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No. 4 Iowa tries to stay unbeaten Friday at Nebraska
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/27/2015  at  5:08:00 AM
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IOWA HAWKEYES (11-0)
at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (5-6)

Memorial Stadium - Lincoln, NE
Kickoff: Friday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Iowa -1.5, Total: 57.5

No. 4 Iowa tries to finish the regular season unbeaten when it visits a Nebraska team with one final shot to become bowl eligible.

The Hawkeyes (6-5 ATS) are coming off a 40-20 victory over Purdue last Saturday and know that a win on Friday plus a victory in the Big Ten Championship Game next week will put them into the national semifinals. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers (5-5-1 ATS) have won two in a row and need one last victory on Friday to pull even at 6-6 and play in a bowl game. Iowa is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this season, while Nebraska is a mediocre 3-3 (SU and ATS) at home. These schools are meeting for the fifth straight season as conference foes with the Huskers taking three of the previous four matchups (2-2 ATS) including a 37-34 overtime victory on the road last year when they overcame a 17-point deficit. But the Hawkeyes won the last meeting in Lincoln in 2013 by a convincing 38-17 margin with a +3 turnover advantage. There are plenty of reasons for bettors to side with either school on Friday, as Iowa is 33-11 ATS (75%) versus good offenses (5.9+ yards per play) under Kirk Ferentz and 8-1 ATS (89%) on the road after an ATS defeat in the past three seasons. But since 1992, Nebraska is 22-8 ATS (73%) at home versus top-level teams (75%+ win pct.) and 17-5 ATS (77%) when hosting excellent offensive squads (34+ PPG). Although the Hawkeyes are playing this game on a short week, they have no new injuries of concern, and the Huskers, who haven't played since Nov. 14, just lost RB Mikale Wilbon (knee) for the season, but everybody else should be available to play.

Can Nebraska spoil Iowa's perfect season on Friday afternoon? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts combined for a 61% ATS (22-14) success rate last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 73% ATS mark (8-3). StatFox Brian was 71% ATS (5-2) last week, while StatFox Dave was 63% ATS (5-3).

Iowa has averaged a hefty 34.2 PPG on 418 total YPG this season, and those numbers have jumped to 38.3 PPG and 453 total YPG over the past three games. The offense chooses to run the football 61% of the time, which has led to 208 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC and a dominant 32:59 average time of possession. The Hawkeyes have three capable ball carriers that all have at least seven touchdowns this season with senior RB Jordan Canzeri (824 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 10 TD), junior RB LeShun Daniels Jr. (590 rush yds, 4.8 YPC, 8 TD) and sophomore RB Akrum Wadley (449 rush yds, 6.5 YPC, 7 TD). Canzeri was the big gainer last week with 95 yards on 13 attempts (7.3 YPC) while Daniels had 195 rushing yards and 3 TD two games ago as part of four straight scoring weeks where he's totaled eight touchdowns. Iowa also has a quality passing game with junior QB C.J. Beathard, who has completed 61% of his throws for 2,257 yards (205 YPG, 7.9 YPA), 13 TD and only 3 INT. Beathard has not tossed an interception in four straight games and last week threw for 213 yards and tied a season high with 3 TD passes. The Iowa defense has been outstanding this season in limiting opponents to 18.5 PPG on 323 total YPG. Being on the field for only 27:01 per game has certainly helped, and the front seven has given up only 108 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC. Although opponents throw for 215 YPG, they complete just 54% of their passes for 6.0 YPA. These numbers improve to 50% completions and 5.3 YPA on the road. The one negative is that Iowa has forced just two turnovers during the past three weeks combined, but that number could increase significantly against a Huskers offense that has coughed up the football 10 times over the past three games.

Despite Nebraska's miscues in the past three contests, the team has still pumped out 38.3 PPG on 448 total YPG in this timeframe, which brings its season averages up to 33.6 PPG and 443 total YPG. The Huskers have an even 50/50 split in terms of rushing the football and passing the football each 36 times per game this season. Junior QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. (55% completions, 2,560 pass yds, 7.6 YPA, 21 TD, 12 INT) has nearly identical numbers compared to last season (53% completions, 2,695 pass yds, 7.8 YPA, 22 TD, 12 INT), but the big area of improvement has been reducing his sacks from 20 to 11. Although he has thrown for 508 yards and 5 TD over the past two weeks, Armstrong has also tossed five interceptions. In last year's win over Iowa, he threw two picks, but still finished with 202 yards and 4 TD, including the game-winner in overtime. The Huskers ground game is pretty strong with 171 YPG on 4.7 YPC thanks mostly to junior RB Terrell Newby (709 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 5 TD), but he has carried the football only five times during two November games because of an ankle injury. He should be closer to 100 percent after the bye week, but if Newby is still limited, the team knows it can count on senior RB Imani Cross who has back-to-back games of 90+ rushing yards. The Blackshirts defense of Nebraska has been decent this season with 27.7 PPG and 415 total YPG allowed, but in the past three games, it has allowed a beefy 35.7 PPG. The secondary is most at fault with surrendering 306 passing YPG on 7.5 YPA, but the front seven has held teams to 110 rushing YPG on 3.6 YPC. The Huskers also need to force more turnovers, as they have produced only eight takeaways in the past nine games combined.


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