Bahamas Bowl
Thomas Robinson Stadium - Bahamas
Kickoff: Thursday, Noon ET
Line: Western Michigan -4.5, Total: 63.5

Two surging teams will spend Christmas Eve in the Bahamas when Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan play in Nassau.

The Blue Raiders (8-4 ATS) are coming off a perfect 4-0 November (SU and ATS) while the Broncos (7-5 ATS) are 6-2 SU in their past eight games including a road upset at Toledo in the regular-season finale. Expect plenty of passing in this matchup, as Middle Tennessee freshman QB Brent Stockstill has thrown for more than 250 yards in 10 straight games while Western Michigan boasts a pair of 1,200-yard pass catchers in WRs Daniel Braverman (103 rec, 12 TD) and Corey Davis (82 rec, 11 TD). Both teams have huge betting trends in their favor, as the Blue Raiders are 21-10 ATS after 2+ straight ATS wins under head coach Rick Stockstill, and the Broncos are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the past two seasons in non-home games after committing less than two turnovers. All of the significant injuries in this game are Middle Tennessee ailments, as six players are listed as questionable -- RB Jeremiah Bryson, TE Tyler Barron, DE Jahmal Jones, DB Jeremy Cutrer and LBs Myles Harges and Anfornee Stewart.

Which school will leave the Bahamas with its eighth victory of 2015? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 57% ATS (55-42) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s robust 63% ATS mark (20-12) during this run. Also during this timeframe that started Nov. 19, StatFox Brian has a strong 60% ATS record (12-8) in college football Best Bets and StatFox Gary is a profitable 58% ATS (7-5) since Week 13.

Middle Tennessee has scored a strong 34.2 PPG on 464 total YPG this season, but those numbers slip to a pedestrian 24.2 PPG on 402 total YPG in six games away from home (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS). The Blue Raiders have a nearly even split of running plays (40 per game) and pass attempts (38 per game), but while the ground game is average (155 YPG on 3.9 YPC), the air attack is potent (309 YPG on 8.1 YPA). Freshman QB Brent Stockstill (67% completions, 3,678 pass yds, 27 TD, 8 INT) has been nearly perfect in the past two games with completing 51-of-68 passes (75%) for 579 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT. He's done a nice job getting rid of the football quickly too, absorbing only 14 sacks all season. It helps to have a pair of excellent pass catchers in WRs Richie James (100 rec, 1,220 yds, 6 TD) and Ed'Marques Batties (77 rec, 960 yds, 13 TD). The freshman James has at least six catches in every game this season and has fallen below 70 receiving yards just once all year, a 73-14 blowout of Charlotte. The senior Batties has four multi-touchdown games in 2015, but has found the end zone just once in the past three tilts. Top RB Jordan Parker has career-low 468 rushing yards, but the senior has been able to pick up 106 yards and 2 TD on just 21 carries over the past two games. On defense, Middle Tennessee has been amazing in the past three contests with allowing only 10.3 PPG on 304 total YPG, but the club still surrenders 31.8 PPG and 427 total YPG in six games away from home. Overall, the Blue Raiders are better in stopping the run (144 YPG on 3.9 YPC) than they are defending the pass (247 YPG on 6.5 YPA). They also love to get after the football with multiple takeaways on six different occasions, but their Thursday opponent has committed just eight turnovers in the past nine games.

Western Michigan's lack of mistakes allows for an impressive 35.2 PPG and 481 total YPG this season. This attack leans slightly towards the run, as the team chooses to keep the ball on the ground 56% of the time, leading to 197 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC. But the hefty 34:12 average time of possession also calls for plenty of throws, as the Broncos rack up 283 passing YPG on 9.0 YPA. Junior QB Zach Terrell completes 67% of his attempts for 3,225 yards (8.8 YPA), 27 TD and 8 INT, with most of that production going to the dynamic duo of WRs Daniel Braverman and Corey Davis, who have combined for 185 receptions, 2,519 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2015. The junior Braverman started the season with five straight games of 100+ receiving yards, but has reached 80 yards just twice over the past seven contests. But Davis, who is also a junior, has picked up at least 105 receiving yards in each of his past six games and has scored six times in the past four contests. The Broncos also have a capable ball carrier in freshman RB Jamauri Bogan (836 rush yds, 5.8 YPC) who has all produced all 12 of his touchdowns in the past seven games. After gaining at least four yards per carry in each of his first 11 collegiate contests, Bogan was held to 0.3 YPC in the regular-season finale when he rushed just seven times for two yards. The WMU defense has been on the field for less than 26 minutes per game this year, but it still allows 28.1 PPG on 411 total YPG, including a hefty 32.7 PPG on 478 total YPG in the past three contests. While the front seven allows 187 rushing YPG on a hefty 5.3 YPC, the secondary gives up 225 YPG on 7.4 YPA. The Broncos have only one takeaway in each of the past four games, but will look to get after the football in this matchup with a Middle Tennessee State team that has committed 27 turnovers this season.