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49ers host Rams on Monday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/12/2016  at  11:53:00 AM
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LOS ANGELES RAMS (0-0)
at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (0-0)

Kickoff: Monday, 10:20 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -2.5, Total: 43.5

The Rams begin their return-to-L.A. season with a trip upstate to face the 49ers as Week 1 draws to a close.

The Rams ended their stay in St. Louis with nine straight losing seasons. A promising 4-3 start to 2015, which included wins over Seattle and Arizona, was followed by a five-game losing streak. Though a 7-9 result wasn’t horrible considering what a tough schedule they faced, the offense has little reason for optimism aside from the emergence of Offensive Rookie of the Year RB Todd Gurley. L.A. is waiting for first-overall draft pick QB Jared Goff to develop, though he’ll be stepping into a lineup with a weak offensive line and one of the NFL’s worst receiving groups. That also won’t be happening in Week 1, as Case Keenum will be under center in the opener. The defense will benefit from the healthy returns of 2014’s leading-tackler LB Alec Ogletree and 2014’s leading-sacker DE Robert Quinn. Led by All-Pro DT Aaron Donald, the 2016 Rams will have a dominant front seven. Life after Jim Harbaugh has been, and looks like it will continue to be, rough for San Francisco. After a Week 1, Monday Night win over Minnesota, there was little to get excited about during a 5-11 2015 season. Head coach Jim Tomsula was ousted after one season in favor of Chip Kelly, who took the Eagles to the playoffs twice before getting fired during a tumultuous 2015 season. Kelly’s up-tempo offense is no longer a mystery to opposing defenses, and the Niners don’t have much talent to run it. QBs Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick have athleticism and arm strength, but both have been wildly inconsistent as pros and have very little receiving talent to work with. Defensively, stud LB NaVorro Bowman and veteran SS Antoine Bethea can only do so much when surrounded by practice squad talent. The Rams are 4-4 ATS (4-3-1 SU) against the 49ers since Jeff Fisher took over as head coach in 2012. Last season’s matchups were split (ATS & SU). In Week 8, the Rams were 7.5-point home favorites and won 27-6 behind WR Tavon Austin’s 119 total yards and 2 TD. In Week 17, the 49ers’ Blaine Gabbert threw for 354 yards and a TD en route to a 19-16 overtime victory as three-point home underdogs. The Rams are 6-14-1 ATS (7-14 SU) in games where the line is +4 to -4 since 2013. San Francisco is 3-9 ATS & SU versus NFC West teams since 2014, but went 3-0 ATS & SU as a home underdog of 3 points or less in 2015. A Super Situation favoring the 49ers to consider: Non-favorites who were a bad team the previous season (winning 25% to 40% of their games) are 61-30 ATS in conference games over the last 10 seasons. San Francisco will be without OLB Aaron Lynch (suspension).

Second-year RB Todd Gurley (1,294 yards from scrimmage, 10 TD in 13 games) is the alpha and omega of L.A.’s offense, and there’s very little talent around him. The Rams were the fifth most run-heavy team last season, and would like to rise from there; though if Gurley goes down (he’s 22 months removed from a torn ACL), there are no good options to replace him in the backfield. QB Case Keenum is starting the opener, but will soon give way to first-overall pick QB Jared Goff. Both will play behind a shaky o-line with one of the league’s worst receiving groups. WR Tavon Austin (907 yards from scrimmage, 9 TD) has found some success lining up all over the formation, including in the backfield. WRs like Kenny Britt and Brian Quick wouldn’t crack the roster of most teams, but they’re destined for major roles on the 2016 Rams. The Rams defense was less dominant than expected in 2015, allowing 20.6 points per game (13th in the NFL) and 5.4 yards per play (12th). They will get a huge boost from the healthy returns of LB Alec Ogletree (missed 12 games with a broken leg) and DE Robert Quinn (missed 8 games with knee, hip and back problems). A disruptive defensive line is anchored by DT Aaron Donald (11 sacks), a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. CB Trumaine Johnson (7 INT) is a great fit in L.A.’s pressure-contingent coverage scheme, though the loss of CB Janoris Jenkins to the Giants in free agency creates a void.

The 2015 49ers scored the fewest points in the NFL (14.9 PPG) in 2015. New head coach Chip Kelly’s up-tempo spread offense had its moments in Philadelphia despite all the talent Kelly dumped from the team, and both QBs competing for the starting gig Blaine Gabbert has the mobility and arm strength to theoretically make the system work. It’s anyone’s guess which inexperienced receivers will get targets underneath, and deep threat WR Torrey Smith (33 receptions, 663 yards, 4 TD) is not the speedster he once was. RB Carlos Hyde (470 rushing yards, 3 TD in 7 games) should be comfortable in Kelly’s system and expects a breakout season, though the offensive line is flimsy, especially in the interior. Defensive coordinator Jim O’Neal helmed a Browns defense that finished 29th in points allowed and 27th in yards allowed last season. San Francisco didn’t fare much better, finishing 19th in scoring (24.2 PPG), 29th in yardage (387 YPG) and 31st in takeaways (12). O’Neal’s vanilla system won’t do much to help a unit bereft of talent. The secondary should improve with the return of SS Antoine Bethea, a Pro Bowl player in 2014 who missed nine games in 2015 with a torn pectoral. ILB NaVorro Bowman (the NFL’s leading tackler in 2015) is one of the best defensive players in football, and OLBs Ahmad Brooks and Aaron Lynch (6.5 sacks each) are decent edge-rushers, though the latter is suspended for four games to start the season. The Niners need DLs DeForest Bucker (this year’s first round draft pick) and Arik Armstead (2015’s first-rounder) to make strides and improve a feeble defensive line.


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