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LSU hosts #9 Kentucky on Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/5/2016  at  12:30:00 PM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (11-2, 1-0 SEC)

at LSU TIGERS (8-5, 1-0 SEC)

Pete Maravich Assembly Center - Baton Rouge, LA
Tip-off: Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -4.5, Total: 156

LSU superstar freshman Ben Simmons will face a ranked team for the first time in his collegiate career on Tuesday night when No. 9 Kentucky pays a visit.

The Wildcats (5-8 ATS overall, 1-3 ATS away) have dropped two straight games outside of Lexington, falling 87-77 at UCLA on Dec. 3 before losing to double-digit underdog Ohio State on a neutral court on Dec. 19 in Brooklyn. The Tigers (4-7 ATS, 3-3 ATS home) started the season with six straight ATS defeats, but are 4-1 (SU and ATS) in the past five games, which includes an impressive 90-82 win at 10-point favorite Vanderbilt on Saturday. This SEC rivalry has been dominated by Kentucky since 1997 to the tune of 18-5 SU, but LSU holds a slight 12-11 ATS advantage. The Wildcats are 7-3 SU (6-4 ATS) in Baton Rouge during this timeframe, but the Tigers beat them outright at home in 2014, and lost by just two points as a double-digit underdog at Maravich Center last season. Although favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, such as Kentucky, coming off 2+ straight home wins are 65% ATS (66-36) on Tuesday nights in the past five seasons, LSU is 13-4 ATS at home versus good defenses (42% or less FG allowed) in the past three seasons. There have been no significant injuries for either team since Tigers F Brian Bridgewater suffered a knee injury a couple weeks ago.

Can LSU knock off highly-ranked Kentucky on Tuesday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts have a profitable 53% ATS record (66-58-1) in Best Bets over the past five weeks, including 58% ATS (14-10-1) last week. StatFox Brian has a 68% ATS mark (17-8) in the past five weeks, while StatFox Zach is a profitable 55% ATS (41-37-2) over the past six weeks.

Kentucky has a quality offense that scores 78.5 PPG (87th in D-I) on a strong 47.3% FG (53rd in nation) this season, but shoots horribly from long distance (31.3% threes, 282nd in D-I). Due to its great size, the team holds a +7.6 RPG margin (27th in nation) with 14.5 offensive RPG (17th in D-I). It also generates a hefty 5.8 BPG (14th in nation), which helps the overall defense post quality numbers of 65.8 PPG (69th in D-I) on 40.2% FG (75th in nation). Meanwhile, the guards limit opponents to a paltry 29.7% threes (27th in D-I) and generate 14.3 turnovers per game (99th in nation) which is much more than the 12.9 TO per game (152nd in D-I) the team commits on offense. Six Wildcats score more than nine points per game with freshman G Jamal Murray leading the way with 16.8 PPG. Murray, who knocks down 38% threes and grabs 4.6 RPG, has scored at least a dozen points in 11 straight games, which includes 33 in the Dec. 19 loss to Ohio State. Sophomore PG Tyler Ulis (13.4 PPG, 5.9 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.7 SPG) has also been outstanding lately with 20.5 PPG (60% FG), 9.0 APG and 3.5 SPG in his past two games. Ulis shoots only 39% FG and 29% threes this season, but is making 87% FT. He was a non-factor in the narrow win at LSU last season when he managed only two points (1-of-6 FG) and three assists in 26 minutes of action. The team's final double-digit scorer is freshman G Isaiah Briscoe (11.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.1 APG) who has made only 3-of-17 shots in his past two games. In the frontcourt, 6-foot-8 F Alex Poythress (9.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG), 6-foot-11 C Skal Labissiere (9.2 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) and 6-foot-9 F Marcus Lee (9.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.0 BPG) are all imposing figures down low. The senior Poythress has pumped in 11.4 PPG on 21-of-31 FG (68%) in the past five games and also contributed 10 points and seven boards in just 17 minutes in his last trip to Baton Rouge two seasons ago.

LSU has an explosive offense that nets 84.2 PPG (20th in nation) on 47.7% FG (43rd in D-I), but makes a dreadful 31.9% threes (260th in nation). This is also a subpar rebounding team (+0.4 RPG margin, 195th in D-I) and foul shooting team (67.3% FT, 235th in nation), but is very unselfish with 17.1 APG (31st in D-I). The Tigers are very efficient on offense with only 12.0 turnovers per game (79th in nation), and they have also forced 15.7 TO per game (40th in D-I), which equals a stellar +3.7 TO margin (24th in nation, 1st in SEC). This helps combat an otherwise mediocre defense that is allowing 76.6 PPG (271st in D-I) on 43.4% FG (201st in nation) and 36.1% threes (269th in D-I). Freshman F/C Ben Simmons has not shown a weakness in any area, as he scores 20.5 PPG on 57% FG, 33% threes and 75% FT, while chipping in 13.1 RPG, 5.4 APG, 2.1 SPG and 1.4 BPG. The 6-foot-10 Simmons leads the SEC (T-6th in nation) with 10 double-doubles and has scored at least 21 points in four straight games, which includes his 36-point, 14-rebound effort in Saturday's upset at Vanderbilt. Senior G Keith Hornsby (17.5 PPG, 51% FG, 45% threes, 86% FT) has scored in double-figures in all six of his games this season, including 23 points on 8-of-13 FG (4-of-7 threes) on Saturday. Hornsby dropped 17 points (7-of-14 FG) on Kentucky last season and will be counted on to provide even more long-range shooting on Tuesday. Like Hornsby, sophomore F Craig Victor II (13.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) has scored at least 10 points in all five of his games thanks to a healthy 57% FG clip. Victor also is a great defensive player with 2.2 SPG on the season and eight steals in his past three contests.


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