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No. 12 Indiana hosts No. 14 Maryland Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 3/6/2016  at  10:41:00 AM
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MARYLAND TERRAPINS (24-6, 12-5 Big Ten)

at INDIANA HOOSIERS (24-6, 14-3 Big Ten)

Assembly Hall - Bloomington, IN
Tip-off: Sunday, 4:30 pm ET
Line: Indiana -5.5, Total: 148

Two highly-ranked teams look to close out the regular season with a big victory on Sunday when No. 14 Maryland visits No. 12 Indiana.

The Terrapins (13-14 ATS overall) are stumbling late in the season with three losses in the past five games (SU and ATS), but they are fresh off an 81-55 pounding of Illinois on Thursday when they outshot the Illini 56% FG to 39% FG. The Hoosiers (16-14 ATS overall) have already wrapped up the Big Ten regular season title and are riding a four-game win streak, which includes an 81-78 upset win over 5-point favorite Iowa on Tuesday. These schools are meeting for just the fourth time as conference foes with all three meetings occurring last season. After Indiana rolled to an 89-70 home win, Maryland won the final two matchups, 68-66 at home and 75-69 in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. There are huge betting trends on both sides for Sunday's meeting, as schools such as Indiana with winning percentages of 60% to 80% are 113-86 ATS (57%) in the past five seasons when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their previous three games, and facing a team with a winning record. However, excellent shooting teams (47.5%+ FG) like the Hoosiers are only 57-101 ATS (36%) facing good defensive teams (40-42.5% FG) after 15+ games, after a game where a team made at least half of its three-pointers. The one injury of concern in this matchup is Indiana G Robert Johnson (ankle), who is considered questionable.

Which team will enter the Big Ten Tournament with a momentum-building victory? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts continue to flourish with a strong 60% ATS record (88-58-4) in the past six weeks, led by StatFox Dave at 66% ATS (19-10-1) and StatFox Zach going 59% ATS (17-12-1) over this timeframe. StatFox Brian has been on fire for nearly three months with a stellar 63% ATS record (34-20-1) in the past 11 weeks. StatFox Gary is also sizzling, going 66% ATS (29-15-1) over the past nine weeks. StatFox Scott is heating up too, evidenced by a 60% ATS (12-8) record in Best Bets over the past four weeks.

Maryland has a decent scoring offense (76.3 PPG, 103rd in nation) that shoots very well from the floor with 49% FG (10th in D-I) and 37% threes (71st in nation), while knocking down 76% FT (11th in D-I). Turnovers are a bit high (13.0 TOPG, 207th in nation), but this team rebounds well (+3.7 RPG margin, 64th in D-I) and dishes out a solid 14.1 assists per game (122nd in nation). The Terrapins defense is also top-notch with 65.2 PPG allowed (34th in D-I) on 40% FG (38th in nation) and 32% threes (38th in D-I). A paltry 5.9 steals per game (196th in nation) leads to a mere 11.3 forced turnovers per contest (298th in D-I), but the Terrapins block 5.8 shots per game (6th in nation) and commit only 16.6 fouls per game (25th-fewest in D-I). Senior G Melo Trimble (14.3 PPG, 5.2 APG, 3.4 RPG, 1.4 SPG) is a talented playmaker with a 1.9 Assist/TO ratio and shooting percentages of 43% FG, 34% threes and 86% FT. He has scored in double figures in 11 straight Big Ten contests, and tallied 18 points, eight rebounds and five assists in Thursday's victory. Trimble also played well versus the Hoosiers last season with 15.0 PPG in the three meetings with 17.5 PPG on 11-of-21 FG in the two victories. Both C Diamond Stone (12.7 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) and F Robert Carter (12.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.5 BPG) shoot close to the basket, resulting in 56% FG for each frontcourt player. Stone, a 6-foot-11 freshman, scored only four points in 12 minutes on Thursday, but averaged 16.5 PPG and 5.0 RPG in his previous two contests. The junior Carter has 14.8 PPG in Maryland's past four wins, but has collected only 7.3 PPG in the past three defeats. The other double-digit scorers are F Jake Layman (10.9 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) and G Rasheed Sulaimon (11.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.0 SPG) who make 50% FG and 47% FG, respectively, with Layman at 38% threes and Sulaimon knocking down a team-high 45% threes. But while Layman has been surging with 10+ points in five straight games, including 18 on Thursday, Sulaimon has scored just 20 points on 6-of-20 FG (2-of-9 threes) in his past three games combined. Layman also scored in double-figures in all three meetings with Indiana last season, averaging 13.3 PPG (56% FG) and 6.7 RPG.

Indiana can put up points in a hurry with 82.8 PPG (11th in nation) on 50% FG (3rd in D-I) and 42% threes (5th in nation). This school drains 10.1 threes per game this season (8th in D-I) and shoots a solid 72% FT (105th in nation). The Hoosiers are an excellent rebounding team with a +7.4 RPG margin (24th in D-I), but they commit way too many turnovers (13.8 TOPG, 268th in nation). However, the defense has been able to force nearly that many miscues (13.1 forced TOPG) by racking up 6.9 steals per game (82nd in D-I). Despite a strong 3.9 blocks per game (115th in nation), opponents are still scoring 69.0 PPG (111th in D-I) on 44% FG (219th in nation) and 35% threes (185th in D-I). PG Yogi Ferrell (17.1 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.9 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is clearly the engine of this offense with a sparkling 2.1 Ast/TO ratio in his 34.4 minutes per game. Ferrell has been on fire in his past three games with 18 points versus Purdue, 27 at Illinois and 20 in the upset victory at Iowa on Tuesday. He was also outstanding versus Maryland last season with 24 points (8-of-10 FG), 23 points (8-of-16 FG) and 18 points (6-of-16 FG) in the three contests. Another Hoosiers player that has really stepped up recently is freshman C Thomas Bryant (11.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who has an outstanding 70% FG clip (136-for-194). He has scored at least 10 points in three straight games, including a double-double of 12 points and 10 boards on Tuesday. Two other Indiana players are also averaging double-figures in scoring this season, injured G James Blackmon Jr. (15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and junior F Troy Williams (12.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.1 SPG). Williams has tallied 15+ points in three of his past four games, collecting 15 points and seven rebounds at Iowa.


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