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Auburn and Memphis collide Wednesday in Birmingham
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 12/29/2015  at  3:48:00 PM
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MEMPHIS TIGERS (9-3)
vs. AUBURN TIGERS (6-6)

Birmingham Bowl
Legion Field - Birmingham, AL
Kickoff: Wednesday, Noon ET
Line: Auburn -3, Total: 62

Two teams of Tigers will claw at one another in Wednesday's Birmingham Bowl when Memphis seeks its 10th win against a 6-6 Auburn club.

Here is the BetDSI Sportsbook betting preview for this matchup:

Memphis (6-5-1 ATS) opened the season with eight straight victories, but allowed 111 points during a three-game losing skid before beating up SMU 63-0 in the regular-season finale. Auburn has been up and down in the win column all season and is tied for the fewest ATS victories in FBS at 2-9-1 ATS. This will likely be the final game for Memphis junior QB Paxton Lynch, who is projected as a high draft pick this spring. Lynch threw 7 TD in his last game to give him 28 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions this season. There are plenty of betting trends for both schools on Wednesday, as Memphis falls in the category of excellent offensive teams (34+ PPG) going 52-21 ATS with a line of +3 to -3 since 1992 after allowing 14 points or less when facing an average defense (21-28 PPG allowed). Also, head man Darrell Dickey is 13-4 ATS after a double-digit conference win as a college head coach. But Auburn benefits from a pair of negative trends for its opponent, as Memphis is 5-20 ATS after scoring 42+ points in its last game since 1992 and 16-31 ATS after a win by 17+ points in this same timeframe. On the injury front, Memphis is the more banged-up of the two schools with four players listed as questionable -- WR Roderick Proctor, WR Jae'Lon Oglesby, OL Taylor Fallin and LB Genard Avery. For Auburn, DL Jaunta'vius Johnson is doubtful to play while DL Prince Tega Wanogho (leg) is questionable.

Which team of Tigers will prevail on Wednesday? For the answer, connect to College Football Best Bets for all the StatFox Experts picks throughout the bowl season.

Memphis has a potent offense that scores 42.7 PPG on 510 total YPG and 6.4 yards per play this season. Despite a passing game that racks up 324 YPG on 9.1 YPA, these Tigers actually rush the ball on 55% of their plays. The ground game helps the club hold the football for 30:43 per contest, as it produces a healthy 186 rushing YPG on 4.2 YPC. Junior QB Paxton Lynch (69% completions, 3,670 pass yds, 28 TD, 3 INT) stands tall at 6-foot-7 and 245 pounds, but he has taken just 15 sacks all year. Of his nine completions against SMU, seven of those wound up as touchdowns, giving him eight multi-TD games on the season. Lynch has succeeded by spreading the wealth, as nine different teammates have at least 10 catches this season and eight players have caught at least two touchdowns. On the ground, Memphis looks mostly to sophomore RB Doroland Dorceus (613 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 8 TD), who has found the end zone six times in the past six games. Defensively, Memphis has been playing great in the past three games where it has held opponents to 22.0 PPG and 317 total YPG, which lowers its season numbers to 27.0 PPG and 407 total YPG. While these Tigers defend the run very well (138 YPG on 3.4 YPC) their pass defense is below average in surrendering 269 YPG on 8.0 YPA. The unit has also forced seven turnovers in the past two games, which followed a drought of three straight contests without a takeaway. However, their opponent has been outstanding in holding onto the football with only five turnovers in the past eight games combined.

Auburn's inconsistent offense gains 27.2 PPG on 367 total YPG this year, but those numbers are curiously better away from home (30.8 PPG, 371 total YPG). This is a run-heavy offense with 65% of the plays keeping the football on the ground. As a result of this, Auburn gains 192 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC, but throws for only 175 YPG on 7.3 YPA. The team's best player is sophomore RB Peyton Barber (976 rush yds, 4.3 YPC, 13 TD), who started October with 11 rushing touchdowns during a three-game stretch, but has found the end zone only once in the past five weeks combined. Barber will need to step up to take the pressure off erratic junior QB Jeremy Johnson, who has completed 60% of his passes for 1,043 yards (6.7 YPA), 9 TD and 7 INT. He has been sacked only nine times in his nine games, and has also rushed for five touchdowns in 2015. Top WR Ricardo Louis (699 rec yds, 3 TD) has 470 more receiving yards than anybody on his roster, but has not put together two great games in a row with inconsistent receiving totals of 47, 154, 79, 137, 0, 22, 90 and 24 over the past eight games. The Auburn defense gives up 27.3 PPG on 422 total YPG this year, and hasn't been very good against either the run (190 YPG on 4.6 YPC) or the pass (232 YPG on 6.6 YPA). Away from home, the unit is allowing a hefty 233 rushing YPG on 5.4 YPC. Although Auburn has collected a pedestrian 18 forced turnovers this year, the team has produced three takeaways in two of the past four contests.


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