McLane Stadium - Waco, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, Noon ET
Line: Baylor -20.5, Total: 67.5

No. 12 Baylor tries to reach double-digit victories when it hosts a struggling Texas team that miraculously still has hopes of playing in the postseason.

The Longhorns are just 4-7 SU (4-6-1 ATS), but with all 40 bowls unable to fill up with .500 or better teams, there will be a handful of losing teams participating in the college football postseason. But getting to five wins is no lock for Texas, which hasn't won a true road game all season, losing by a combined score of 150 to 30 at Notre Dame, TCU, Iowa State and West Virginia. The Bears are having a great year at 9-2 SU (5-6 ATS), but both of their defeats have come in the past three weeks, with a 44-34 home loss to Oklahoma and a heart-breaking 28-21, double overtime defeat at TCU last Friday. But they can still make a New Year's Day bowl for the third straight season and are playing a team they have beaten soundly in each of the past two years, 30-10 in Waco and 28-7 in Austin. Although Baylor has won the past two home games in this series, Texas is still 7-4 (SU and ATS) in Waco since 1992. Both schools have plenty of betting trends to side with on Saturday, as the Longhorns are 38-21 ATS on the road since 1992 versus teams averaging 60+ penalty YPG, and Charlie Strong is 14-2 ATS on the road after an SU loss in his coaching career. But the Bears are a perfect 7-0 ATS as a home favorite of 14.5 to 21 points under head coach Art Briles, and are facing a team that is 1-10 ATS since 2013 after a game where it forced 3+ turnovers. Both teams are riddled with injuries in this regular-season finale, as Texas is expected to be without starting QB Jerrod Heard (concussion), top RB D'Onta Foreman (finger) and three of its best defensive players in LB Malik Jefferson (ankle), LB Peter Jinkens (knee) and DB Dylan Haines (undisclosed). Baylor will continue to miss its top two QBs Seth Russell (neck) and Jarrett Stidham (ankle) while four key defenders are questionable in DBs Orion Stewart (hamstring) and Terrell Burt (ankle), and DLs Byron Bonds and Beau Blackshear, who both have undisclosed ailments.

Can Texas pull off the major upset on Saturday, or will Baylor roll to its 10th victory of the season? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the 2015 regular season and bowl season. The experts combined for a 61% ATS (22-14) success rate last week, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 73% ATS mark (8-3). StatFox Brian was 71% ATS (5-2) last week, while StatFox Dave was 63% ATS (5-3).

Texas had only seven giveaways combined in its first nine contests before coughing up seven turnovers in the past two weeks. The Longhorns were able to protect the football by choosing to run 68% of the time, gaining a solid 231 YPG on 5.2 YPC. With its top two RBs D'Onta Foreman (681 rush yds) and Johnathan Gray (489 rush yds) both banged-up last week versus Texas Tech, freshman RB Chris Warren III was the featured back and exploded for 276 yards on 25 carries (11.0 YPC) and four touchdowns. Gray (foot) is expected to play in what should be his final collegiate game, and ran very well against Baylor last year when he picked up 79 yards on 12 carries (6.6 YPC) and a touchdown. Although Texas has thrown for just 145 YPG this season, its 6.9 YPA isn't terrible. With freshman QB Jerrod Heard (1,214 pass yds, 7.7 YPA, 5 TD, 5 INT) unlikely to play, junior QB Tyrone Swoopes (47% completions, 386 pass yds, 5.2 YPA, 3 TD, 1 INT) will get the start. Swoopes isn't much of a passer, but does a great job of running the football out of the Wildcat packages with 399 rushing yards (6.2 YPC) and 11 touchdowns this season. When Swoopes is called on to pass, he'll look for his only two teammates with more than 200 receiving yards this year, freshman WR John Burt (436 rec yds, 18.2 avg, 2 TD) and senior WR Daje Johnson (364 rec yds, 10.7 avg, 1 TD). The Longhorns defense has been subpar this season in surrendering 31.5 PPG on 450 total YPG. The run-stop unit is giving up 203 YPG on 4.3 YPC, including a beefy 245 YPG and 4.8 YPC over the past four games. The passing defense hasn't been much better in allowing 247 YPG on 7.7 YPA and a 61% completion rate this season. This unit has done a much better job of taking the ball away though, with nine forced turnovers in the past three weeks, which came on the heels of just two takeaways in four October games. That's not a good sign for the Bears who have turned the ball over 11 times in this same three-week timespan.

Baylor has an outstanding offense that has piled up 50.8 PPG on 616 total YPG (7.5 yards per play) this season, and the numbers are even more ridiculous at home (55.4 PPG, 634 total YPG). But without its top two signal callers, this offense managed just 14 points in regulation and 335 total yards in a double-overtime game last week. Sophomore QB Chris Johnson played very well in the win at Oklahoma State two weeks ago (138 pass yards, 13.8 YPA, 2 TD, 1 INT; 42 rush yds, 7.0 YPC, 1 TD) but really looked like a third-stringer in last week's loss in rainy Fort Worth. Johnson completed only 7-of-24 throws for 62 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT while rushing for only 13 yards on 15 carries. However, the playing conditions should be much better this week, which will allow him to more frequently target his dynamic pass-catching duo of WRs Corey Coleman (67 rec, 1,314 yds, 20 TD) and KD Cannon (42 rec, 802 yds, 6 TD). But the key to this game could be whether RB Shock Linwood's knee will hold up for 20 carries. The junior has rushed for 1,298 yards on 6.9 YPC with 10 touchdowns this season, but was held to a season-low 4.1 YPC (14 rushes, 58 yards) last week. However, Linwood had no trouble finding holes in Austin last year when he ran for 148 yards on 28 carries (5.3 YPC) with a touchdown. The Baylor defense has given up only 27.9 PPG and 397 total YPG this season, but those numbers have climbed to 35.7 PPG and 418 total YPG during the past three contests. The defense has been on the field for an average of 33:23 per game this year, but is still holding teams to 156 YPG on 3.6 YPC on the ground, and a respectable 240 YPG on 6.9 YPA through the air. The Bears have forced only three turnovers in the past three games, but are facing a Longhorns offense that had five giveaways in its last road game at West Virginia.