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No. 9 Stanford hosts No. 6 Notre Dame Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/27/2015  at  10:38:00 AM
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NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (10-1)
at STANFORD CARDINAL (9-2)

Stanford Stadium - Stanford, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -3.5, Total: 56

No. 6 Notre Dame tries to keep its national playoff chances alive on Saturday night when it visits No. 9 Stanford.

The Fighting Irish (7-4 ATS) have ripped off six straight wins since their lone loss of the season at No. 1 Clemson, but nearly fell to Boston College last week when they turned the ball over five times in a 16-13 victory. The Cardinal (8-3 ATS) are aiming for their 10th win of the season after outrushing California 260 to 98 during a 35-22 victory last week. The past three games in this series have all been close contests with the home team prevailing by a touchdown or less each time. Notre Dame eked out a 17-14 victory last season and Stanford prevailed 27-20 as a 16.5-point favorite when it last hosted in this series in 2013. Although the Cardinal hold the 6-4 SU advantage at home in this series since 1992, the Fighting Irish are 7-3 ATS in those 10 games. There aren't a ton of great betting trends for either team on Saturday, but Notre Dame is 9-2 ATS on the road under head coach Brian Kelly after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games, and Stanford is 14-4 ATS under head coach David Shaw after scoring 31+ points in two straight games. The big injury in this matchup is Irish top RB C.J. Prosise (ankle), listed as doubtful, while DB KeiVarae Russell (leg) and WR Equanimeous St. Brown (knee) are out and WR Chris Brown (shoulder) and LB James Onwualu (knee) are both questionable. Stanford's only two injuries of note are FB Daniel Marx (leg, out) and DB Ronnie Harris, who is questionable with an undisclosed injury.

Can Notre Dame pick up the big road win on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts combined for a 61% ATS (22-14) success rate last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 73% ATS mark (8-3). StatFox Brian was 71% ATS (5-2) last week, while StatFox Dave was 63% ATS (5-3).

Notre Dame's offense has been decimated by injuries to skill players this year, but is still averaging 34.6 PPG and 466 total YPG. Balance has been a key for the Irish who have thrown for 258 passing YPG on 8.9 YPA and run for another 208 YPG on 5.5 YPC. QB DeShone Kizer has done a great job since replacing Malik Zaire, as the sophomore has completed 64% of his passes for 2,362 yards (8.7 YPA), 18 TD and 9 INT. But after throwing just two interceptions during a four-game span, Kizer tossed three picks last week, but still gained 320 yards through the air with a pair of touchdowns. Junior WR Will Fuller is the go-to receiver on this team with five games of 120+ receiving yards, but has been limited to just six catches for 109 yards in the past two contests. Last year against Stanford, Fuller had a mere three receptions for 27 yards. If the air attack stalls, Notre Dame will have to turn to No. 2 RB Josh Adams to carry the mail, with top RB C.J. Prosise (1,032 rush yds, 6.6 YPC, 11 TD) unlikely to suit up. The freshman Adams ran for more than 140 yards in back-to-back games to start the month of November, but was held to 36 yards on 14 totes (2.6 YPC) last week against Boston College. The Stanford front seven Adams will face on Saturday should be even tougher to penetrate than B.C.'s defense was. Speaking of defense, the Irish have really buckled down in limiting teams to 21.0 PPG and 357 total YPG for the season, including 17.7 PPG over the past three games. They are allowing 167 YPG on 4.8 YPC on the ground and 190 YPG on 6.5 YPA through the air. Notre Dame needs to force more turnovers though, with just four takeaways over the past four games combined, and the Cardinal have multiple giveaways just four times all year.

Stanford's offense loves to control the clock with an average time of possession of 35:15, and the team can move the chains both on the ground (228 YPG on 5.2 YPC) and through the air (211 YPG on 8.8 YPA), gaining a hefty 22.7 first downs per game. The focal point of this offense is sophomore RB Christian McCaffrey, who has nearly 2,000 total yards with 1,546 rushing yards (5.9 YPC) and 416 receiving yards (12.2 avg). The sophomore has scored 10 times this season, including 9 TD over the past seven contests. But for the Cardinal to win Saturday's game, QB Kevin Hogan (2,231 pass yds, 67% completions, 8.9 YPA, 19 TD, 7 INT), needs to play much better than he did at Notre Dame last year when he completed just 18-of-36 passes for 158 yards (4.4 YPA), 0 TD and 2 INT. Hogan has also made plays with his legs in the past four weeks with 202 rushing yards and 4 TD. Stanford does not have a pass catcher with 500 receiving yards this year, but Hogan has thrown touchdown passes to 10 different teammates in 2015. The Cardinal defense does a decent job stopping both the run (130 YPG, 4.1 YPC) and the pass (231 YPG, 6.7 YPA), but one week after giving up 231 rushing yards to Oregon, the unit surrendered 397 passing yards to California last Saturday. This unit has not forced more than two turnovers in a game all season, totaling a subpar 10 takeaways over 11 games.


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