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No. 20 LSU squares off with Texas Tech Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2015  at  11:44:00 AM
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TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (7-5)
vs. LSU TIGERS (8-3)

Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
Kickoff: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -7, Total: 74

Two of the most explosive players in college football will be on display in Houston on Tuesday night when RB Leonard Fournette leads No. 20 LSU into a Texas Bowl battle against QB Patrick Mahomes and Texas Tech.

Fournette sits atop FBS with 158 rushing YPG while Mahomes ranks first in the nation in total offense (397 total YPG). The Tigers (5-6 ATS) are a perfect 8-0 when they rush for 200+ yards, but 0-3 when they fall below that mark. Despite Mahomes’ throwing acumen, the Red Raiders (7-4-1 ATS) have shown great balance with at least 160 rushing yards in 11 of 12 games this year. But LSU gives up only 4.0 yards per carry while TTU allows a beefy 6.0 YPC. Although the Tigers, who have lost three of their past four games, are 21-8 ATS after playing a game where the teams combined for less than 30 points since 1992, most of the betting trends side with the Red Raiders, who are 9-2 ATS after allowing 31+ points in two straight games in the past two seasons and are facing an opponent that is 0-7 ATS away from home since 2013 after an SU victory. Each school is dealing with several absences, as Texas Tech saw three players leave the team earlier this month (LB Mike Mitchell, DB Jalen Barnes and DB Derrick Dixon), while No. 2 WR Devin Lauderdale was suspended indefinitely and LB Dakota Allen (ankle) is questionable to play. LSU has three undisclosed injuries in doubtful DE Maea Teuhema, while FB Bry'Kiethon Mouton and TE DeSean Smith are both questionable.

Can LSU win comfortably in Tuesday's Texas Bowl? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season.

Texas Tech has exploded for 46.6 PPG on 596 total YPG this year, but those numbers are much worse on the road (33.5 PPG on 531 total YPG). Head coach Kliff Kingsbury chooses to throw the football 57% of the time, which makes a lot of sense with his team gaining 390 YPG on 8.3 YPA through the air. However, he does a great job of mixing in the run with 206 YPG on 5.7 YPC. Sophomore QB Patrick Mahomes has completed 65% of his throws for 4,283 yards (8.3 YPA), 32 TD and 14 INT, and has gained at least 350 yards nine times this season. With WR Devin Lauderdale (639 rec yds, 4 TD) suspended, LSU will certainly give more attention to No. 1 WR Jakeem Grant (80 rec, 1,143 yds, 7 TD). The 5-foot-7, 168-pound speedster is hard to contain and is coming off a regular-season finale at Texas where he gained 147 total yards on just four touches (two catches, two runs). Sophomore WR Ian Sadler should see more targets as he burned the Longhorns for 108 yards on six catches, and also had 122 yards on eight receptions against Oklahoma State on Halloween. The 6-foot-3 Mahomes has also rushed for 484 yards (4.1 YPC) and 10 touchdowns this year, which both rank second on the team behind RB DeAndre Washington (1,455 rush yds, 6.5 YPC, 14 TD). The senior is finishing his career strong with at least 100 total yards in seven straight games where he has totaled 1,134 yards from scrimmage (162 YPG) and 11 touchdowns. The Red Raiders are a horrible defensive team with 42.6 PPG and 543 total YPG allowed this season, but that yardage total has dropped 100 yards to 443 YPG allowed over the past three contests. The run-stop unit that allows a ridiculous 275 YPG on 6.0 YPC will be hard-pressed to slow down Leonard Fournette, and the passing defense has also struggled in surrendering 268 YPG on 7.7 YPA. This is an opportunistic bunch though, as Texas Tech has forced at least two turnovers on nine different occasions this year and the Tigers offense has six giveaways in the past three contests.

LSU's offense has strong season numbers with 30.7 PPG on 420 total YPG, but has gone in the tank over the past four games with only 16.5 PPG on 337 total YPG. The Tigers run the football on 65% of their plays, leading to 247 YPG on 5.8 YPC, and they throw for only 173 YPG on 7.4 YPA. Workhorse RB Leonard Fournette (1,741 rush yds, 6.4 YPC, 18 TD) has carried the football at least 19 times in every game and has at least 90 rushing yards in all of those except one (31 yards at Alabama). The 230-pound sophomore is also being used more as a receiver with 11 catches for 151 yards over the past three games after just seven receptions over his first eight contests. Sophomore QB Brandon Harris has completed a paltry 53% of his passes this season for 1,904 yards (7.5 YPA), 12 TD and 5 INT, and since the start of November, he has completed only 60-of-126 passes (48%) for 806 yards (6.4 YPA), 3 TD and 5 INT. Harris needs to use 6-foot-3 WR Malachi Dupre more, as the team's leading receiver has 39 catches for 602 yards and 6 TD this year, but only one of those scores have come in the past four games. The Tigers defense isn't as fierce as it has been in years' past, but they still allow only 24.0 PPG and 343 total YPG this season. They still stuff the run effectively (131 rush YPG on 4.0 YPC), but are surrendering 211 YPG on 6.4 YPA through the air. LSU has forced multiple turnovers on five different occasions this season and should look to take the football away from a high-powered TTU offense that has turned the ball over 15 times in the past six contests.


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