StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Pats, Broncos clash in AFC Championship Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/24/2016  at  6:32:00 AM
  Print This Article    

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (13-4)
at DENVER BRONCOS (12-4)

Kickoff: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
AFC Championship Game
Line: New England -3.0, Total: 44.0

Peyton Manning and the Broncos host Tom Brady and the Patriots in what could be the final postseason matchup between the two legendary quarterbacks on Sunday.

The Patriots hosted the red-hot Chiefs in the Divisional Round and came away with a 27-20 victory as six-point home favorites. New England had lost its final two regular season games before playing that game, but the team put any concerns to bed with the win over Kansas City. The Broncos, meanwhile, hosted the Steelers on Sunday and came away with a 23-16 win as seven-point home favorites. Denver has won three straight games and has allowed just 20 or less points in five of its past six. The team is playing stifling defense and actually was able to win against Pittsburgh thanks to a forced fumble in the fourth quarter. The Patriots and Broncos have already met once this season and the Broncos won that game 30-24 as 2.5-point road underdogs. The teams have, however, split victories both SU and ATS over the past three seasons. Favoring the Patriots in this game is the fact that Tom Brady is 11-5 SU in his 16 meetings with Peyton Manning in his career. New England is also 9-2 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the past two seasons. LB Jerod Mayo (Shoulder) is the newest Patriots player to be lost for the season. The Broncos, meanwhile, will be entering this one at relatively close to full strength.

The Patriots have pretty much abandoned the run at this point in the season and it’s now going to be Tom Brady that will need to win this game for New England. Brady was brilliant against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, going 28-for-42 with 302 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. He also added a rushing touchdown for the Patriots as well. One big bonus for New England’s quarterback was that Julian Edelman returned from injury. Edelman looked as good as new in the win, catching 10 passes for 100 yards. His ability to make plays allowed Rob Gronkowski to run his routes with a little less attention than he usually gets and it really helped. Gronkowski caught seven passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City. Him and Edelman will now need to get open often against a very good Denver defense in order to win on Sunday. Brady should have little trouble throwing it, though. He had 280 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions the last time he faced this defense and that was in the snow. One thing that will need to happen for the Patriots is that the defense must find a way to stop the run. The Broncos rushed for 179 yards and three touchdowns the last time these teams met and that can’t happen again. Denver struggles to pass the ball and the Patriots could really give themselves a good chance of winning by slowing down the running game.

The Broncos defeated the Steelers in the Divisional Round, but it was a rather uninspiring win for the team. Offensively, Denver is going to need to be a lot better in order to defeat this high-powered Patriots team. The guy that will really need to improve is Peyton Manning. Manning struggled against Pittsburgh, going 21-for-37 with 222 yard, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Denver will need him to throw for at least a touchdown or two on Sunday. The Broncos are also going to need a big game from their running back duo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. The two combined for 108 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, but they also lit up the Patriots earlier in the season. In that victory for the Broncos, Anderson and Hillman combined for 172 yards and three touchdowns. If they can find similar success against New England on Sunday then the Denver defense should be able to put the team in a position to win. The Broncos are allowing just 18.5 PPG (4th in NFL) and have been extremely dominant as of late. They’ll need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady on Sunday, though, and that is no easy task for anybody.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: