The Cougars are 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) since October 1, with their only loss being by four points on the road at an SEC school (Missouri). Meanwhile the Utes are 1-5 ATS (3-3 SU) in the past six contests, with the lone win and cover coming at Washington on Nov. 7. These long-time rival schools met every year from 1945 to 2013 but did not square off last season. Utah has won nine of the past 12 meetings including four in a row, but BYU usually keeps the score close, as seven of the past nine meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Although the Utes are 9-1 ATS in non-conference games in the past three seasons, all college football teams after an ATS loss versus an opponent with 2+ straight ATS wins are just 47-98 ATS (32%) in the past five seasons when the line is +3 to -3. Utah will likely be without star RB Devontae Booker (knee), who has rushed for 1,261 yards and 11 TD this season, and will also be thin at wideout with its top two pass catchers most likely sidelined in WR Britain Covey (undisclosed, doubtful) and WR Kenneth Scott (leg, out). For BYU, there have been no new additions to the injury report since TE Bryan Sampson (ankle) and LB Rhett Sandlin (neck) both suffered season-ending injuries in November. This will be last game for Cougars head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who will coach Virginia next season.
Which in-state rival will cap off its season with a victory? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts enter bowl season on a roll with a combined 57% ATS (52-39) Best Bets record over the past three weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 66% ATS mark (19-10). StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) and StatFox Dave has a 55% ATS (12-10) record during this timeframe.
Although BYU lost star QB Taysom Hill with a broken foot in the season opener, the school has still managed to produce 34.2 PPG and 428 total YPG during the 2015 campaign. Much of this yardage has come through the air (295 YPG on 7.9 YPA), as the ground game remains subpar with only 133 YPG on 4.1 YPC. In the past four contests, the Cougars have averaged a mere 79 rushing YPG on 3.0 YPC. But Hill's replacement, freshman QB Tanner Mangum, has done an excellent job all year with a 62% completion rate, a school freshman record 3,062 passing yards (7.9 YPA), 21 TD and 7 INT. In the past seven games, Mangum has thrown 15 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The only negative is the 26 sacks he has taken, but Mangum has done a great job in spreading his passes around, as five different BYU players have more than 400 receiving yards. The clear leader of this group is 6-foot-6 senior WR Mitch Mathews, who has 729 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns this season, and is coming off a season-high, 158-yard effort with two touchdowns at Utah State. Mathews had a great performance in last season's Miami Beach Bowl when he caught nine passes for 82 yards and a touchdown in his team's 55-48 loss to Memphis in double overtime. The Cougars defense has been consistently great all season in limiting opponents to 21.8 PPG on 358 total YPG. The run-stop unit allows only 3.7 YPC (145 rush YPG) and opposing quarterbacks complete just 56% of passes for 213 YPG (6.5 YPA). This BYU defense has also forced multiple turnovers eight times this season including each of the past three games. That's not a good sign for the Utes, who have multiple giveaways in four straight contests.
Utah's offense averages a solid 30.2 PPG and 377 total YPG this season, and those numbers are even better away from home (39.0 PPG, 410 total YPG). But the top three skill players are all expected to be sidelined on Saturday in RB Devontae Booker (1,261 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 11 TD) and WRs Britain Covey (518 rec yds, 4 TD) and WR Kenneth Scott (448 rec yds, 4 TD). That puts more pressure on inconsistent QB Travis Wilson (62% completions, 2,024 pass yds, 13 TD, 10 INT) to move the football with a subpar receiving corps whose only healthy player reaching 200 yards this season is TE Harrison Handley (270 rec yds, 4 TD). In last year's Las Vegas Bowl against Colorado State, Wilson threw for a pedestrian 158 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, but he also ran for 91 yards (8.3 YPC) and three touchdowns in the 45-10 rout. Wilson has also used his legs nicely this season with 467 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) and 6 TD. Wilson and junior RB Joe Williams (386 rush yds, 4.9 YPC, 1 TD) will continue to handle the bulk of the rushing load. Williams has done an excellent job filling in for Booker with 308 yards on 60 carries (5.1 YPC) over the past two games, and should expect another 20+ carries on Saturday. The Utes defense has done a nice job this season in holding opponents to 21.8 PPG on 365 total YPG. They are especially adept at stuffing the run (112 YPG on 3.3 YPC) as opposing quarterbacks throw for 253 YPG (7.0 YPA) on a 55% completion rate. Turnovers are a big part of this unit's success, as Utah has amassed 27 takeaways during nine wins, but has forced only two turnovers combined in its three defeats.
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