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Florida hosts No. 22 Kentucky Tuesday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 3/1/2016  at  3:12:00 PM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (21-8, 11-5 SEC)

at FLORIDA GATORS (17-12, 8-8 SEC)

Stephen C. O'Connell Center - Gainesville, FL
Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kentucky -3, Total: 141

SEC rivals in desperate need of a win collide on Tuesday when No. 22 Kentucky visits Florida.

The Wildcats (13-16 ATS overall) are a pathetic 5-8 SU (4-9 ATS) outside of Lexington this season, which includes four losses in the past five road games. They shot just 41.8% FG in Saturday's 74-62 loss at Vanderbilt. The Gators (13-13 ATS overall) are also slumping with three straight losses where they allowed 85.3 PPG to South Carolina, Vandy and LSU. They fell 96-91 Saturday in Baton Rouge despite making 55% of their shots and scoring a hefty 62 points in the second half. Kentucky has dominated this rivalry recently with four straight wins by 7, 17, 15 and 19 points (80-61 on Feb. 6), but Florida has covered three straight meetings at home in this series. There are a number of positive betting trends for either school, as the Wildcats are 51-38 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 under head coach John Calipari, and the Gators are 0-7 ATS revenging a same-season loss versus an opponent in the past two seasons. But they are also 30-13 ATS after 3+ straight ATS losses since 1997, and home teams in games involving two average defenses (67-74 PPG allowed) after 15+ games are 118-67 ATS (64%) after scoring 85+ points in their previous game. The only injury concern is Kentucky F Derek Willis (7.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG) who is doubtful to play due to a bad ankle.

Which team will pick up the victory on Tuesday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts continue to flourish with a strong 60% ATS record (88-58-4) in the past six weeks, led by StatFox Dave at 66% ATS (19-10-1) and StatFox Zach going 59% ATS (17-12-1) over this timeframe. StatFox Brian has been on fire for nearly three months with a stellar 63% ATS record (34-20-1) in the past 11 weeks. StatFox Gary is also sizzling, going 66% ATS (29-15-1) over the past nine weeks. StatFox Scott is heating up too, evidenced by a 60% ATS (12-8) record in Best Bets over the past four weeks.

Kentucky is a quality offensive team with 78.2 PPG (58th in nation) on 47% FG (38th in D-I), but its three-point shooting is mediocre (35%, 155th in nation) and foul shooting is subpar (67% FT, 265th in D-I). This is a good passing team though, with 13.9 APG and only 11.3 TOPG for a solid 1.24 Ast/TO ratio. The defense is also strong with 67.2 PPG allowed (67th in nation) on a mere 39% FG (19th in D-I) and 33% threes (117th in nation). The opponents' shooting percentage is so low in part to the Wildcats' 5.7 blocks per game (9th in D-I), their defense forces only 12.6 TOPG (194th in nation). Freshman G Jamal Murray (19.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.0 APG) and sophomore G Tyler Ulis (16.6 PPG, 7.0 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.5 SPG) are the two big scorers for Kentucky. Murray has been on scoring binge with at least 21 points in eight straight games, which included a career-high 35 points (13-of-21 FG, 8-of-10 threes) and six boards in the Feb. 6 win versus Florida. Ulis had a double-double of 18 points and 11 assists in that blowout of the Gators, and currently leads the SEC in minutes (36:45 per game), assists (7.0 APG, 9th in nation) and Ast/TO ratio (3.70, 7th in nation). The top frontcourt scorer is senior F Alex Poythress (9.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG) who is making an impressive 61% FG this season, but is coming off a miserable Saturday at Vanderbilt when he fouled out in 16 minutes with zero points and three rebounds. Freshman G Isaiah Briscoe (9.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.0 SPG) fills up the stat sheet nightly, but has failed to reach a dozen points in eight straight games. That includes a useless three points (1-of-6 FG) in 34 minutes versus Florida last month.

Florida has struggled to shoot the ball all season with miserable rates of 42% FG (256th in nation), 32% threes (295th in D-I) and 65% FT (322nd in nation), which has led to a middling 73.6 PPG (167th in D-I). Rebounding has been strong though with a +2.9 RPG margin (88th in nation) and 13.3 offensive RPG (24th in D-I), which has helped the defense limit opponents to 67.9 PPG (80th in nation) on 41% FG (53rd in D-I) and 34% threes (175th in nation). This is also a good shot-blocking team (4.5 BPG, 55th in D-I) and it doesn't commit many turnovers (11.8 TOPG, 82nd in nation). Senior F Dorian Finney-Smith (14.9 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.1 APG) is the big man on campus, as he knocks down 39% threes and still grabs more than eight boards per game. Finney-Smith has been up-and-down lately with scoring totals of 12, 7, 18, 7 and 14 in his past five games, but he had no trouble scoring against Kentucky last month with 24 points (8-of-11 FG) and eight rebounds. Freshman G KeVaughn Allen (11.3 PPG, 2.5 RPG) did not have the same luck against the Wildcats with only three points on 1-of-6 shooting. Allen has also been in a major shooting funk during his team's three-game losing skid with 6.0 PPG on 5-of-21 FG and 0-for-10 threes. Sophomore C John Egbunu (11.1 PPG, 6.4 RPG) has played very well recently with 10+ points in seven of his past eight games, which includes 22 at LSU on Saturday and a dozen points in the loss at Kentucky. The team would like to see Egbunu use his 6-foot-11 frame on the boards more, as he has only 13 rebounds during the three-game losing skid. Sophomore F Devin Robinson (9.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is catching fire with three straight double-figure games (14.3 PPG) where he has made 15-of-26 FG (58%) and 8-of-12 threes. Robinson also tallied four steals in Saturday's loss. Guards Chris Chiozza (7.3 PPG, 4.3 APG) and Kasey Hill (8.0 PPG, 3.2 APG) and are both smart ball-handlers that rank sixth and 13th, respectively, in Ast/TO ratio in the SEC.


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