NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference – Round 1
Tip-off: Wednesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -6.0, Total: 193.0

The Heat will be looking to get back on track with a home win in Game 5 over the Hornets on Wednesday.

The Heat looked like they were going to run away with this series heading into Game 3, but the Hornets were able to win-and-cover in each of their home games. Charlotte held Miami to less than 40% shooting from the field and the Heat have also coughed up the ball 15.5 times per game over the past two contests. The Hornets need to keep being aggressive defensively, as they are not going to win any high-scoring games with this Miami team. One thing that does favor the Heat coming into this one is that they are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS when hosting the Hornets over the past three seasons. All 10 of those games also happened to have gone OVER the total. As for trends in this game, things aren’t necessarily leaning in the Hornets’ favor. Charlotte is just 0-9 ATS off two consecutive wins against division rivals since 1996. The Hornets are also facing a Heat team that is 9-1 ATS in home games after a loss by six points or less over the past two seasons. SF Nicolas Batum (Ankle) is listed as questionable for Charlotte, which is already without SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Shoulder) for the rest of the season. Miami, meanwhile, remains without PF Chris Bosh (Blood Clot) and SG Tyler Johnson (Shoulder) indefinitely.

The Hornets have shown a lot of heart in this series, as they could have rolled over and accepted defeat after double-digit losses in Games 1 and 2. Now this series is tied and Charlotte feels it has a great chance to advance to the next round. PG Kemba Walker (24.8 PPG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) really stepped it up for the Hornets in Game 4, finishing with 34 points on 13-for-28 shooting from the field. Walker is shooting just 39.3% from the field in the postseason, but his team needs him to continue to be aggressive. He is far too quick for any of Miami’s guards to handle and he must use that speed to get to the rim. He’ll also need to continue to do a solid job defensively. PG Jeremy Lin (14.8 PPG in playoffs) also played well in Game 4, finishing the contest with 21 points, three assists and two steals in 34 minutes of action. Lin is averaging 19.5 PPG in Charlotte’s two victories in this series and just 10.0 PPG in the team’s two defeats. It’s clear that the Hornets need him to be aggressive moving forward. He is relentless when attacking the rim and puts a ton of pressure on his opponents. It’d also be big for the Hornets if SF Nicolas Batum (16.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG) made a return in Game 5. Charlotte may have won both games that he sat out, but he is very important to this team. Batum gives this team yet another guy that can handle the ball and make shots from the perimeter. He also has good length and can help defend guys like Wade the rest of the way.

The Heat have really struggled since winning the first two games in this series and they desperately need SG Dwyane Wade (18.3 PPG, 6.5 APG, 5.3 RPG, 1.0 BPG in playoffs) to show up in Game 5. Wade is averaging just 14.5 PPG over the past two contests and he needs to score a lot more than that moving forward. He is this team’s best player offensively and needs to be aggressive on Wednesday. If he can attack the basket early on then he might get himself to the line for some easy points. Wade needs some of those, as he could use a boost in confidence. PG Goran Dragic (12.5 PPG, 5.3 APG in playoffs) must also play better in this series. Kemba Walker has exploited him early on and Dragic needs to start holding his own moving forward. The Heat acquired him because they felt that he could play with any point guard in the league and he’ll need to prove that he can on this stage. Two guys that have been showing up for Miami are PF Luol Deng (20.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG in playoffs) and C Hassan Whiteside (14.8 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 3.0 BPG in playoffs). Deng has been stretching the floor with his ability to hit the outside shot and Whiteside has been a menace around the basket. They’ll need to continue to play well in this series if Miami is going to win.