Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
Kickoff: Tuesday, 2:00 p.m. ET
Line: California -7, Total: 68

Two offenses with contrasting styles will clash in Fort Worth on Tuesday with run-oriented Air Force and pass-happy California meeting in the Armed Forces Bowl.

The Falcons carry the football an average of 59 times per game for 322 YPG (3rd in FBS), while the Bears throw the pigskin 43 times per contest for 369 YPG (5th in nation). Although Air Force has a better defense statistically, the team has surrendered 33.0 PPG and 441 total YPG over the past four contests. California's defense is even more suspect, having allowed 40 points on four separate occasions and failing to force a turnover in three straight games. The Falcons are playing in their eighth bowl game in the past nine years, and are 4-2 in the past six bowls, but the Bears haven’t won a postseason game since 2008. Both schools have highly-rated betting trends with Air Force going 6-0 ATS this season after a game where it committed less than two turnovers, and Cal falling in the category of teams going 53-23 ATS (70%) in the past 10 years after gaining 6.25+ yards per play in three straight games, returning 8+ offensive starters against an opponent returning five or less defensive starters. On the injury front, the Falcons have no new injuries since losing RBs D.J. Johnson (hamstring) and Shayne Davern (knee) for the season in late November. But the Bears will likely be without four players in RB Lonny Powell (personal) and LBs Devante Downs (foot), Michael Barton (knee) and Hamilton Anoa'i (undisclosed), while two others are questionable -- WR Jack Austin (foot) and DB Griffin Piatt (collarbone).

Which team will capture the Armed Forces Bowl? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season. The experts are heating up with a combined 55% ATS (62-51) success rate in the past month of college football Best Bets, highlighted by StatFox Scott’s strong 60% ATS mark (22-15) during this run that began on Nov. 19. StatFox Brian has a healthy 58% ATS record (14-10) in college football Best Bets since Week 13.

The Air Force offense has been strong this season with 33.6 PPG on 453 total YPG (6.4 yards per play), and has a whopping 7.4 yards per play in the past three contests. The team chooses to run the football 83% of the time, which leads to a hefty 32:26 time of possession and 322 rushing YPG on 5.5 YPC. The air attack produces only 131 YPG, but does so on an eye-popping 11.0 YPA. Senior QB Karson Roberts has 10.8 YPA despite completing only 52% of his throws for 1,446 yards, 9 TD and 10 INT. He is also the team's second-leading rusher with 674 yards on 4.4 YPC with nine touchdowns. The Falcons top ball carrier is junior RB Jacobi Owens (1,009 rush yds, 5.4 YPC, 6 TD) who has rushed for at least 133 yards in four of the past seven games, including a season-high 156 in the MWC title game loss at San Diego State. Four other Air Force players have rushed for at least four touchdowns this year, as the team has amassed 42 scores on the ground. Defensively, the Falcons have held opponents to 23.2 PPG on 337 total YPG, but those numbers are way up in the past three games (34.7 PPG, 442 total YPG). They are on the field for only 27:23, which is a big reason why they allow only 147 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC and 190 passing YPG on 7.1 YPA. Air Force doesn't have a lot of playmakers on the unit, having forced just three turnovers in the past five games combined, and the Bears have committed just three giveaways in the past four contests.

California's offense has racked up 36.5 PPG on 524 total YPG this season and the numbers are through the roof in the past three contests with 41.3 PPG on 645 total YPG. While the team throws the football 56% of the time, resulting in 368 YPG on 8.6 YPA, it also has the ability to run the pigskin with 156 YPG on 4.6 YPC. Junior QB Jared Goff has completed 64% of his passes for 4,252 yards (8.6 YPA), 37 TD and 13 INT this year, which includes a season-high 542 yards in the last game versus Arizona State. In the past four contests, Goff has thrown 15 TD and only two picks. While WR Bryce Treggs (813 rec yds, 6 TD) is the only Bears player with 700 receiving yards on the roster, five others have gained at least 460 yards through the air. This includes WR Kenny Lawler (47 rec, 583 yds), who leads the club with 10 touchdown grabs. But Treggs has been the main man lately with 432 receiving yards and 3 TD over his past four games. On the ground, junior RB Khalfani Muhammad (539 rush yds, 6.9 YPC, 1 TD) is the team's rushing leader, but sophomore RB Vic Enwere (486 rush yds, 5.0 YPC) has found the end zone seven times. The Cal defense allows a beefy 30.2 PPG on 455 total YPG this season, but those numbers have spiked to 36.2 PPG on 508 total YPG in six games away from home where the club is 2-4 (SU and ATS). Neither the front seven, which allows 203 rushing YPG on 4.8 YPC, nor the secondary (252 passing YPG allowed, 7.8 YPA) has played very well this year. Although the Bears have forced only three turnovers in the second half of the season (after 21 takeaways in the first half), the Falcons have six games with multiple giveaways this year, including two of the past three.