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Red-hot Pirates face Cardinals on Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 7/5/2016  at  10:37:00 AM
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES (42-41)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (43-39)

First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh +125, St. Louis -135, Total: 8.5

The Pirates will be looking to win their sixth straight game when they face the Cardinals in St. Louis on Tuesday.

Pittsburgh looked to be down for the count just a few weeks ago, but the team has now rattled off five straight victories and has also come away with eight wins in its past 10 games. The Pirates are pitching extremely well over that stretch, allowing three or less earned runs in five straight games. They’ll be hoping to keep that up moving forward, as their rotation had been their issue earlier in the year. The Cardinals have been playing well also, losing the first game of this series but winning three straight before suffering that defeat. This team has underperformed a little all season long, but will be hoping to come away with a series win over this Pittsburgh team. Both clubs are likely competing for a wild card spot, as the Cubs have really separated in the division. Taking the mound in this game will be LHP Steven Brault (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0 K) for the Pirates and RHP Mike Leake (5-6, 4.13 ERA, 63 K) for the Cardinals. One trend worth pointing out is the fact that Pittsburgh is 26-10 against the money line in road games with a hot bullpen whose ERA is 2.00 or better in the past 10 games over the past two seasons. St. Louis is, however, an impressive 20-6 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the past two seasons.

Steven Brault will be making his season debut for the Pirates on Tuesday and the lefty certainly deserves his shot in the big leagues. In eight AAA starts this season, Brault has a 2.57 ERA and 44 K in 35.0 innings of work. He doesn’t necessarily work deep into games, but the Pirates would be more than happy with five or six innings of solid pitching on Tuesday. It’s worth noting that Brault is not much of a power pitcher, and does most of his best work while pitching to contact. He’ll just need to make sure that he can induce grounders, as the Cardinals will take advantage of him if the ball is hanging too high in the zone on Tuesday. Offensively, 3B David Freese (.292, 8 HR, 35 RBI), OF Andrew McCutchen (.236, 12 HR, 32 RBI) and OF Starling Marte (.321, 6 HR, 31 RBI) are the guys to keep an eye on in this one. All three guys have had a ton of success against Leake in their careers, combining to go 39-for-134 with four homers and 13 RBI against the Cardinals’ starter. They’ll be hoping to keep that up against him on Tuesday.

Mike Leake has been inconsistent for the Cardinals this season, but he will be hoping to build off of a very good outing against the Royals in this one. He faced Kansas City on Jun. 30 and allowed just two earned runs in seven innings of work. He struck out just four batters in the game, but he also walked just one. It’s important that he is under control on Tuesday, as it would be a disaster if he gives the Pirates too many free baserunners. Offensively, it’d be big if OF Stephen Piscotty (.294, 10 HR, 44 RBI) could get it going for St. Louis on Tuesday. He’s been seeing the ball very well lately, getting a hit in five straight games and homering twice in the past five as well. Piscotty is St. Louis’ best weapon at the plate and the team could really use some production out of him against an inexperience pitcher like Brault. It’s also worth keeping an eye on 3B Matt Carpenter (.305, 14 HR, 53 RBI), who has seen his average rise from .296 to .305 over the past 10 games. Carpenter has four multi-hit games in the past eight contests and it would be huge if he could get on base frequently in this one as well.


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