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#16 Miami hosts UNC on Saturday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/11/2016  at  4:18:00 PM
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NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (4-2)
at MIAMI HURRICANES (4-1)

Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Miami -9.0, Total: 64.5

Both North Carolina and #16 Miami will be hoping to get back into the win column when the teams meet at Hard Rock Stadium on Saturday.

North Carolina is coming off of a pitiful performance last week, as the Tar Heels lost 34-3 as a 2.5-point home underdog against #17 Virginia Tech. It is particularly disappointing for the team, as UNC was coming off of an impressive 37-35 victory as a 10.5-point road ‘dog against #14 Florida State. The Tar Heels do, however, get to face a Hurricanes team that they completely demolished last season. North Carolina defeated Miami 59-21 as an 11.5-point home favorite in this matchup last year, ending a two-game losing streak against the Hurricanes. Miami will be out for revenge in this one, though. This is an improved Hurricanes team on both sides of the ball and it will be hoping to put last week’s nightmarish loss to Florida Sate in the past. The Hurricanes scored what should have been the game tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter in that one, but the Seminoles blocked Miami’s extra point to win 20-19 as 1.5-point underdogs. One trend that seriously favors the Hurricanes in this game is the fact that North Carolina is 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams averaging eight or more passing yards per attempt over the past three seasons. Miami could, however, be without WR Stacy Coley (Knee) in this game, as he is listed as questionable for Saturday. North Carolina, meanwhile, is hoping that RB Elijah Hood (Undisclosed) returns after missing the Virginia Tech game last week.

North Carolina was miserable last week and the team will be out to turn things around with a big road win over Miami. QB Mitch Trubisky (1,769 yards, 13 TD, 2 INT) is the guy that’ll need to really step his game up in this one. After throwing for 13 touchdowns and zero picks in his previous four games, Trubisky was just 13-of-33 with no touchdowns and two interceptions against Virginia Tech last week. The Hokies have a good defense, but that performance was unacceptable for Trubisky and he’ll need to bounce back with a big game against the Hurricanes on Saturday. If he is able to do that then you can expect some eye-popping numbers from WR Ryan Switzer (49 rec, 589 yards, 2 TD). Switzer had racked up 30 receptions for 366 yards in his previous two games before having just two catches for two yards against Virginia Tech. He is an excellent route runner with a ton of quickness and should find some holes in Miami’s defense this weekend. The status of RB Elijah Hood (338 yards, 4 TD) could go a long way in determining the outcome of this game as well. Hood missed the Virginia Tech game last week, and he is one of the better runners in the ACC. If he can get himself back on the field on Saturday then he should be able to wear down this Miami defense like Dalvin Cook did a week ago. As for UNC’s defense, stopping the run is going to be crucial. Miami likes to pound away and then use its success on the ground to utilize the play action pass. If North Carolina can make it difficult to run then the Hurricanes will need to adjust drastically.

Miami suffered a heartbreaking defeat at the hands of Florida State last week, but this is a big ACC matchup with North Carolina and the Hurricanes need to focus on the task at hand. QB Brad Kaaya (1,149 yards, 10 TD, 4 INT) is the guy that must lead his team coming into this one. Kaaya was 19-for-32 with 214 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT in the loss to Florida State, but he did throw a clutch touchdown pass that should have sent the game to overtime. Playing a pressure-filled game like that one should make the rest of the season easier on Kaaya. It also helps that he is facing a North Carolina defense that is very capable of being shredded on any given week. The running game will, however, be where Miami does most of its damage. The Tar Heels have allowed 180 or more rushing yards in each of their six games this season and this Hurricanes team has a very talented backfield. Look for RBs Mark Walton (484 yards, 8 TD) and Joseph Yearby (360 yards, 5 TD) to both rush for around 100 yards on Saturday. Miami knows that running the ball successfully will wear out this UNC defense and keep the Hurricanes defense off the field.


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