StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Thunder look to close out Spurs on Thursday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 5/12/2016  at  10:07:00 AM
  Print This Article    

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (73-18)

at OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (62-30)

NBA Playoffs
Western Conference – Round 2
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:35 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -3.0, Total: 195.5

The Thunder will be looking to finish off the Spurs with a home victory in Game 6 on Thursday.

The Spurs were up by double digits at one point in Game 5, but the Thunder did not back down in that game. Oklahoma City ended up winning 95-91 as a 7.5-point favorite and now has a chance to put San Antonio away with a win. One thing the Spurs will need to really fix is their rebounding. Oklahoma City won the battle on the glass 63-44 and the Spurs are not going to be able to win games with that type of disparity. All of the trends in this game happen to favor San Antonio, though. The Spurs are an impressive 10-1 ATS revenging a straight up loss after being a favorite of seven or more versus an opponent over the past two seasons. They’re also 31-17 ATS off of an upset loss as a home favorite over the past three seasons. One positive when looking at this game is that the only player listed on the injury report is SF Kyle Singler (Illness) for Oklahoma City. He is not a rotation player for the Thunder, so hopefully injuries will not determine the outcome of this one.

The Spurs seemingly had complete control of this series heading into Game 4, but they have now lost two straight and are facing elimination on Thursday. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (22.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.4 BPG in playoffs) has been the Spurs’ x-factor in this series, as he has played horribly in the team’s losses. Over the past two games, Aldridge is averaging just 20.0 PPG on 14-for-39 shooting from the floor. He was 33-for-44 from the floor in Games 1 and 2 and San Antonio desperately needs him to start playing more efficiently. He was missing some shots that he always makes on Tuesday and it’s important that he gets it going again in Game 6. SF Kawhi Leonard (22.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.6 SPG, 1.6 BPG in playoffs) played well in Game 5, finishing the game with 26 points, six boards, four assists and five steals in 39 minutes of action. Leonard did not play well in Game 4, so it was big for him to find his game on Tuesday. He’ll need to find a way to hold his own offensively against Durant in this one. One guy that absolutely must show up for San Antonio on Thursday is PG Tony Parker (10.9 PPG, 5.6 APG in playoffs). Parker was miserable in Game 5, finishing with just nine points on 4-for-12 shooting. He is a lot better than that and can’t afford to be dominated by Westbrook once again in this one.

The Thunder are coming off of a tremendous win, as they were down big in San Antonio but ended up stealing a victory. PG Russell Westbrook (25.3 PPG, 10.7 APG, 7.2 RPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) is the guy that Oklahoma City has to thank for this 3-2 series lead. He was unstoppable in Game 5, finishing with 35 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists and two steals in 39 minutes of action. Westbrook was finishing everything around the rim and he was also 3-for-7 from the outside. That was big for him, as he is shooting just 32.8% from three in the postseason. Westbrook will need to stay in attack mode because Tony Parker and the rest of the Spurs guards do not have the speed or athleticism to stay in front of him. SF Kevin Durant (26.4 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.8 APG in playoffs) will really need to step it up for the Thunder moving forward, though. Durant is shooting just 42.8% from the floor and 28.1% from three in the playoffs. He is one of the best shooters in the world and must get back to his normal shooting numbers if the Thunder are going to continue this postseason run.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: