StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

#1 Clemson, #8 UNC battle for ACC supremacy Sat.
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/1/2015  at  5:32:00 PM
  Print This Article    

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (11-1)
vs. CLEMSON TIGERS (12-0)

ACC Championship Game
Bank of America Stadium - Charlotte, NC
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Clemson -5, Total: 66.5

Top-ranked Clemson looks to punch its ticket to the national semifinals when it collides with red-hot North Carolina on Saturday night in the ACC Championship Game.

The Tar Heels are sizzling with 11 straight wins (8-3 ATS) since losing the season opener to South Carolina. But while their margin of victory is a hefty +31.7 PPG at home, even with last week's impressive 45-34 road win at rival NC State, they are outscoring opponents by only +4.8 PPG in road/neutral contests. The Tigers (5-6-1 ATS) haven't lost at all this season, but have dropped four in a row ATS with the closest of those games being a slim 37-32 victory at 20.5-point underdog South Carolina last week. Part of the reason for their struggles against the lines is 10 giveaways over the past three contests. These conference foes have played just once in the past four seasons, which was a 50-35 Clemson home win when North Carolina was penalized a ridiculous 15 times for 130 yards. The home team has prevailed five straight times in the series (4-1 ATS) but Saturday's game will be at a neutral site in Charlotte. Both schools have a handful of strong betting trends on Saturday, as the Tar Heels are 14-5 ATS in the second half of the season since 2013, and fall into the category of underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points coming off a double-digit conference win going 44-17 ATS (72%) since 1992 when facing an opponent coming off a road game where both teams scored 31+ points. But under head coach Dabo Swinney, the Tigers are 23-10 ATS after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in their previous game and 12-4 ATS on the road after scoring 37+ points in their previous contest. The only significant injury to track for either team for this conference title game is Clemson WR Ray-Ray McCloud, who is questionable with a knee injury.

Can Clemson stay unbeaten against an excellent opponent in North Carolina? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 59% ATS (42-29) success rate in the past two weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's amazing 77% ATS mark (17-5) during this run. StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (10-8) in the past two weeks.

North Carolina has been rolling on offense all season with 41.2 PPG on 496 total YPG (7.5 yards per play). Although the club scores just 30.4 PPG on the road, it has piled up 42.5 PPG and 501 total YPG in ACC play. The Heels like to play fast, as they have needed only 25:49 per game to amass 230 rushing YPG (6.0 YPC) and 266 passing YPG (9.5 YPA). Dynamic senior QB Marquise Williams plays a huge role in both of these methods of attack with 2,605 passing yards (9.1 YPA), 18 TD and 8 INT through the air plus 786 yards (6.3 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Although Williams had a huge throwing game at Clemson last year with 345 yards (9.1 YPA) and 4 TD passes, he was held to minus-3 yards on the ground. UNC's big ground gainer that day was RB Elijah Hood, who ran for 71 yards on 13 carries (5.5 YPC) and a touchdown, but those numbers are quite mild compared to what he's done as a sophomore. Hood has increased his season YPC from 3.9 to 6.7 with 1,280 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns. He has rushed for more than 100 yards on seven different occasions and is coming off a career-high 220 yards on just 21 carries (10.5 YPC) and two scores at NC State. While the Carolina offense should be able to put up points, it's not certain the defense can contain Clemson's attack. UNC gives up only 20.7 PPG on 395 total YPG this year, but those numbers have jumped to 27.3 PPG on 447 total YPG over the past three contests. The run-stop unit has been steamrolled for 209 YPG on 4.7 YPC, but the passing defense has been much more sound with allowing 186 YPG on 6.0 YPA and 54% completions. Carolina has also forced 16 turnovers during the past six games and hopes that the Tigers cough up the football at least three more times like it has done for three consecutive games.

Despite Clemson's turnover woes, it is still producing a hefty 37.9 PPG on 502 total YPG this season. While the team is more proficient in gaining yards through the air with 289 YPG (8.5 YPA, 70% completions), the ground game also rolls up 213 YPG on 4.9 YPC. This great balance is largely a product of QB Deshaun Watson, who has thrown for 3,223 yards (8.7 YPA), 27 TD and 10 TD this season, while also rushing for 756 yards (5.4 YPC) and 9 TD. Watson had a field day against North Carolina last season when he completed 27-of-36 throws for 435 yards (12.1 YPA) and six touchdowns, and picked up 28 yards with his legs. Watson does a great job of progressing through his reads, as four different Clemson receivers have at least 400 yards and 4 TD this season. Sophomore WR Artavis Scott (77 rec, 709 yds, 4 TD) leads this group, and he caught eight passes for 66 yards and a touchdown in last year's win versus the Tar Heels. To keep defenses honest, the Tigers will lean heavily on RB Wayne Gallman who has carried the football 215 times this season for 1,145 yards (5.3 YPC) and nine touchdowns. In the past nine games, Gallman has rushed for at least 100 yards on seven different occasions, including 102 on 19 carries (5.4 YPC) last week. The Clemson defense is sometimes overshadowed by the offense, but this unit has been stellar all season in holding opponents to 18.8 PPG on 289 total YPG. As good as the run defense has been in limiting teams to 128 YPG on 3.7 YPC, the Tigers have been outstanding in preventing big plays through the air with only 161 YPG on 5.8 YPA and a meager 47% completion rate for opposing quarterbacks. They are also skilled in taking away the football with 10 forced turnovers in the past six games, and are facing a Carolina offense with three turnovers in two straight contests.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: