TDECU Stadium – Houston, TX
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -27.5, Total: NA

After a discouraging loss to Syracuse, Connecticut must face a mighty #6 Houston team that’s hungry for revenge.

UConn football has made a habit of playing close games this season, with the games in their thus-far 2-2 campaign (0-4 ATS) being decided by an average margin of 4.25 points per game. The season got off to an inauspicious start when the Huskies hosted FBS Maine in the opener and needed a blocked field goal and a kick of their own to edge out the Black Bears 24-21 in the game’s final seconds. They played better against a now-3-0 Navy team that won 11 games last year, but still fell 28-24 as 3.5-point underdogs. They once again barely failed to cover in Week 3, but still took down a major-conference foe with a 13-10 home win against Virginia (UConn -3.5) in a game that bypassed overtime when UVA’s kicker missed a 20-yard field goal as time expired. The Huskies’ most recent game was an unqualified disappointment, as Syracuse came to East Hartford on a two-game losing skid and came away victorious, 31-24 (UConn -2.5). Houston (4-0, 3-0-1 ATS), on the other hand, has not played any close games, unless you count a decisive 10-point, program-changing win over Oklahoma in the opener as 13.5-point underdogs. A 42-0 win over Lamar in Week 2 (UH -42) and a 64-3 win against Texas State last week (UH -31.5) were the laughers everyone expected, and a late-game momentum swing helped the Cougars put away tough conference foe Cincinnati on the road, 40-16 (UH -7). Over the past 10 seasons, home favorites coming off of three straight games putting up 525 or more total yards with five defensive starters returning—Houston has exactly five—are 42-17 against the spread. In the same time frame, home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points outrushing their opponents by 60 or more yards per game are 23-3 against the spread after allowing 40 or fewer rushing yards in their previous game. Houston will be out for revenge after Connecticut gave them their only loss last season, a 20-17 November stunner in East Hartford.

Even as much as anyone could “deserve” to win a 13-10 game between subpar football teams, UConn probably didn’t deserve to beat Virginia. They came back from a 10-0 second-quarter deficit despite being outgained 381-277—being both outrushed and outpassed—gaining 18 first downs to UVA’s 21, and committing two turnovers to Virginia’s one. QB Bryant Shirreffs (66.9 CMP%, 819 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) played ugly in the win, completing 13-of-24 passes for 154 yards and an interception. Shirreffs’ play has generally trended downward in the early going this season, with QB ratings of 75.3 against Maine, 77.2 against Navy, 37.1 against Virginia and finally 29.7 against Syracuse. His play in that game (27-for-45 passing, 264 yards, TD, INT) wasn’t really the problem, though. Rather, it was Connecticut’s pass defense giving up 407 yards to Syracuse QB Eric Dungey, and more specifically a mind-blowing 270 yards (and two touchdowns) to WR Amba Etta-Tawo, who set a ‘Cuse record for receiving yards. The Huskies had four more first downs than the Orange, possessed the ball for 38:29 of game time and only committed a single turnover. But the pass rush and secondary couldn’t come through, including on a 99-yard fourth-quarter Syracuse scoring drive that put the game away. The pass defense now ranks 99th in the country with 261.8 yards allowed per game. The rushing defense, however, has been better, ranking 35th with 119.3 yards allowed per game. The running attack has been holding the offense back, ranking 98th with 139.3 yards per game, and lead back Arkeel Newsome (211, 2 TDs) is nowhere near the league leaders with his 4.1 yards per carry.

While few had any doubt that they would come away with a big victory, Houston still impressed as heavy favorites at Texas State. QB Greg Ward (65.7 CMP%, 936 yards, 5 TDs, 2 INTs in three games), who’s still lurking on the outskirts of the Heisman race, put up a nearly impeccable performance, completing 20-of-26 passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns. After missing the Lamar game with a shoulder injury, he turned in what may have been his best all-around performance of the season so far in Week 3 at Cincinnati, passing for 326 yards and a touchdown, and running for 73 and two more. His dual threat skill set will present a formidable challenge to a UConn defense that has struggled against far lesser quarterback talents this year. RB Duke Catalon (48 carries, 225 yards, TD) has been exactly as good as the Cougars have needed him to be, and Kevrin Justice (34 carries, 149 yards, 2 TDs) and Mulbah Car (30 carries, 147 yards, TD) have been effective in getting significant carries. WRs Linell Bonner (21 catches, 280 yards, TD) and Steven Dunbar (16 carries, 229 yards, TD) lead a receiving corps in which no one has caught more than one of the team’s six touchdown passes. The breakout star against North Texas was freshman utility player D’Eriq King, who threw a 15-yard touchdown pass, had a 27-yard run, caught four balls for 61 yards and a touchdown and also returned a kickoff for a touchdown. He became the first Houston player to ever throw, catch and return a kick for a touchdown in the same game, obviously. The defense has been stifling, ranking fifth in the country with 229 yards allowed per game. LB Steven Taylor and freshman DL Ed Oliver have been prominent in the shutdowns.