StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

#6 UNC faces Boeheim-coached Syracuse Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 1/8/2016  at  2:56:00 PM
  Print This Article    

NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (14-2, 3-0 ACC)

at SYRACUSE ORANGE (10-6, 0-3 ACC)

Stephen C. O'Connell Center - Gainesville, FL
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: North Carolina -6

No. 6 North Carolina looks to extend its long win streak on Saturday night when it visits a reeling Syracuse team that is happy to get back its Hall of Fame head coach.

While the Tar Heels have ripped off seven straight wins (3-4 ATS) since their buzzer-beater loss at Texas on Dec. 12, the Orange have started conference play 0-3 SU for the first time since 1996-97. Although this is the earliest Syracuse has been saddled with six losses since 1968-69, head coach Jim Boeheim will be back on the sidelines after serving an NCAA-imposed, nine-game suspension. These schools will meet for just the third time in ACC play with the home team winning the previous two meetings by double-digits. North Carolina has outscored opponents by 18.4 PPG during its win streak, but is only 6-9-1 ATS this season. The Orange have lost three in a row (SU and ATS) by an 8.3 PPG margin, but they hold a +12.0 PPG cushion at home this season where they are 7-2 SU (4-4 ATS).

Will the return of Jim Boeheim help Syracuse put an end to Carolina's win streak? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts have a profitable 53% ATS record (66-58-1) in Best Bets over the past five weeks, including 58% ATS (14-10-1) last week. StatFox Brian has a 68% ATS mark (17-8) in the past five weeks, while StatFox Zach is a profitable 55% ATS (41-37-2) over the past six weeks.

North Carolina's offense has been hard to slow down this season with 87.8 PPG (5th in D-I) on 50.0% FG (11th in nation), but it makes only 34.1% threes (174th in D-I). The Tar Heels dominate the glass with their great size (+10.7 RPG margin, 15th in nation) and also take care of the basketball with a stellar 1.7 Ast/TO ratio (5th in D-I). This is not a great defense, though, allowing 71.6 PPG (189th in nation) on 42.2% FG (140th in D-I), and the team is horrible at defending the three-point shot (39.2%, 330th in nation). UNC's offense has five players averaging more than a dozen points, which includes star F Brice Johnson (16.8 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG) and G Marcus Paige (16.3 PPG, 3.7 APG). Johnson exploded for 39 points (14-of-16 FG) and 23 rebounds in Monday's win at Florida State, which is his third double-double in the past four games. Johnson also had a double-double against Syracuse last season when he shot a perfect 6-of-6 from the field and finished with 17 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks. Paige also dominated the Orange last season with 22 points (4-of-7 threes), eight assists, six rebounds and four steals. Paige is also having a monster 2015-16 season that began with a broken hand. The senior continues to get stronger throughout the year, and has scored at least 13 points in four straight games (18.8 PPG) including 30 against Florida State that was overshadowed by Johnson's super-human performance. F Justin Jackson (12.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.4 APG) and G Joel Berry II (12.5 PPG, 4.4 APG) are the other healthy main scorers for this team that will likely be without F Kennedy Meeks (12.3 PPG, 7.4 RPG) for an eighth straight game due to a knee injury. Considering Meeks scored 17 points with eight rebounds against the Orange last season, this could be a big omission.

Syracuse has been anemic offensively this season with only 70.8 PPG (235th in nation) on 41.8% FG (278th in D-I) and 35.4% threes (130th in nation). The team makes only 67.1% FT (232nd in D-I), but doesn't hurt itself with many turnovers (11.8 per game, 65th in nation). The defense has been pretty strong though, allowing only 65.3 PPG (55th in D-I) on 39.9% FG (65th in nation) and 30.9% threes (54th in D-I). The Orange are adept at generating steals through their active 2-3 zone, as their 143 steals rank seventh in the nation. Rebounding has been a big problem though with a minus-1.9 RPG margin (251st in D-I), and the team is facing one of the most ferocious rebounding clubs in the nation on Saturday. Syracuse has three players who provide the bulk of scoring with versatile G Michael Gbinije (18.0 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.0 RPG, 2.4 SPG), streaky shooting G Trevor Cooney (13.0 PPG, 2.8 APG, 1.9 SPG) and swingman F/G Malachi Richardson (13.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG). Gbinije can score from anywhere on the floor with a 45% FG clip and 40% threes, but he needs to make more than 63% FT. The senior has scored at least 10 points in every game this season, and is coming off a 22-point effort in an overtime loss to Clemson on Tuesday, which marks his sixth 20-point game this year. Gbinije also padded the box score at North Carolina last season when he went for 16 points, five assists and four rebounds. Cooney was the leading scorer in that loss in Chapel Hill one season ago, as he dropped 28 points. However, the senior hoisted 26 shots (10-of-26 FG) and 13 threes (4-of-13 3's) to get his avalanche of points. This season, Cooney has scored in double-figures in all but two games, but has made only 9-of-25 shots (36%) during the team's three-game losing skid. The freshman Richardson has been on a scoring binge since the new year began, netting 41 points on 10-of-13 threes, while grabbing 15 rebounds over the past two games.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: