Mountain West Championship Game
Qualcomm Stadium - San Diego, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Diego State -6, Total: 49

San Diego State will try to remain perfect in conference play on Saturday night when it hosts Air Force in the Mountain West Championship Game.

The Falcons (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) recently rolled up five straight wins (SU and ATS) including upset victories over Utah State and at double-digit-favorite Boise State, but that streak ended in a big way last week with a humiliating 47-35 defeat to 11-point underdog New Mexico. The Aztecs (9-3 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) haven't lost since September, crushing all eight MWC opponents by an average score of 36 to 11. However, the most recent win on Nov. 28 versus Nevada came at a steep price with starting QB Maxwell Smith suffering a torn ACL. His backup is freshman QB Christian Chapman, who has completed only 12-of-24 passes this season. These conference foes are meeting for the 17th straight year with San Diego State holding the 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS advantages, including five consecutive wins (SU and ATS). In last year's meeting, Air Force led 14-13 at halftime, but was outscored 17-0 in the final two quarters and fell by a 30-14 margin. There are plenty of strong betting trends for both of these schools, as the Falcons are 17-5 ATS under head coach Troy Calhoun when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, and college football road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 50-19 ATS (73%) since 1992 when playing a conference game after an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. But the Aztecs are a perfect 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points under head coach Rocky Long -- winning those games by an average of 16.6 PPG -- and college football home teams are 51-23 ATS (69%) since 1992 after outrushing a team by 150+ YPG in two straight games against an opponent after being outrushed by 125+ yards in its previous contest. In addition to Maxwell Smith, San Diego State also lost DL Christian Heyward to a season-ending knee injury last week, but there are no other significant injuries of concern. Air Force will play this game without a pair of ball carriers that suffered long-term injuries last week with RBs Shayne Davern (knee) and D.J. Johnson (hamstring) who have combined for 748 rushing yards and 10 TD this season.

Can San Diego State extend its win streak with a comfortable victory on Saturday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 59% ATS (42-29) success rate in the past two weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's amazing 77% ATS mark (17-5) during this run. StatFox Dave is 56% ATS (10-8) in the past two weeks.

Air Force loves to run the football out of the triple-option set, choosing to keep the ball on the ground for 83% of its play-calls this season. The team has rushed for 323 YPG on 60 carries per game (5.4 YPC), which is why its time of possession is a hefty 32:45. Even with a couple of capable running backs sidelined, the Falcons have plenty of solid ball carriers, including the team's top rusher, RB Jacobi Owens (853 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 6 TD). The junior has gained more than 130 yards in all three games where he has carried the football 20+ times, including 145 yards at Boise State two weeks ago. Owens did not play in last year's loss at San Diego State when he watched his team pick up a meager 140 yards on 3.4 YPC, but should play a major role on Saturday. The most important player on the Air Force offense is senior QB Karson Roberts, who is the team's second-leading rusher (591 yds, 4.3 YPC, 9 TD) and has thrown for an outstanding 11.5 YPA this season. However, Roberts has completed only 53% of his passes and has more interceptions (10) than TD tosses (9). On the rare occasion that Roberts does drop back to pass, he's usually targeting either junior WR Jalen Robinette or senior WR Garrett Brown who have combined for 1,106 receiving yards while the rest of the team has only 557 receiving yards. The Air Force defense has strong overall numbers at 22.9 PPG allowed on 329 total YPG, but has really struggled in the past three games where it has surrendered 35.0 PPG on 443 total YPG. For the season, the unit allows 139 YPG on 4.2 YPC on the ground and 189 passing YPG on 6.8 YPA, but only 51% completions, through the air. The Falcons also need to force more turnovers with just two takeaways in the past four weeks, but will be hard-pressed to rip the football away from an Aztecs offense that has zero turnovers in five of its past six contests.

San Diego State averages a modest 31.7 PPG on 374 total YPG, but those numbers have jumped to 40.3 PPG and 411 total YPG over the past three contests. Like the Falcons, the Aztecs have a run-first mentality with 72% of their snaps being rushing plays. That has resulted in 235 rushing YPG (4.9 YPC) and only 138 passing YPG (7.4 YPA). Junior RB Donnel Pumphrey is wrapping up another monster season with 1,464 rushing yards (5.5 YPC), 333 receiving yards and 18 total touchdowns. He has rushed for more than 120 yards in all eight games versus MWC foes with touchdowns in all but one of those contests (Wyoming). He was also the best offensive player on the field versus Air Force last year when he ran for 131 yards on 27 carries (4.9 YPC), caught a 14-yard pass and ran for a crucial 12-yard touchdown late in the third quarter to extend the lead from two to nine points. With QB Christian Chapman making his first career start, Pumphrey and No. 2 RB Chase Price (889 rush yds, 5.6 YPC, 6 TD) will both be very busy on Saturday. San Diego State clearly has the best defense in the MWC, as it limits opponents to just 16.6 PPG and 284 total YPG, and holds conference foes to a meager 11.2 PPG and 227 total YPG. The run-stop unit is nearly impenetrable in holding teams to 95 YPG on 2.8 YPC, while the passing defense limits opponents to 189 YPG on 6.7 YPA and 53% completions. Turnovers have been huge for the Aztecs, who have an eye-popping 23 takeaways in the past seven games and are facing an Air Force offense that has coughed up the football seven times in the past two contests.