StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

#19 Houston, #22 Temple meet Saturday afternoon
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/3/2015  at  4:29:00 PM
  Print This Article    

TEMPLE OWLS (10-2)
at HOUSTON COUGARS (11-1)

American Athletic Conference Championship Game
TDECU Stadium - Houston, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: Houston -6, Total: 54.5

No. 19 Houston and No. 22 Temple look to add another win to their outstanding 2015 campaigns on Saturday afternoon when the schools meet in the AAC Championship Game.

Both teams are 7-1 in conference play this season with the Owls (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) doing it by way of defense (18.7 PPG allowed) and the Cougars (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS) being propelled by an explosive offense averaging 42.0 PPG. After surrendering 44 points in a loss at South Florida, Temple has held the past two opponents to a combined 15 points, including a 27-3 drubbing of Connecticut on Saturday. This was the same UConn team that handed Houston its only loss of the season -- 20-17 on Nov. 21 -- but UH recovered quickly and pounded Navy six days later by a score of 52-31. These teams have met just twice in AAC play with the Cougars winning both in 2013 (22-13 on the road) and then pounding the Owls 31-10 at home last year. There are plenty of reasons for bettor optimism for both schools in this matchup, as Temple is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus good teams (10+ PPG margin) in the past three seasons and 16-6 ATS as an underdog under head coach Matt Rhule. However, Houston is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the past three seasons after playing a high-scoring affair where 70+ points were scored, and college football home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points are 26-7 ATS in conference games since 1992 after an upset win by double-digits as a home underdog. Both teams have some injury concerns for Saturday, as Temple could be without WR John Christopher and TE Colin Thompson, who are both questionable with undisclosed injuries. The list is longer for the Cougars with top RB Kenneth Farrow (foot), QB Kyle Postma (knee), OL Colton Freeman (stinger) and DB Jeremy Winchester (knee) all considered questionable to play, while seldom-used RB Tyreik Gray (personal) left the program last week.

Which team will capture the AAC title on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 59% ATS (42-29) success rate in the past two weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's amazing 77% ATS mark (17-5) during this run. StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (10-8) in the past two weeks.

Temple does a nice job of controlling the clock with a run-oriented offense possessing the football for an average of 33:01 per game. The rushing attack compiles 158 YPG on 4.1 YPC, while the team is also efficient through the air with 209 YPG on 7.1 YPA. Junior RB Jahad Thomas is the focal point of the offense with 1,188 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) plus 210 receiving yards, and has scored 18 times this season. Only once did he not find the end zone, which was two games ago versus Memphis. But Thomas bounced back strong last week with 119 yards on 6.0 YPC and two touchdowns. The Owls also have a heady signal caller in junior QB P.J. Walker who has thrown for a modest 2,450 yards (7.1 YPA), but has a great ratio of 18 TD passes and only six picks. Last year Walker was horrible versus the Houston defense with a 41% completion rate (12-of-29) and three interceptions. Senior WR Robby Anderson (52 rec, 723 yds, 6 TD) is Walker's No. 1 target, but freshman WR Ventell Bryant (36 rec, 507 yds, 3 TD) has gained more than 80 yards in three of the past five games. The Temple defense is very tough in all facets with 18.7 PPG and 328 total YPG allowed, but those numbers swell to 25.0 PPG and 447 total YPG on the road. Opponents are gaining just 117 YPG on 3.6 YPC on the ground, but have been much more efficient picking on the Owls pass defense with 211 passing YPG on 6.1 YPA. Temple has also forced a sufficient 22 turnovers in 12 games this year, but only three have come during the past three contests.

Houston has scored at least 33 points in all but one game this season, the 20-17 loss at UConn two weeks ago. For the season, this Cougars offense has produced a hefty 42.0 PPG on 500 total YPG with a slight uptick at home with 44.9 PPG and 503 total YPG during its seven wins in Houston. While this team is known for its air attack, it actually runs the football on 62% of its plays for 241 YPG on 5.0 YPC and throws for 259 YPG on 8.5 YPA. Junior QB Greg Ward Jr. is the engine of this offense with 2,502 passing yards (8.8 YPA) on 69% completions with 16 TD and just 5 INT. Ward is coming off a season high 308 passing yards against Navy where he also ran for 83 yards and a touchdown, and in last year's romp over Temple, Ward had a near-perfect throwing performance with 29-of-33 completions for 268 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. He is also the team's second-leading rusher with 893 yards on 5.5 YPC and 17 touchdowns, and will get even more carries if top RB Kenneth Farrow (949 rush yds, 5.2 YPC, 12 TD) is unable to play. The go-to receiver is clearly WR Demarcus Ayers who has 89 catches for 1,140 yards and six touchdowns. The junior has at least 120 receiving yards on four different occasions this year. Defensively, the Cougars have been pretty stingy all season in holding teams to 21.1 PPG on 381 total YPG. Opposing rushers are gaining a mere 117 YPG on 3.3 YPC while the pass defense has been too generous in allowing 263 YPG on 7.7 YPA. Although Houston has just one takeaway in the past two games combined, this club has forced seven turnovers during the past two victories over Temple.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: