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Undefeated Patriots face Broncos Sunday night
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 11/29/2015  at  7:45:00 AM
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (10-0)
at DENVER BRONCOS (8-2)

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: New England -3, Total: 44

It might not be the 17th edition of Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning, but it will be two of the AFC’s best going at it on Sunday Night Football when the Patriots travel to Denver to take on the Broncos.

The Patriots (10-0 SU, 5-2-3 ATS) continued their perfect season with a 20-13 victory at home over long-time foe Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills. New England played to a push ATS, their 3rd push of the season, all of them coming in home games as a 7-point favorite. The Broncos (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) got back to their winning ways on Sunday afternoon, following a two-game losing streak after an 8-0 start to the season, with a 17-15 road win over the Bears. Brock Osweiler was excellent in his first career start for the injured Manning, completing 74% of his passes, averaging 10.7 YPA, and throwing for two TDs with no INTs. Betting trends are a mixed bag in this one. New England is 14-9 ATS following a home win since the start of the 2012 season, but they’re also just 8-13 ATS in road games over that same time span. Both teams have had success ATS facing teams with winning records; Denver is 51-32 in home games since 1992, while the Patriots are 107-77 in all games over that same time span. Bill Belichick is 118-83 ATS against the AFC as New England head coach. Both teams are dealing with injuries to a number of key players. For New England, WR Danny Amendola (knee), DB Justin Coleman (hand), WR Keyshawn Martin (hamstring), G Tre’ Jackson (knee), and LB Jamie Collins (illness) are all listed as questionable. For the Broncos, DE Vance Walker (shoulder), LB DeMarcus Ware (back), WR Emmanuel Sanders (head), and G Evan Mathis (ankle) are all questionable. Brock Osweiler will make his 2nd consecutive start in place of the injured Manning (foot).

Will the Packers coast to an easy victory on Thursday night? For the answer, connect to NFL Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and playoffs. This season, the four experts have a profitable 54% ATS collective record (84-71-7) in NFL Best Bets. StatFox Gary is leading the way at 60% ATS (21-14-2) this season, while StatFox Brian is 54% ATS (22-19-3). In terms of NFL Totals, Gary continues his strong season with a perfect 3-0 mark in Week 11 to improve to 59% (16-11) for the year.

After finishing outside the Top 10 in total offense in 2014, the Patriots have returned to true offensive prominence so far this season, averaging 412.4 YPG (3rd in NFL), led by Tom Brady and a passing attack averaging 320.4 YPG (1st in NFL). Rob Gronkowski is a matchup nightmare all over the field and the Patriots will be hoping to get him into some open space in Sunday’s game. The team will also need to find a way to make sure Brandon LaFell can be productive moving forward. While New England’s rushing offense has managed just 92 rushing YPG (28th in NFL), their run defense has been excellent, allowing 88.8 YPG (2nd in NFL), helping to balance out a unit that ranks 21st against the pass in YPG allowed.

Denver, which has had a Top 5 offense each of the last two years, including their top-ranked, record-setting unit of 2013, has, on the contrary, been carried by their defense thus far this year, allowing just 284.3 total YPG (1st in NFL). Denver’s pass defense has been superb, allowing just 190.6 passing YPG while recording 18 INTs (both 1st in NFL). The Broncos have been one of the few teams Tom Brady has not had overwhelming success again, winning 5 of their 10 regular season meetings and two of their three postseason meetings since Brady became New England’s starting QB back in 2001. Brady has been held to a YPA of 6.77 in the matchup, his 3rd-worst mark against any team in the league as a starter.


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