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Colorado State, Colorado clash on Sep. 2
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 8/18/2016  at  4:35:00 PM
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COLORADO STATE RAMS (0-0)
vs. COLORADO BUFFALOES (0-0)

Sports Authority Field at Mile High – Denver
Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Colorado -7.5, Total: N/A

In-state rivals Colorado State and Colorado meet for the 79th time, and the Rams are looking for revenge after last September’s overtime thriller.

Colorado State barely missed a beat in Mike Bobo’s first season as head coach, earning their third-straight bowl berth (losing 23-28 to Nevada as three-point favorites in the Arizona Bowl). In their 7-6 (5-4 in the MWC) season, half of the Rams’ losses were by five or fewer points. Amidst a fairly easy schedule, November road wins at Wyoming, New Mexico and Fresno State were vital to finishing over .500. CSU has a lot of talent to replace in 2016, including their entire starting receiving group, most of defensive line rotation and three starters in the secondary. QB Nick Stevens and RB Dalyn Dawkins should supply plenty of offense, but the defense has only three returning starters (one at each level) from a mediocre 2015 unit. Things fell apart for Colorado after a 3-1 September, though wins against lowly UMass and FCS Nicholls State were hardly cause for optimism. The Buffs went on to lose eight of their last nine games, losing by seven or fewer points four times. Their offense loses top-producer WR Nelson Spruce, but retains most of its experience and production, including four-year starting QB Sefo Liuafau. After placing 97th nationally in scoring (24.6 PPG), CU needs a better season to compete in the Pac-12. Colorado’s defense should be better than its middling performance last year, returning nine starters. Since 2014, Colorado State is 3-1 ATS (2-2 SU) in the first two weeks of the season, while Colorado is 1-3 ATS (2-2 SU) in such games. Last year’s meeting went into overtime. In OT, the Rams’ opening-possession FG attempt was blocked, and the Buffs, four-point favorites, hit a 32-yarder to win 27-24.

Colorado State’s top-four receivers from last year are gone, including 1,000-yard WR Rashard Higgins. Junior QB Nick Stevens returns after a 2,678-yard, 21-TD, 12-INT season in which he garnered 2nd Team All-MWC honors. 6-foot-4 WR Xavier Williams (19 receptions, 231 yards), the only returning receiver with more than 10 catches last year, has shown flashes of big-play potential. The Rams need him to break out as a junior. High-school track star WR Bisi Johnson is ticketed for a starting role after a lackluster freshman campaign. Top RB Dalyn Dawkins (1,045 yards from scrimmage) and explosive No. 2 RB Izzy Matthews (590 rushing yards, 5 TD) will benefit from four starters returning on an offensive line that contributed to 198 rushing yards per game (33rd in the nation) last season. After losing their defensive coordinator (Tyson Summers, now the head coach at Georgia Southern) and eight starters, the Rams are moving to a 3-4 scheme under former linebackers coach and new defensive coordinator Marty English. The LB brigade could be a strength, as leading-tackler Kevin Davis (14 TFL, 3 sacks) returns. Starting LB Deonte Clyburn will likely miss the season because of a blood clot, but LBs Kiel Robinson, Tre Thomas and Josh Watson are experienced and solid options. Senior CB Tyree Simmons is the lone returning starter in a secondary that held opponents to 178 passing yards per game last year (9th in the nation), but won’t be as effective in 2016. Opponents averaged 213 rushing yards per game (107th) last season, and a lack of experience on the defensive line could lead to another porous run defense.

Senior QB Sefo Liafau has recovered quickly from a November foot injury, and enters the 2016 season with 7,380 passing yards, 49 passing TD, six rushing TD and 29 INT in 31 career games. Colorado scored just 17 points in two games without Liafau to end last season, and need a career year from him to compete in the Pac-12. 1,000-yard WR Nelson Spruce is gone, but junior WR Shay Fields (598 receiving yards, 4 TD) is ready to step into the spotlight. The Buffs averaged a paltry 3.7 yards per rush last season (111th in the nation). Bruising junior RB Phillip Lindsay (874 yards from scrimmage, 7 total TD) is likely to lead an improved backfield unit, while highly-touted freshman RB Beau Bisharat should contribute right away. The defense returns nine starters, and its strength is the secondary, which held opponents to 6.5 yards per pass attempt in 2015 (38th in the nation). CB Chidobe Awuzie (4 sacks, 9 TFL, 10 pass breakups) and safety Tedric Thompson (3 INT, 5 TFL) are two of the best defensive backs in the conference. Off a season allowing 199 rushing yards per game (99th in the nation), there’s plenty of experience in the linebacking corps, including LB Rick Gamboa, who led the Buffs in tackles as a freshman last season, and LB Jimmie Gilbert, last year’s leading sacker (6). DT Josh Tupou returns after a 2015 suspension, with hopes of bolstering a flimsy defensive line.


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