Hawaii Bowl
Aloha Stadium - Honolulu, HI
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: San Diego -1.5, Total: 56.5

San Diego State seeks its 10th straight victory when it travels to Hawaii on Christmas Eve to face the high-powered Cincinnati offense.

Neither team will have the services of its top quarterback, as the Aztecs are missing QB Maxwell Smith (knee) while the Bearcats will be without QB Gunner Kiel who is dealing with a personal matter. Both schools will have to rely on freshmen under center, as San Diego State QB Christian Chapman will make his second start, while Cincinnati will turn to freshman QB Hayden Moore to operate on offense that has 36.1 PPG and 559 total YPG this season. But it won't be easy to gain yards against a San Diego State team with nine straight wins (7-1-1 ATS) on the backs of a defense limiting those nine opponents to a mere 12.7 PPG. Aztecs head coach Rocky Long is just 2-7 in his bowl career, while Bearcats head coach Tommy Tuberville is 7-5 in his career, including six wins in his past nine bowls. However, SDSU bettors can point to Tuberville's 0-8 ATS record in non-conference away games as Cincinnati's head coach. But those siding with the Bearcats can feel good about their 10-2 ATS mark in the second half of the season in the past two years. Other than the missing quarterbacks, Cincinnati WR Johnny Holton (hamstring) is questionable and San Diego State DL Christian Heyward is out after suffering a season-ending knee injury in the team's last game.

Which freshman quarterback will lead his team to victory on Thursday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 57% ATS (55-42) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s robust 63% ATS mark (20-12) during this run. Also during this timeframe that started Nov. 19, StatFox Brian has a strong 60% ATS record (12-8) in college football Best Bets and StatFox Gary is a profitable 58% ATS (7-5) since Week 13.

Although Cincinnati gains twice as many yards through the air (373 YPG on 8.7 YPA) as it does on the ground (186 YPG on 4.7 YPC), the team is nearly split with 43 passes per game and 40 rushes per contest. QB Hayden Moore has already appeared in eight games this season, totaling 1,683 yards on 59% completions and 8.6 YPA, but has just 9 TD and 8 INT. Moore showed off his strong arm in a 53-46 loss at Memphis on Sept. 24 when he threw for a whopping 557 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. His top target is senior WR Shaq Washington, who gained 120 yards in that Memphis loss and is also coming off a season-high 15 catches and 124 receiving yards in the win at East Carolina. When the Bearcats keep the football on the ground, they have three strong ball carriers to choose from. Senior RB Hosey Williams leads the club with 727 yards (5.6 YPC), but has just one touchdown over the past five games. Sophomore RB Mike Boone is the speedster with 717 yards on 7.5 YPC and 8 TD, but he has been held to 3.5 YPC in each of the past two games. Junior RB Tion Green is the short-yardage back at 230 pounds, and is enjoying career highs in rushing yards (697), yards per carry (4.9) and touchdowns (eight). The Cincinnati defense has been burned for 30.2 PPG on 415 total YPG this year, including 39.7 PPG and 511 total YPG in the past three contests. Neither the front seven (191 rush YPG, 5.0 YPC) nor the secondary (224 pass YPG, 6.8 YPA) has provided much resistance this season. This isn't a very opportunistic bunch either with a total of 14 takeaways in the 2015 season, and the Bearcats can't bank on any turnovers from an Aztecs offense with only three giveaways in the past seven games combined.

San Diego State has scored at least 27 points in eight straight games, and its 36.7 PPG and 412 total YPG over the past three contests has increased its season numbers to 31.4 PPG on 378 total YPG. The Aztecs are a run-oriented offense that keeps the football on the ground for 73% of its plays, which results in 235 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC. Junior RB Donnel Pumphrey (1,554 rush yds, 5.5 YPC, 16 TD) is tough to wrap up at 5-foot-9 and 180 pounds, and is also a capable receiver with 27 catches for 397 yards and three scores. In his last game, Pumphrey rushed for 90 yards, which ended a streak of eight straight contests with at least 120 rushing yards. SDSU also has a bruising back in 200-pound RB Chase Price (940 rush yds, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD). The senior has a pair of 150-yard rushing efforts this year and has found the end zone seven times in his past seven contests. QB Christian Chapman played very well in the MWC championship win over Air Force by completing 9-of-14 throws for 203 yards (14.5 YPA), 1 TD and 0 INT. Five of those receptions were by senior WR Jemond Hazely, whose 78 yards were a season high. The Aztecs defense has held opponents to a mere 17.2 PPG on 288 total YPG this year. The run-stop unit is downright stingy at 112 rushing YPG allowed on 3.2 YPC, but the secondary can also play with just 177 YPG allowed on 53% completions and 6.6 YPA, while recording 20 interceptions (6th-most in FBS). Over the past six games, San Diego State has tallied a whopping 18 takeaways, and Cincinnati's offense has 3+ turnovers on six different occasions this year.