The Wildcats (6-6 ATS overall, 3-3 ATS on road) haven't won a game in regulation since Oct. 17, losing four of their last five SU with the lone win being in double overtime versus Utah. The Lobos (6-6 ATS overall, 3-4 ATS at home) were 3-1 (SU and ATS) in November capped off by an impressive 47-35 win over 11-point favorite Air Force. These schools faced two common opponents this year (Nevada and Arizona State) with Arizona scoring 40.5 PPG against the pair and New Mexico managing only 13.5 PPG in those two contests. But this season, the Wildcats allow 40.8 PPG away from home and the Lobos are 5-2 SU with 33.6 PPG at University Stadium. Also, most of the betting trends in this matchup favor New Mexico, such as its 10-2 ATS mark after an upset win in conference play as a home underdog since 1992, and its opponent's 0-8 ATS record after a 2-1 ATS run in a three-game stretch since the start of last season. Bettors expecting a big Arizona win can point to its opponent's negative trend that college football home underdogs are 18-45 ATS (29%) since 1992 in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.6 yards per play) after 7+ games, after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in their previous contest. Although Wildcats top RB Nick Wilson (undisclosed) is doubtful to play and WR Samajie Grant (head) and OL Freddie Tagaloa (knee) are both questionable, the team expects to have both top QB Anu Solomon (concussion) and superstar LB Scooby Wright (foot) in action. The Lobos have no new injuries to contend with.
Can New Mexico pull off the upset on its home field? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts enter bowl season on a roll with a combined 57% ATS (52-39) Best Bets record over the past three weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 66% ATS mark (19-10). StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) and StatFox Dave has a 55% ATS (12-10) record during this timeframe.
Arizona's offense has amassed 36.7 PPG and 494 total YPG this season with a healthy balance of 227 rushing YPG (5.5 YPC) and 267 passing YPG (7.3 YPA). Although leading rusher, RB Nick Wilson (725 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 8 TD), will not likely play, the team has two other capable ball carriers in QB Jerrard Randall (702 rush yds, 9.0 YPC, 5 TD) and RB Jared Baker (691 rush yds, 5.8 YPC, 6 TD). The senior Randall has had three games with more than 100 rushing yards this season, while the senior Baker has surpassed the century mark twice, including 207 yards on 23 carries (9.0 YPC) at Colorado on Oct. 17. But the key to this offense is the health of sophomore QB Anu Solomon, who has completed 63% of his passes for 2,338 yards (7.6 YPA), 18 TD and only 4 INT. Solomon has thrown at least two touchdown passes in six of 10 games this year and also rushed for a season-high 86 yards and a score in his last game against Utah. Solomon has four pass catchers with more than 500 receiving yards this year in WRs Cayleb Jones (722 yds, 4 TD), Johnny Jackson (612 yds, 5 TD), Nate Phillips (546 yds, 4 TD) and David Richards (514 yds, 5 TD). Defensively, the Wildcats have struggled all season in allowing 35.7 PPG on 463 total YPG, including 40.0 PPG and 493 YPG in the past three contests. Being on the field for an average of 33:06 doesn't help either their run defense (188 YPG allowed on 4.4 YPC) or pass defense (275 YPG on 7.8 YPA). However, the unit has forced two turnovers in each of the past two games, and superstar LB Scooby Wright will be back on the field for the first time since September to wreak havoc.
New Mexico's offense has averaged a solid 29.3 PPG on 378 total YPG this year with a slight uptick in the past three contests to 33.0 PPG and 417 total YPG. The strength of this attack is clearly on the ground (248 YPG on 5.2 YPC), which includes 645 rushing yards on a hefty 6.1 YPC over the past two games. The ball-carrying duties are nearly an equal split between three players, RBs Jhurell Pressley (846 rush yds, 6.3 YPC, 11 TD), Teriyon Gipson (766 rush yds, 5.8 YPC, 6 TD) and QB Lamar Jordan (672 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD) who have 135, 132 and 126 carries, respectively. Pressley is coming off a career-high 170 yards (10.0 YPC) and career-high-tying three touchdowns in the win over Air Force, while Gipson is averaging 82 rushing YPG since the start of October, including 71 yards (5.9 YPC) versus the Falcons. Although Jordan has a solid 8.6 YPA as a passer, he has completed just 53% of his throws with more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (4). In the past three games, the sophomore is 9-for-19 for 239 yards, 0 TD and 4 INT. The Lobos aren't a great defensive team as they surrender 27.0 PPG and 432 total YPG. While opponents run for 194 YPG on 4.5 YPC, they also complete 58% of their throws for 238 YPG on 8.0 YPA. Turnovers are key for this unit that has 19 forced turnovers in seven wins and only four total takeaways during five defeats.
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