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Red Sox face Blue Jays in Toronto Friday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/9/2016  at  10:56:00 AM
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BOSTON RED SOX (78-61)

at TORONTO BLUE JAYS (77-62)

First pitch: Friday, 7:05 p.m. ET
Line: Boston -110, Toronto +100, Total: 8.5

The Red Sox will be looking for their third straight win when they take on the Blue Jays in Toronto on Friday.

Boston has won three straight series coming into this one against Toronto, but this one is more important than any of those. The Red Sox and Blue Jays are currently battling for the top spot in the AL East, and the winner of this series will surely do themselves a lot of good in that race. While the Orioles are also in that conversation, they are two games behind the Red Sox and the Blue Jays are only one back. Boston and Toronto have already met 13 times this season and Toronto has gotten the best of this head-to-head, going 7-6 in those contests. The starters in this Friday night matchup are set to be RHP Rick Porcello (19-3, 3.23 ERA, 154 K) for the Red Sox and RHP Marco Estrada (8-7, 3.56 ERA, 137 K) for the Blue Jays. One trend that sticks out in this game is the fact that Toronto is 33-10 against the money line in home games versus teams that average 0.6 or fewer errors per game in the second half of the season over the past two years. C Russell Martin (Knee) is questionable for the Jays in this game, as he hurt himself in the final game of the Yankees series.

The Red Sox have won two straight and Rick Porcello will be hoping to keep things going for the team on Friday. The righty has been exceptional recently, allowing three or fewer earned runs in eight consecutive starts. Porcello also happens to have pitched at least seven innings in each of those outings. If he can turn in another performance like that on Friday then the Red Sox will be extremely happy with him. Porcello has, however, struggled against Toronto this season. Despite a 2-0 record against the Jays, he has allowed 11 earned runs in 19 innings of work in those games. Boston will need him to be better than that in this one. Offensively, the Sox could use a lift from guys like OF Mookie Betts (.316, 30 HR, 100 RBI) and DH David Ortiz (.318, 31 HR, 107 RBI). Betts is hitless against Estrada in his career, but he is one of the best hitters in baseball and it’s only a matter of time before he figures him out. Ortiz, meanwhile, is 3-for-17 with two homers and four RBI against Estrada. It’d be big for the Sox if Ortiz can take him yard in this one as well.

The Blue Jays just got swept by the Yankees and they now need to earn some wins over the Red Sox in order to keep things close in the AL East. Marco Estrada is set to start in this one and the righty is coming off of a rough outing against the Rays on Sep. 3. Estrada allowed five earned runs on seven hits in just five innings of work in that game. Toronto will need him to work deeper in this one, and he also must find a way to miss more bats. He has allowed five or more earned runs in three of the past four games and has given up six homers in that span. Too many hitters are getting good contact off of Estrada, so he’ll need to change something fast. Offensively, the two guys to keep an eye on in this game are OF Jose Bautista (.228, 17 HR, 55 RBI) and 1B/DH Edwin Encarnacion (.267, 37 HR, 112 RBI). The two of them are a combined 27-for-68 with five doubles, six homers and 19 RBI against Rick Porcello. They should be able to do plenty of damage in this one as well.


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