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Celtics host Heat in regular season finale Wed.
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/13/2016  at  11:42:00 AM
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MIAMI HEAT (48-33)

at BOSTON CELTICS (47-34)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

The Heat will be looking to clinch the third seed in the Eastern Conference with a win over the Celtics in Boston on Wednesday.

Miami finds itself in a tough position on Wednesday, as the team can finish anywhere from third to sixth in the Eastern Conference. A win over the Celtics would guarantee the three spot for the Heat, but the Celtics will also have a victory on their minds. If Boston can defeat Miami and Atlanta defeats Washington then the Celtics will end up as the fourth seed in the East. Home court advantage is crucial in the postseason, so this game could have the intensity of a playoff matchup. The Heat are the hotter team coming into this one, as they have now won-and-covered in two straight and four of their past five. The Celtics, meanwhile, have now lost two straight games both SU and ATS. The Celtics have, however, had the Heat’s number this season. Boston is 2-0 both SU and ATS in this head-to-head series on the year and the team is also 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS versus Miami over the past three seasons. One thing working in Miami’s favor is the fact that the team is 6-1 ATS when revenging two straight losses versus an opponent that scored 100 or more points in each meeting this season. SF Justise Winslow (Ankle) is listed as questionable for the Heat, who are already without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) and SG Tyler Johnson (Shoulder) indefinitely. The Celtics, meanwhile, are expected to be at full strength on Wednesday.

The Heat have been on fire lately and Dwyane Wade (19.1 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) will now be looking to lead his team to a third place finish in the Eastern Conference regular season standings. Over the past five games, Wade is averaging 17.0 PPG on 47.2% shooting. He’ll need to be very aggressive going to the basket against a Celtics team that lacks a true rim protector. PG Goran Dragic (14.1 PPG, 5.9 APG, 1.0 SPG) will also need to get himself to the rim in this game. Dragic has been playing extremely well for Miami, averaging 17.6 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 5.6 APG on 51.4% shooting from the field over the past five games. He’s been outstanding for the team since it finally switched to a quicker pace. Dragic must, however, come to play defensively in this one. SG Joe Johnson (12.2 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.6 RPG) could be an x-factor in this game and will certainly be crucial throughout the postseason. He poured in 25 points in a win over the Pistons on Tuesday and the Heat will need him to knock down some outside shots in this one.

The Celtics may not have a chance to get third, but they can still earn themselves a home court advantage in the first round with a win on Wednesday and some help from Atlanta. PG Isaiah Thomas (22.2 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.1 SPG) is going to need to be a lot better than he has been against Miami in this game. In two meetings with the Heat, Thomas is averaging just 14.0 PPG on 26.5% shooting from the field. He has struggled against Dragic and that can’t be the case on Wednesday. He’d be wise to try to attack the rim and draw fouls in this game. SG Avery Bradley (15.2 PPG, 1.5 SPG) is going to be very important in this game. Bradley will be covering Dwyane Wade on Wednesday and it’s important that he can at least contain the Miami superstar. C Kelly Olynyk (9.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG) is another guy that the Celtics will need a lot out of on Wednesday. Miami has a ton of size inside, so Boston needs a big man to step it up. Olynyk can be the one to give the Heat trouble, as he can stretch the floor and also finish around the rim.


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