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Penn State faces Pittsburgh on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/6/2016  at  1:18:00 PM
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PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (1-0)
at PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (1-0)

Heinz Field – Pittsburgh, PA
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh -6.0, Total: 48.5

Having not played since 2000, Penn State and Pittsburgh will renew a 123-year-old rivalry on Saturday.

The 2015 edition of Penn State Football made a general habit of beating opponents they were supposed to while failing to win a single game in which they weren’t favored. This meant a 7-2 start (4-5 ATS) was followed by an 0-4 finish both SU and ATS, including a 55-16 loss to Michigan State to end the regular season. True sophomore QB Tate McSorley, who threw two TDs in last year’s 24-17 TaxSlayer Bowl loss to Georgia, now fully takes the reins from the embattled Christian Hackenberg. McSorley looked strong in the Nittany Lions’ season opener, completing 16 of 31 passes for 209 yards and two TDs in a 33-13 win as 23.5-point favorites over Kent State. At 8-5, Pittsburgh was one win better than Penn State last season. Upset wins over Virginia Tech and Louisville were season highlights, while a 16-point loss as a three-point underdog to Navy in the Military Bowl registered as a disappointment. Star wideout Tyler Boyd is gone to the Cincinnati Bengals, but this fall marks the triumphant return of star RB James Conner after a battle with cancer forced him to miss almost all of last year. Conner didn’t disappoint in his first game back, scoring a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown in the second quarter of Pitt’s season-opening 28-7 victory over FCS Villanova. Pat Narduzzi is 1-6 ATS in home games as head coach of the Panthers, but James Franklin is only 2-9 ATS on the road in his time at Penn State. Additionally, Franklin is 1-5 ATS coming off of wins of 17 points or more. The Nittany Lions lead the all-time series 50-42-4, and had won seven straight games in the rivalry before falling to the Panthers in the series’ most recent matchup, a 12-0 shutout in 2000.

Despite being highly-touted enough to be picked in the second round of the NFL Draft, departed QB Christian Hackenberg was something of a disappointment in Happy Valley. He finished last season with 2,525 yards passing, a completion percentage of 53.5, 16 TDs and six INTs. McSorley beat out redshirt freshman Tommy Stevens in camp to secure the job. The coaching staff won’t ask him to do much beyond game management, as he shares the backfield with a bonafide star and the centerpiece of the offense, sophomore RB Saquon Barkley. Barkley dazzled as a freshman, racking up 1,076 yards and seven TDs on 5.9 yards per carry. He proved he’s not scared of big moments, as he put up 194 yards in a loss to then-undefeated Ohio State last year. He went for 105 yards and a touchdown against Kent State last week, and should continue progressing towards midseason form against Pitt. A much-maligned offensive line that saw Hackenberg sacked over 100 times in 38 career starts returns 91 career starts, many more than past seasons and a sign that the unit may finally start to make substantial improvements. Junior WR Chris Godwin led the team with 1,101 yards receiving last season, and he looked strong in the opener with seven catches for 67 yards. The defense wreaked havoc last season, leading the nation with over 3.5 sacks per game and 24 forced fumbles. They ranked 30th in the nation in points allowed, but bring back only five starters this year. Senior LB Nyeem Wartman-White has all-conference potential if he can fully recover from a knee injury that cost him all of last season; he looked solid with five tackles in his 2016 debut. Junior FS Marcus Allen is a playmaker, as he showed when he forced a fumble in the Kent State red zone that led to a Lions touchdown two plays later.

After transferring in from Tennessee, senior QB Nathan Peterman took the starting job for good in Week 3 last year and turned in an excellent season. He only threw one interception against ACC competition, and he was second and third in the conference in completion percentage (61.5) and touchdown passes (20), respectively. Senior WR Dontez Ford is the best candidate to step up and fill the role of No. 1 wideout, but seeing as no one was really even close to receiving half as many targets as Boyd (126) last season, it will be a group effort to replace him. The Panthers have the opposite problem at running back, where Conner’s return creates a crowded backfield situation. Sophomore Qadree Ollison went for 1,121 and 11 TDs in his absence, and Ollison’s classmate Darrin Hall showed promise, as well. Four-star freshman George Hill’s arrival complicates the picture further. Conner had 17 carries in the opener, and Ollison and Hall combined for 13. Look for more rushes from the Panthers this week. Known as a defensive coach, Narduzzi should benefit greatly from the return of eight starters on that side of the ball. He’s not scared to ratchet up the blitz—Pitt was 16th nationally with 2.85 sacks per game last season—and may do so even more this year now that he’s had a full season to implement his scheme. DE Ejuan Price is good enough to occasionally disrupt an offense entirely on his own, as he did when he notched five sacks in the win over Louisville last season. Another big name is SS Jordan Whitehead, who is the reigning ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year behind 109 tackles. He’s versatile, too—the Panthers will occasionally give him touches on offense to take advantage of his explosiveness. Junior CB Avonte Maddox joins him as a standout in the secondary.


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