Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -3, Total: 48

#7 Stanford will be hoping to make a statement with a road win over conference rival UCLA on Saturday.

Stanford RB Christian McCaffrey absolutely torched UCLA last season. In a game that both teams entered with 4-1 records, he rushed for a school-record 243 yards and four touchdowns—and finished with 369 all-purpose yards—en route to a 56-35 Cardinals win. It was McCaffrey’s best game of the year, which is saying something, considering he had three 200-yard rushing performances and broke Barry Sanders’ single-season record for total yardage. The teams headed in separate directions thereafter, as UCLA went on to finish 4-3 while Stanford went 7-1 with a conference title and a Rose Bowl victory. The momentum appears to have carried over to this season for the Cardinal, who opened with a 26-13 win over Kansas State (STAN -11.5) and, after a bye week, dismantled rival USC 27-10 (-7). McCaffrey (298 rushing yards, 106 receiving yards, 4 total TDs) has been his dominant self, Ryan Burns (68.8 CMP%, 258 yards, 2 TDs, INT) has looked comfortable in his new role as starting quarterback, and the defense has allowed very little scoring. UCLA has also recaptured its form from late last season, which is best described as “shaky.” 0-3 against the spread, the Bruins opened with a 31-24 loss on the road against a talented Texas A&M team, took care of UNLV 42-21 at home and held off BYU in Provo, 17-14. In the first month of the season, road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that finished the previous season with three or more straight wins (Stanford) are 32-10 ATS in the past ten seasons. Over the past five seasons, home underdogs averaging less than 7.5 yards per punt return (UCLA) are 74-33 ATS. David Shaw is 45-24 against the spread as head coach of Stanford. UCLA opened at -1 before the line quickly shifted to favoring Stanford.

The coaches and players that comprise UCLA’s defense have probably not stopped having nightmares of Christian McCaffrey since he shredded them nearly a year ago. There was no shame in giving up serious yardage to McCaffrey last season, but his game against UCLA was on another level entirely. It wasn’t entirely surprising, though, as the Bruin’s run defense was 88th in the country at 187.8 yards allowed per game, a product of a unit that was inexperienced, plagued by injuries and, well, just not that good at stopping the run. Early signs this year—which are probably reliable, considering their challenging out-of-conference schedule—suggest that they’ve improved. They’re allowing 133.7 rush yards per game, good for 55th in the country. Making that possible is the return of nine defensive starters and, just as critically, the return of DT Eddie Vanderdoes, who missed all of last season to injury. There was concern when he missed the second half of the UNLV game due to his left knee, but he returned to play well against BYU. A renowned secondary led by safeties Jaleel Wadood and Randall Goforth and CB Fabian Moreau is 41st in the country in pass defense. On offense, celebrity QB Josh Rosen (60.5 CMP%, 907 yards, 4 TD, 4 INT) has been somewhat inconsistent in his sophomore season—at least by his own diagnosis. While he finished 26-of-40 for 307 yards and two touchdowns (and an interception) against BYU, he referred to his performance as a “step back.” A similar performance against Stanford’s stingy D would represent a step forward, especially if it came with a W. Rosen’s classmate Soso Jamabo (34 rushes, 181 yards, 3 TDs) missed the BYU game for reasons known only to Jim Mora Jr., and it’s unknown if he’ll suit up against Stanford. RB Nate Starks made his season debut in Jamabo’s place and only gained 39 yards on 15 carries. WR Darren Andrews (10 catches, 160 yards, TD) leads UCLA in receiving, but Rosen tends to spread the ball around—eight players have at least 50 receiving yards.Ryan Burns certainly looks the part of a Stanford starting quarterback. At six-foot-five and 235 pounds, calling to mind the formidable frame of Andrew Luck. And, as a redshirt junior, he’s had adequate time to master and command the Cardinal’s pro-style offense, a system that places significant decision-making responsibilities on its signal-callers. It’s also in the nature of the offense that Burns won’t accumulate many huge stat lines; despite turning in a well-reviewed performance against USC, he only finished 9-of-15 for 109 yards, a touchdown and an interception. (His 156 yards against Kansas State weren’t mind-boggling, either.) Of course, the offense at large can accommodate big numbers, and no one puts up bigger ones than McCaffrey. He’s been an absolute workhorse, carrying the ball 53 times already and also pulling in 10 receptions, twice as much as anyone else on the team. Add that to the work he puts in on special teams, and it’s hard not to wonder whether such a load is sustainable over the course of a schedule that may very well be 14 games. Michael Rector (5 catches, 76 yards, TD) was the team’s leading wide receiver last season with 559 yards. Since Shaw has shown little inclination to give significant touches to anyone other than McCaffrey, it’s difficult to imagine how they would adapt if he were missing from the lineup, or even mildly hampered by injury. And with no easy games on the schedule, save for perhaps Rice in the regular season finale, it’s hard to see a week where Shaw would rest him. While two games is not a lot to draw from, it does seem appropriate that Stanford ranks fifth in the Pac-12 in total defense and fourth in rushing defense, despite playing pretty tough competition. It’s ninth in pass defense, though, which could be some cause for concern against a motivated Rosen. The defense’s strength is its linebacking core, and OLB Peter Kalambayi is its heart.