Tiger Stadium – Baton Rouge, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -14.0, Total: 44.5

#20 LSU will be looking to improve to 2-1 when the team hosts Mississippi State on Saturday.

Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs got off to a miserable start this season, losing 21-20 as 28-point home favorites against South Alabama. They did, however, bounce back with a 27-14 victory as eight-point home favorites against South Carolina. That win over an SEC program should give Mississippi State some confidence heading into this game, but LSU is a whole different animal. The Tigers also dropped their first game of the season, losing 16-14 as a 12.5-point favorite against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. They responded with a 34-13 victory as 30-point home favorites versus Jacksonville State. LSU did, however, play that one without RB Leonard Fournette (1,953 yards, 22 TD in 2015). Fournette is dealing with a sore ankle, but he is expected to be back for this game against Mississippi State. LSU won 21-19 as a three-point road favorite when these teams met in 2015, but the Bulldogs won 34-29 as seven-point underdogs when they last visited LSU (Sep. 20, 2014). Still, LSU is 22-2 SU and 18-6 ATS versus Mississippi State since 1992 and will be looking to continue that dominance this time around. The trends are also in LSU’s favor, as the Tigers have this trend working for them: Mississippi State is a miserable 4-15 ATS in road games after allowing seven or less points in the first half of two straight games since 1992.

Mississippi State rebounded from its opening week loss to South Alabama and the team could surely salvage this season with a win in Baton Rouge. The Bulldogs seemingly found themselves a starting quarterback in the win over South Carolina, as Nick Fitzgerald (178 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT) was fantastic under center. Fitzgerald didn’t get to play much against South Alabama, but he was 19-for-29 with 178 yards, two touchdowns and one interception against the Gamecocks. He also was unstoppable on the ground, rushing for 195 yards in the game. Fitzgerald’s ability to run the ball allows Dan Mullen to run an offense similar to what he had with Dak Prescott a year ago. The team will be hoping that he can find some success against a very talented LSU defense on Saturday. Helping Fitzgerald on offense will be WR Fred Ross (12 rec, 90 yards, 1 TD). Ross had five receptions for 39 yards and a touchdown against South Carolina, but he also threw for one on a trick play. Ross had 88 receptions for 1,007 yards and five touchdowns as Dak Prescott’s favorite receiver a year go. If Fitzgerald can make some decent throws then Ross should find some success against LSU on Saturday. Defensively, Mississippi State will need to figure out a way to stop the run in this one. The Tigers aren’t much of a threat in the passing game, but Fournette can win this one by himself and the Bulldogs need to make sure that does not happen.

LSU has seemingly decided to move on from QB Brandon Harris (139 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT) and if that’s the case then it was the right decision from head coach Les Miles. It’s also a decision that should have been made a long time ago. Harris has no confidence in his ability to throw the ball and his poor decisions played a huge factor in the Tigers losing to the Badgers in the season opener. The job now likely belongs to Danny Etling, who threw for 100 yards, one touchdown and one pick after coming into the game last week. Etling doesn’t need to do much, as he’d be a major improvement over Harris as long as he keeps the ball out of the opponent’s hands. The real source of offense for this team is going to be Leonard Fournette. As long as Fournette is something close to 100% then he should shred the Bulldogs on the ground. He rushed 28 times for 159 yards and three touchdowns when these teams met last season and the Bulldogs are nowhere near as good as they were in 2015. Defensively, the Tigers have one of the best units in the nation and should be able to figure out a way to stifle Mississippi State in this one. They’ll just need to find a way to stop Fitzgerald from running all over them from the quarterback position.