StatFox Dave was 63% ATS (5-3).

South Florida has been strong in all facets this season with 32.5 PPG and 426 total YPG. The offense chooses to run the football about two-thirds of the time, racking up 240 rushing YPG on 5.4 YPC. Senior RB Marlon Mack (1,171 rush yds, 6.7 YPC, 8 TD) is the team's main ball carrier with seven 100-yard efforts this season, and has totaled 509 yards and 5 TD during the team's three-game win streak. Junior RB Darius Tice (407 rush yds, 5.7 YPC, 4 TD) is also a polished runner who is coming off a season-high 94 yards on 15 carries (6.3 YPC) in the win over Cincinnati. The air attack is gaining just 186 YPG, but has done so on an impressive 8.5 YPA and a 61% completion rate. Dual-threat sophomore QB Quinton Flowers has not thrown more than 26 passes in any game this season, but still has 1,847 yards on 8.3 YPA with 18 TD and 8 INT. During the three straight victories, he has amassed 819 total yards (601 passing, 218 rushing) with nine touchdowns (8 passing, 1 rushing). Despite being on the field for an average of 32:15, the Bulls defense has limited opponents to just 22.7 PPG and 376 total YPG this year. Opposing rushers have gained 145 YPG on 3.7 YPC while opposing quarterbacks are completing only 56% of their throws for 230 YPG on 6.7 YPA. USF has also done a nice job in creating turnovers with 16 takeaways in the past seven weeks including six last Friday. That doesn't bode well for the turnover-prone Knights.

UCF has coughed up the football at least two times in nine of 11 losses this year, totaling 31 turnovers during this winless campaign. The mistakes are a huge reason why the offense has an average time of possession of only 28:26, leading to a pathetic 14.9 PPG and 274 total YPG. The ground game has been mostly to blame for the lack of chain movement (80 YPG on 2.7 YPC), but the passing game has just 194 YPG on a 51% completion rate and 5.4 YPA. Junior QB Justin Holman (1,263 pass yds, 5.6 YPA) has thrown for only 7 TD with 12 INT this year, but neither of his freshman replacements last week were any better with QB Tyler Harris completing 2-of-12 throws for 21 yards (1.8 YPA) and QB Bo Schneider misfiring on all three pass attempts. The lone bright spot on this offense has been WR Tre'Quan Smith (622 rec yds, 4 TD) who followed up a career-best 131 yards two games ago with four catches for 50 yards and the team's only touchdown last Friday. The leading rusher for the Knights is freshman RB C.J. Jones who has an underwhelming 329 yards on 3.7 YPC and 1 TD for the year. After an impressive 123 rushing yards at Cincinnati on Halloween, Jones has been held to 55 yards on 23 carries (2.4 YPC) over the past two games. The UCF defense has been manhandled both through the air (272 YPG on 9.0 YPA) and on the ground (192 YPG on 4.8 YPC) leading to 37.1 PPG on 463 total YPG allowed (6.6 yards per play) for the season. But the unit did have four takeaways two games ago and South Florida hasn't had a turnover-free game all season, totaling 15 giveaways.