Nippert Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -7.5, Total: NA

Cincinnati hosts a #6 Houston team that is beginning to look more and more like a national power.

Other than January’s Peach Bowl win over Florida State, Houston’s Week 1 triumph over Oklahoma may have been the biggest win in program history. Prior to the team’s Week 2 game against Lamar, star QB Greg Ward Jr. and starting RB Duke Catalon were scratched from the lineup due to injury. On top of all that, a lightning storm delayed the game midway through the first quarter for over three hours. So it would have been forgivable—or at least unsurprising—if the Cougars had let the Cardinals hang around a bit. They didn’t. Houston came away with a 42-0 victory, moving to 2-0 (1-0-1 ATS) on the season without incident. Cincinnati opened the season at home against Tennessee-Martin with a not-particularly-impressive 28-7 win as 37.5-point favorites. They were much more convincing as three-point favorites last week at Purdue, where they took down the Boilermakers 38-20. Already with a few games of starting experience under his belt, sophomore QB Hayden Moore controlled the game throughout, completing 19-of-32 passes for 250 yards and three TD. Senior WR Nate Cole caught six balls for 82 yards and two TD, while, on defense, senior cornerback Mike Tyson had three of the team’s four interceptions. Since 1992, home underdogs of 3.5-10 points that had a winning record the previous season (Cincinnati was 7-6) are 78-38 ATS. In the same timeframe, road favorites of the same margin that finished the previous season with three or more consecutive wins are 17-50 ATS in the first month of the season. Over the last three seasons, Houston is 8-0 ATS in road games played on turf. As head coach of Houston, Tom Herman is 10-5 overall ATS and 6-1 in road games ATS. Houston was 9-5 against the spread last season, while Cincinnati was 6-7.

It’s fully anticipated that Ward will return to action on Thursday, and it’s a good thing: Houston’s one loss last year, a 20-17 defeat to UConn on November 21, came in a game that Ward missed almost all of due to injury. When he did play, he was one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country, passing for 2,828 yards on the season and rushing for 1,108. Houston was second in the country with 39 rushes of over 20 yards, and Ward accounted for 16 of those. He was brilliant in the opener against a talented Oklahoma secondary, completing 23-of-40 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns. Catalon also looks to be back this week, and they’ll need him, too. Houston graduated its five leading non-QB rushers from last year, with the leading returner, sophomore RB Kaliq Kokuma, having rushed for 92 yards last season. Catalon redshirted a year at Texas before sitting out a year at Houston as a transfer, so his first collegiate action was the Oklahoma game, in which he carried 22 times for 88 yards. There seems to be depth in the backfield, though, as three rushed for over 100 yards in his absence against Lamar: Junior QB Kyle Postma (filling in for Ward), redshirt freshman RB Kevrin Justice and freshman RB Mulbah Carr. Leading 2015 wideout Demarcus Ayers is gone to the NFL, but plenty returns in the receiving corps. Junior WR Steven Dunbar has the most catches and yards so far this season (nine for 132), most of which came against Oklahoma. Houston was a decent 55th in the country last year for total defense with 381 yards allowed per game, and holding the elite Sooners offense to 393 was a good sign. They lead the FBS over the last three seasons with 108 forced turnovers, and have caused three so far this season. Standouts on defense include senior DE Cameron Malveaux and senior LB Steven Taylor.

Many were surprised in late August when Cincinnati head coach Tommy Tuberville (whose actions should never surprise anyone) announced Moore the starter at quarterback over senior Gunner Kiel. Kiel has had a winding career in college football, entering as the No. 1 QB recruit in his class before transferring to Cincy from Notre Dame. He started every game for the Bearcats in 2014 and ten of them last season, missing a few due to a head injury. But Moore beat him out this spring, and has played well thus far this season (60.6 percent passing, 510 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT). The Bearcats had three rushers with between 700 and 800 yards last season, and two of them return this year: Senior Tion Greene and junior Mike Boone. They’re the team’s leading rushers with 150 and 113 yards, respectively. Sophomore Kahlil Lewis, a wide receiver, led the team in rushing against Purdue, taking his one carry of the day 79 yards. The team lost its top five receivers from last year, with Cole having the most catches last season of anyone returning. Junior WR Devin Gray had zero career catches entering the season, but leads the team after two games with 167 yards. Defensively, the Bearcats were miserable against the run last season, finishing 94th nationally with 190.4 rushing yards allowed per game. They’ve got that number down to 140 in their two games so far this year, but have yet to face a good running offense. Ward, Catalon and the rest of the Cougars will provide the unit and its eight returning starters with its first real test of the 2016 season.