Boca Raton Bowl
FAU Stadium - Boca Raton, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Temple -2, Total: 49.5

Toledo and No. 24 Temple, two teams hoping to bounce back from disappointing results, will escape the cold weather and square off in Boca Raton, FL on Tuesday night.

The Rockets (8-2-1 ATS) missed out on a chance to play in the MAC title game with a 35-30 home loss to Western Michigan while the Owls (9-4 ATS) were beaten 24-13 by Houston in the AAC Championship. These schools have met six times since 1998, and all six contests have been decided by 12 or more points with Toledo as the big winner in five of these matchups. Rockets head coach Matt Campbell left for Iowa State, and the team promoted OC Jason Candle to direct the team in this postseason tilt. Toledo is 6-1 ATS since 2013 when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points, and is also 5-1 ATS this season after committing less than two turnovers in a game. However, Temple is 44-23 ATS off one or more consecutive Unders since 1992 and is facing an opponent that is 0-7 ATS since 2013 after allowing 6.25+ yards per play in its previous game. There are no significant injuries for either school in this matchup.

Can Toledo pick up its 10th win of the season on Tuesday night? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts enter bowl season on a roll with a combined 57% ATS (52-39) Best Bets record over the past three weeks, highlighted by StatFox Scott's 66% ATS mark (19-10). StatFox Brian is 58% ATS (11-8) and StatFox Dave has a 55% ATS (12-10) record during this timeframe.

Toledo's offense is quite potent this season with 35.3 PPG and 464 total YPG, and those numbers are just as strong (32.6 PPG, 456 total YPG) away from home where it has a perfect 5-0 record (SU and ATS). The Rockets are known more for their air attack that gains 250 YPG on 7.2 YPA, but they also run the football quite well with 214 YPG on 5.1 YPC. Both RBs Kareem Hunt (894 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 10 TD) and Terry Swanson (870 rush yds, 6.6 YPC, 7 TD) are very capable of chewing up yards. The 225-pound junior Hunt has strung together four straight games of 110+ rushing yards, totaling 545 yards and 7 TD during this streak. The 202-pound sophomore Swanson has four games of at least 115 yards this season and has scored a touchdown in five of the past seven contests. If the ground game falters, QB Phillip Ely (55% completions, 2,680 yds, 21 TD, 10 INT) is a capable passer with at least eight games of 200+ passing yards this season. In the past three games he has thrown 5 TD with only 1 INT. Toledo's defense sometimes gets overshadowed by the offense, but the unit does a nice job in limiting teams to 21.1 PPG on 379 total YPG. The run-stop unit is outstanding, as it gives up only 118 YPG on 3.4 YPC, but the secondary is more generous with 261 YPG on 6.6 YPA. The unit has forced nine turnovers in the past four games, but the Owls have only six giveaways in the past seven games combined.

Temple is scoring 30.8 PPG on 369 total YPG this season, but those points have fallen greatly in the past three games to 23.7 PPG despite a solid 389 total YPG. The Owls are a balanced offense that averages a beefy 33:01 time of possession due to a ground game piling up 154 YPG on 4.1 YPC. The passing game can also move the chains with a 57% completion rate leading to 215 YPG on 7.1 YPA. Junior QB P.J. Walker has thrown for 2,737 yards (7.0 YPA), 19 TD and 7 INT this season, which is a huge improvement from his miserable ratio of 13 TD and 15 INT from a year ago. Walker has thrown at least one touchdown in 12 straight games, including 9 TD and 3 INT over the past five games. His top target is senior WR Robby Anderson (64 rec, 873 yds, 7 TD), who is coming off a season-high 150 yards on 12 receptions and a touchdown in the AAC title game loss at Houston. But for Temple to win this football, game, junior RB Jahad Thomas (1,257 rush yds, 4.7 YPC, 17 TD) will need to step up like he did earlier in the season when he had four 100-yard efforts in the first six games. Over the past seven contests, Thomas has just one game at the century mark, when he rumbled for 119 yards (6.0 YPC) and 2 TD in a win over UConn. Defensively, the Owls limit teams to 19.2 PPG on 329 total YPG, and those numbers have improved to 13.0 PPG on 236 total YPG in the past three contests, which is impressive since the unit has forced just two turnovers in this timeframe. The run-stop unit is particularly stingy in holding teams to 126 YPG on 3.8 YPC, while the passing defense allows 203 YPG on 6.0 YPA.